Just Like clockwork...

[12squared]

Small-Cap Breadth Momentum crossed below MA(4) guard rail yesterday. NYSE, &mid-caps approaching.

+Small-Cap Breadth Momentum 7Jul23-7Sep23.png

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21IT ... 5116119973
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21IT ... 2287198185
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21IT ... 7468455518
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21IT ... 3396451602

NYSE Bullish Percentage index diverging from $DWCPF today, is telling me to cut my losses.

+BPNYA 7Jul23-7Sep23 1148.png

[jatelle]

Strong day today from the indexes despite the hot data reports. Today was the highest volume of the last 11 sessions. Tomorrow (Friday) is TRIPLE WITCHING. Dealer Deltas are very well balanced heading into OpEx which could lead to some volatility as opposing positions are unwound simultaneously.

SPY is now several dollars back above the moving averages and now must attempt the Inside Week Breakout and fill the Bear Gap at 455.49. Bulls will want to fill it sooner than later and put in a higher high in our recent uptrend from the 433 bounce that kicked off during August OpEx.

If we reject harshly, we may need to retreat to re-test the Daily 50 SMA currently at 447.27.

.

[jatelle]

I know not everyone likes or understands this macro/quant flow stuff but this Cem Karsan is super smart and is very much worth a listen. He aptly remarks that "time is not a Bear's friend" and their window to breakdown this market is rapidly closing as we approach the end of the year. Seasonality wise we are entering a strong seasonal period for flow of liquidity into the market.

Cem Karsan Talks Volatility Trends & OpEx Flows
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ZkKzXZYrwdJv?t=6m14s

[jatelle]

This Bears have taken full advantage of this window to breakdown the market and have created yet another bear gap. However, the real test is coming up with the Daily 200 MA just below currently at 418 where there will be Demand with potential buyers lined up to buy it back and try to fill this latest bear gap at 438.43. Breaking and holding below this 200 MA will bring bigger downside.

[tnwhiskey]

This Bears have taken full advantage of this window and are trying to breakdown the market and have created yet another bear gap. However, the real test is coming up with the Daily 200MA average just below currently at 418 where there will be Demand with potential buyers lined up to buy it back and want to fill the bear gap at 455.49. Breaking and holding below this 200 MA will bring bigger downside.

What do you think the current area of support is? I'm not a chartist by any means but it doesn't look quite clear, especially when the 10, 20, 50, and 100 MAs have been broken. Maybe it will freefall to the 200MA and hang out there?

[jatelle]

This Bears have taken full advantage of this window and are trying to breakdown the market and have created yet another bear gap. However, the real test is coming up with the Daily 200MA average just below currently at 418 where there will be Demand with potential buyers lined up to buy it back and want to fill the bear gap at 455.49. Breaking and holding below this 200 MA will bring bigger downside.

What do you think the current area of support is? I'm not a chartist by any means but it doesn't look quite clear, especially when the 10, 20, 50, and 100 MAs have been broken. Maybe it will freefall to the 200MA and hang out there?

Yes, the Daily 200 EMA (currently at 426) and the Daily 200 SMA (currently at 418) are likely "line in the sand" pivots for a bull bounce. But I am paying special attention to the bear gaps - the latest one at 438.43 and then 455.49 (which the bulls tried but failed to fill on Sept 1). If the bulls bounce but cannot fill these bear gaps then this would indicate a much larger downside is forthcoming.

[jatelle]

Today SPY bounced, to the tick, off the Weekly up trendline (from the low of Oct 10 2022) at 422.29. This is a major pivot point. Next goal for the bulls is to fill the bear gap at 438.53 and close above the Weekly 20 SMA at 438.74. If they can't then the next support is at the Daily 200 SMA at 418.61

[jatelle]

It is "Do or Die" time for the Bulls. The YTD AVWAP and Daily 200 SMA have converged as final support @ 419.17. Below this is a volume profile gap with the Daily Volume Point of Control (VPOC) all the way down at ~411 where we can see quite the Demand Zone from March-May of this year. The VIX tapped 20 today (bearish fear pivot). Will it reject or keep pushing higher?

[jatelle]

Today there was strong buyers interest with SPY closing above 432.27 to end the One Time Framing down. However, with that said I am still not sold just yet on this rally. There is still a lot of overhead selling pressure around the Supply Zone between 436-440 and at the Daily 20 SMA (433.65). The Bears will be fiercely protecting their Gap from being filled at 438.53. If you look back you will see the charts are very similar to March 2-6, 2023 when SPY similarly bounced off the Daily 200 SMA for a few days but failed to close above the Daily 20 SMA. It then pulled back for a week to a new bottom which was the start of the real rally on March 13. Question is will this rally continue or will we flush?

[jatelle]

Today the bulls continued their run pushing price higher to close above the Daily 20 SMA. They were able to break half way through the bear gap before getting pushed back after noon. The VIX confirmed the strength of price by dropping below 16.8. Next price target is to fill the bear gap at 438.53 and close above the Weekly 20 SMA at 440.08 and then the Daily 50 SMA at 440.52.

[jatelle]

Today the Bears continued their control posting a big red day on average volume starting to make lower lows on the weekly and heading toward a few key areas on the charts. Price is now sitting right below the Weekly 50 SMA (yellow line) as it intersects with the Weekly 100 SMA (green line).

There are 4 more sessions in October and SPY is currently down 2.32% on the month. If it ends red, it will be the third straight red month for the first time since the COVID crash.

We’re dropping into a large Demand Zone (Bull zone) that roughly spans from about 415-404 marked by the Fibonacci's. At the top of the zone is the 50% of the January 2022 fib at 414.05, and at the bottom is the 50% of the October 2022 Rally fib at 403.78. Mid-point of the zone is the Weekly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) at 410.51 (dark red line) and the Daily VPOC at 411.23. Also mid-zone is the Bull Gap to fill at 407.27 which the bulls will be staunchly defending.

[jatelle]

The SPY sell-off continued today on greater volume with price closing below the 50% of the January 2022 Fib. So heading deeper into the Demand Zone to test the VPOCs. The Daily Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) plunged today to 25.7. Note: an RSI below 30 is considered "oversold" and attracts buyers.
Speaking of buyers a MASSIVE Bullish Darkpool (DP) purchase came in today by an institutional buyer to buy $1.36B of IWM (S-Fund) shares at $163.60. This is BIG money as DP prints for IWM are typically only $100-200M as seen in the screenshot.

So are we approaching a bounce? Dead cat one at least?

[bloobs]

....a MASSIVE Bullish Darkpool (DP) purchase came in today by an institutional buyer to buy $1.36B of IWM (S-Fund) shares at $163.60....

Ja - how are you getting data that determines if these pooled transactions are buys or sells? Great job BTW with the TA

[jatelle]

....a MASSIVE Bullish Darkpool (DP) purchase came in today by an institutional buyer to buy $1.36B of IWM (S-Fund) shares at $163.60....

Ja - how are you getting data that determines if these pooled transactions are buys or sells? Great job BTW with the TA

Thanks Bloobs! I am studying hard at learning Technical Analysis and understanding Price Action for trading. Good question about how to know if the DPs are buy orders or sell orders. I subscribe to Tradytics which is where I study market data and get the DP print info. DPs buy/sell orders are only posted publicly 24 hours after the fact to maintain confidentiality for the big institutional buyers/sellers. Big money likes to keep their money secret.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_pool ... g%20public.

Tradytics initially assigns a color based on the market price at the time of posting. A DP print is assigned red (bearish) if it is above price and green (bullish) if it is below price. It is often correct but apparently not 100% reliable. Something I should have added as a caveat...sorry about that. It now appears that this huge IWM DP was in fact a bearish print and Tradytics has adjusted their data.

[jatelle]

Selling pressure continued today driving price further down into the Demand Zone and with price closing @410.73 below the previous day's low and below the VPOCs. Next the Bears will attempt to fill the Bull Gap (407.27) created by the breakout off the low on May 4/23. Interesting the Daily RSI dipped to 24 today just one shy of 23 where it was back on May 4/23 @403.74. The index is now very oversold and selling below its fair value so expect institutional buyers to step in soon to buy it back at these discount prices.