Just Like clockwork...

[jatelle]

Yep you called it right Bloobs. Today was OpEx and Dealers were needing to unwind a ton of bearish positions sold to customers. Going into Friday puts made up 85% of all the SPY contracts expiring with almost $9B in total deltas. When dealers de-hedge sold puts to customers, they buy back the underlying because they want to stay neutral and this can cause upward moves which is what happened today.

[wingchaser]

My picker is obviously broken (recently), while bein’ tightly correlated as to how full my life is @ the moment…

…& no, I’m not complaining!!!

My cup runnetth over & spilleth out onto the street, just not my Financial Cup…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[jatelle]

Strong day today for SPY even before NVDA earnings beat with a Daily close over the 10 SMA and the after hours pop getting it over the 50 SMA. Now looking to see it close above the 20 SMA. If SPY can reclaim and hold these moving averages we can favor more bullish moves again.

[jatelle]

Today SPY could not hold above its Daily moving averages, rejecting off the 50 SMA and flushing back below the 10 SMA. It is important that it reclaims the 10 SMA.

[jimcasada]

I don't know why everyone seems going to 'S' lately, but I'm going to 'I' today. I don't really feel overly confident about it, but I think it's the safest bet right now (other than 'G').

[bloobs]

I don't know why everyone seems going to 'S' lately, but I'm going to 'I' today. I don't really feel overly confident about it, but I think it's the safest bet right now (other than 'G').

• For me, technically, C/S is relatively less risky at the moment.

• Also, I fund, composed of developed economies in Western Europe and East Asia, has multiple fundamental (China real estate) and technical (DAX is in a Wyckoff distribution) black swan type risks.

• Ultimately, my seasonal analysis for pre-election years has between Aug 24 and Aug 31 as short-term bullish periods (85% bullish over the past 20 years with an almost 1% gain annually)

But that's just my rationale using just-in-time analysis and backward-looking statistics. All outcomes are still possible.

[jatelle]

Solid green day on SPY today with strong volume on the Daily. Today was the biggest volume green day and highest volume day since June 30, 2023. The Weekly chart has printed what appears to be a Bullish Harami which is a candlestick pattern indicating a reversal in a bear trend.

Interesting perspective on today's NAAIM data by CyclesFan on Twitter(X). The NAAIM Exposure Index is used to estimate investors' sentiment in the U.S. stock market. Generally, high readings imply that investors are quite bullish, and low readings suggest that investors are bearish.

With NAAIM getting this low at 34% while price is holding above the 20 MA (pink line) on the Weekly chart and after only a 5% decline in SPY isn't very supportive of the bear case and today's bearish put/call ratio of 1.11.

[12squared]

The Weekly chart has printed what appears to be a Bullish Harami which is a candlestick pattern indicating a reversal in a bear trend.

NYSE, mid-cap and small-cap Intermediate Term (IT) momentum oscillators also indicate reversals. All moved higher yesterday. NYSE & mid-cap also breached guardrails [PSAR(0.09,0.5) & MA(4)] which had bounded the downturn since late July.

+NYSE breadth momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png

+Mid-Cap Breadth Momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png

+Small-Cap Breadth Momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png

[jatelle]

The Weekly chart has printed what appears to be a Bullish Harami which is a candlestick pattern indicating a reversal in a bear trend.

NYSE, mid-cap and small-cap Intermediate Term (IT) momentum oscillators also indicate reversals. All moved higher yesterday. NYSE & mid-cap also breached guardrails [PSAR(0.09,0.5) & MA(4)] which had bounded the downturn since late July.

+NYSE breadth momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png
+Mid-Cap Breadth Momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png
+Small-Cap Breadth Momentum 29Jun23-28Aug23.png

12Squared, I was waiting for your posting on the momentum oscillators. There were some hints on Friday that the market was nearing a reversal from the August pullback but I really wanted to see these confirmations. These oscillators are absolutely GOLDEN. Unfortunately, I ignored that last ones you posted at the end of July and hung on too long when I should have got out on July 31 like Bloobs and others did. I'm paying attention this time. Thanks again for posting!

[tnwhiskey]

I appreciate all of the information provided and always look forward to reading

[bloobs]

I appreciate all of the information provided and always look forward to reading

I agree, and appreciate everyone's mind-opening, experimental ideas and thoughts on this thread, which helps supplant staid and apparent increasingly ineffective methods from elsewhere.

[megalush5]

I agree! Love this thread ! I dont post much but I'm a lurker . Great insight.. Thank you all

[jatelle]

I agree! Love this thread ! I dont post much but I'm a lurker . Great insight.. Thank you all

I love it too! Shout out to Wingchaser and 12squared and Bloobs and Jimcasada and Harpole and Tomany and my other fellow posters on here and of course Aitrus who shall keep us in line should we ever stray too political

[12squared]

The Bullish Percentage indexes are also confirming a reversal to the upside.

+BPSPX 31May23-30Aug23.png

+BPNYA 31May23-30Aug23.png

The parameters for moving averages, slope & TRIX were chosen based on earlier up & down trends. Except for a few weeks in late May when Fed remarks may have rattled the market, the crossings and inflections generally correlate to the underlying metric.

[Bubba]

I saw (last week) that most sectors have reached golden crosses, with the exception of a couple (I think real estate and the other one I can't remember). This should translate into some healthy gains for the SP500. Enjoy!