Just Like clockwork...

[jatelle]

it's becoming evident that options market activity (which most are oblivious to) and fed funds rate gossip (on the surface) are the most influential drivers in price action nowadays.

Everything else is just clutter meant to deceive.

Absolutely true! The explosion of short term options trading (particularly 0 DTEs) is taking over stocks and indices price action and is giving the stock market more of a casino feel then an investment platform.

The mechanics work exactly like illegal gambling, specifically point shaving schemes to game Vegas sports betting lines and odds. No difference, retailers are getting played by the big money.

Yep, the house always wins...

[jatelle]

I expect SPY is going to drop down to the MEAN standard deviation (currently at 383) and we will see a rally from there sometime in March.

[12squared]

NYSE breadth marks 3 weeks of decline; 2 weeks for Bullish percent indices.

NYSE breadth 25Aug22-24Feb23.png

$BPSPX
$BPNYA

BPSPX 25Aug22-24Feb23.png

BPNYA 25Aug22-24Feb23.png

[jatelle]

NYSE breadth marks 3 weeks of decline; 2 weeks for Bullish percent indices.

These charts are super helpful! Keep'em comin 12squared!

[12squared]

NYSE breadth marks 3 weeks of decline; 2 weeks for Bullish percent indices.

These charts are super helpful! Keep'em comin 12squared!

Thanks. I like to think of these metrics as analogous to barometric pressure, and indices like wind speed. Pressure changes slowly, whereas wind fluctuates with gusts and lulls occurring without warning.

[jatelle]

NYSE breadth marks 3 weeks of decline; 2 weeks for Bullish percent indices.

These charts are super helpful! Keep'em comin 12squared!

Thanks. I like to think of these metrics as analogous to barometric pressure, and indices like wind speed. Pressure changes slowly, whereas wind fluctuates with gusts and lulls occurring without warning.

Good weather analogy! Climate Change has disrupted the normal seasons of the market with unseasonal price action. One day it's a record setting heatwave and then the next day it is snowing! How can we dress appropriately for the markets??

[12squared]

These charts are super helpful! Keep'em comin 12squared!

Thanks. I like to think of these metrics as analogous to barometric pressure, and indices like wind speed. Pressure changes slowly, whereas wind fluctuates with gusts and lulls occurring without warning.

Good weather analogy! Climate Change has disrupted the normal seasons of the market with unseasonal price action. One day it's a record setting heatwave and then the next day it is snowing! How can we dress appropriately for the markets??

After 40 years of generally declining bond prices, recent Fed policy action could be likened to melting of the polar ice. Yet despite clear warnings, many in the market refuse to believe that he Fed will not pivot, and won't look up.

[ripp002]

Paint drying very slow.

[Tomanyiron]

Paint drying very slow.

The Market is waiting to see which way the Supreme Court decides on the highly inflationary student loan forgiveness plan.

[jatelle]

Paint drying very slow.

The Market is waiting to see which way the Supreme Court decides on the highly inflationary student loan forgiveness plan.

Early indications are that it will be nixed by the Supreme Court which should bode well for the market.

[12squared]

NYSE breadth continues steady decline, despite flatness in S fund benchmarks over past few days.
Momentum oscillator went negative Feb 28. Watching for positive reversal before re-entering the market.

NYSE breadth 1Oct22-1Mar23.png

[jatelle]

it's becoming evident that options market activity (which most are oblivious to) and fed funds rate gossip (on the surface) are the most influential drivers in price action nowadays.

Everything else is just clutter meant to deceive.

Absolutely true! The explosion of short term options trading (particularly 0 DTEs) is taking over stocks and indices price action and is giving the stock market more of a casino feel then an investment platform.

The mechanics work exactly like illegal gambling, specifically point shaving schemes to game Vegas sports betting lines and odds. No difference, retailers are getting played by the big money.

Bloobs, I see you moved to G today. Why, did you get a bearish sell signal? Do you have data that indicates that today is just a dead cat bounce?

[bloobs]

Absolutely true! The explosion of short term options trading (particularly 0 DTEs) is taking over stocks and indices price action and is giving the stock market more of a casino feel then an investment platform.

The mechanics work exactly like illegal gambling, specifically point shaving schemes to game Vegas sports betting lines and odds. No difference, retailers are getting played by the big money.

Bloobs, I see you moved to G today? Why, did you get a bearish sell signal? Do you think today is just a dead cat bounce?

Nah, just my seasonal schedule. I am determined to stay on my seasonal this year. Because I am a point, at least for my TSP account, that there are no technical indicators or combination thereof that I can confidently rely on other than MJ's method.

I have been exploring around with singular spectrum analysis-based price action projections which seem to be accurate for short term moves--but the jury is still out on that.

[jatelle]

Hammer candlestick on the Weekly charts (Nasdaq and S&P) this week of Feb 27 - March 3. This is typically a bullish signal.

[wingchaser]

Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 00694.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!