Just Like clockwork...

[jatelle]

SPY is likely heading down to retest the MEAN SD at 384 (dashed white line). This price aligns closely with the Fib 261.8% level. From there it will likely bounce - but how high remains to be seen...

Note: the 100 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA today.

[bloobs]

SPY is likely heading down to retest the MEAN SD at 394 (dashed white line). This price aligns closely with the Fib 261.8% level. From there it will likely bounce - but how high remains to be seen...

if I'm not mistaken that range also falls just above the weekly put options low expiring tomorrow.

[jatelle]

SPY is likely heading down to retest the MEAN SD at 394 (dashed white line). This price aligns closely with the Fib 261.8% level. From there it will likely bounce - but how high remains to be seen...

if I'm not mistaken that range also falls just above the weekly put options low expiring tomorrow.

Yes, the puts are expiring in that zone. Just to add the sentiment today, as gauged by the put-call ratio ended at 1.04 (slightly bearish).

So now we await tomorrow's key employment report. TSPTalk Market Commentary raises a fair question:
"Did the report data get leaked somehow, or was the influential money on Wall Street trying to shake out mom and pop investors before the report - because it may be better than most think?"

[12squared]

Both $BPSPX & $BPNYA indexes (percentage of stocks on the S&P and NYSE which are "bullish" based on Point & Figure charts) took sharp downturns Thursday. The drop in $BPSPX was great enough to reverse its PSAR(0.05,0.2), which had flipped positive 3 days earlier.

BPSPX 8Sep22-9Mar23.png

BPNYA 8Sep22-9Mar23.png

Generally speaking, the lower the level of the reversal, the longer the index is likely to climb. A reversal below 20 would be significant.

[bloobs]

if I'm not mistaken that range also falls just above the weekly put options low expiring tomorrow.

Yes, the puts are expiring in that zone. Just to add the sentiment today, as gauged by the put-call ratio ended at 1.04 (slightly bearish).

So now we await tomorrow's key employment report. TSPTalk Market Commentary raises a fair question:
"Did the report data get leaked somehow, or was the influential money on Wall Street trying to shake out mom and pop investors before the report - because it may be better than most think?"

Today I will observe which camp wins the battle:

• Options contract sellers pushing the SPY to above a 391 close to prevent paying out the 390 put calls, or

• Traders pushing the Fed narrative (buoyed by this week's inflationary news) to crash the SPY to the next
  sub-390 support zone.

UPDATE: My guess is that it closes between 392 and 395, and options put writers win (again)

[12squared]

$BPNYA declined sharply (16.5%) to 43.9 today. $BPSPX slid %26.6 to 33.2.

Here's the range of each over the past 3 decades for perspective, along with where they ended Thursday.

BPSPX 1996-2023.png

BPNYA 1990-2023.png

[jatelle]

if I'm not mistaken that range also falls just above the weekly put options low expiring tomorrow.

Yes, the puts are expiring in that zone. Just to add the sentiment today, as gauged by the put-call ratio ended at 1.04 (slightly bearish).

So now we await tomorrow's key employment report. TSPTalk Market Commentary raises a fair question:
"Did the report data get leaked somehow, or was the influential money on Wall Street trying to shake out mom and pop investors before the report - because it may be better than most think?"

Today I will observe which camp wins the battle:

• Options contract sellers pushing the SPY to above a 391 close to prevent paying out the 390 put calls, or

• Traders pushing the Fed narrative (buoyed by this week's inflationary news) to crash the SPY to the next
  sub-390 support zone.

UPDATE: My guess is that it closes between 392 and 395, and options put writers win (again)

Hey Bloobs how's that popcorn? Did you enjoy stuffing your face from the comfort of your sofa watching Wingchaser and me fight for our lives in the Market Hunger Games today? It was a fierce contest but Wing and I paired up and lived through it! Price knifed down towards the SD MEAN just missing us at 385. We live another day on Monday and if we stay alive I think I may choose to bow out of the games if it reaches between 395 and 400. How are our odds right now? Any bets on us?

[bloobs]

Jatelle - im gladnyou both survived. Well, I was wrong today too. Hmm so what's new? Oddly, put option writers lost the battle today with the Silver Bank news traders, which may mark a shift in who's running the game from now on. Thankfully I was just spectating. Really curious/excited/terrified of the possibility of a contagion effect from the Silver crash for the next few weeks.

Heard a rumor that an anti-Cramer picks ETF is in the works LOL.

[bloobs]

Jatelle - im gladnyou both survived. Well, I was wrong today too. Hmm so what's new? Oddly, put option writers lost the battle today with the Silver Bank news traders, which may mark a shift in who's running the game from now on. Thankfully I was just spectating. Really curious/excited/terrified of the possibility of a contagion effect from the Silver crash for the next few weeks.

Heard a rumor that an anti-Cramer picks ETF is in the works LOL.

UPDATE: Oops I conflated Silver with Silicon Valley Bank above, but who cares... it's just banks misbehavin' for a sneaky extra buck or two, like always.

Anyways here's what Yellen said today:

“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out, and the reforms that have been put in place means that we’re not going to do that again”
-J-Dog Yellen

Thoughts?

[jatelle]

Jatelle - im gladnyou both survived. Well, I was wrong today too. Hmm so what's new? Oddly, put option writers lost the battle today with the Silver Bank news traders, which may mark a shift in who's running the game from now on. Thankfully I was just spectating. Really curious/excited/terrified of the possibility of a contagion effect from the Silver crash for the next few weeks.

Heard a rumor that an anti-Cramer picks ETF is in the works LOL.

UPDATE: Oops I conflated Silver with Silicon Valley Bank above, but who cares... it's just banks misbehavin' for a sneaky extra buck or two, like always.

Anyways here's what Yellen said today:

“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out, and the reforms that have been put in place means that we’re not going to do that again”
-J-Dog Yellen

Thoughts?

The government made the right call and is bailing out the innocent customers guaranteeing their deposits but holding the bank executives and owners accountable! The government got this right! And Wall Street agrees...the futures are soaring!!

[bloobs]

UPDATE: Oops I conflated Silver with Silicon Valley Bank above, but who cares... it's just banks misbehavin' for a sneaky extra buck or two, like always.

Anyways here's what Yellen said today:

“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out, and the reforms that have been put in place means that we’re not going to do that again”
-J-Dog Yellen

Thoughts?

The government made the right call and is bailing out the innocent customers guaranteeing their deposits but holding the bank executives and owners accountable! The government got this right! And Wall Street agrees...the futures are soaring!!

First off, why is it that banks and corporations in general immediately take advantage of deregulation (in this case from a Trump era 2018 law) to create the next catastrophe for all of us? Every single time these biatches.

Anyways, the jury's still out on whether the govt's band-aid response will work. It should....unless there are more banks about to get run over by depositors in the coming weeks.

Having said that, does this NON-bailout mean 0.5% hike is back on the table this month?

[jatelle]

UPDATE: Oops I conflated Silver with Silicon Valley Bank above, but who cares... it's just banks misbehavin' for a sneaky extra buck or two, like always.

Anyways here's what Yellen said today:

“Let me be clear that during the financial crisis, there were investors and owners of systemic large banks that were bailed out, and the reforms that have been put in place means that we’re not going to do that again”
-J-Dog Yellen

Thoughts?

The government made the right call and is bailing out the innocent customers guaranteeing their deposits but holding the bank executives and owners accountable! The government got this right! And Wall Street agrees...the futures are soaring!!

First off, why is it that banks and corporations in general immediately take advantage of deregulation (in this case from a Trump era 2018 law) to create the next catastrophe for all of us? Every single time these biatches.

Anyways, the jury's still out on whether the govt's band-aid response will work. It should....unless there are more banks about to get run over by depositors in the coming weeks.

Having said that, does this NON-bailout mean 0.5% hike is back on the table this month?

The Banks are "Capitalist" when they are making money but suddenly become "Socialists" when they are losing money....

I think 0.5% hike is more difficult now but not off the table...

[jatelle]

Spy did not respect the MEAN Standard Deviation. Once the market takes out the mean, we will be looking for a -1 standard deviation move currently at 363 - just following the statistics.

[bloobs]

Spy did not respect the MEAN Standard Deviation. Once the market takes out the mean, we will be looking for a -1 standard deviation move currently at 363 - just following the statistics.

Yup. Socialism for the top 1% and dog-eat-dog for everyone else--same as in USSR/Russia. On a brighter note, I made 9% this morning on KRE whiplash action. Wish i put mo' money in--but still better thank nuthin'.

[IRQVET]

[/quote]

The Banks are "Capitalist" when they are making money but suddenly become "Socialists" when they are losing money....


[/quote]

This!