Just Like clockwork...

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Aitrus
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Aitrus »

IRQVET wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:08 pm
The Banks are "Capitalist" when they are making money but suddenly become "Socialists" when they are losing money....
This! :lol:
This kind of reminds me of a statement I heard not too long ago: "It's easy to be a socialist in a capitalist society. It's impossible to be a capitalist in a socialist society."

As far as the banks go: I wish that the government would stop bailing out poor business models. It doesn't make people have faith in the economics of supply and demand, and that affects market returns, which then affects how retirement accounts perform. Poor business models are supposed to fail - that one part of how we get better business models, by learning lessons from the poor performers. And SVB was a poor business model.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

ripp002
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by ripp002 »

Anyone interested in a healthy serving of F Fund? Or has that ship sailed for the time being? I see some nibbling going on in pending transfers.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Tomanyiron »

Image

jatelle
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

@MarkZandi
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Aitrus
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by Aitrus »

Too bad they don't compare apples to apples anymore.
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Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Resisted the temptation to bail, though I don’t quite know why…

Higher Highs, coupled with Higher Lows, have short-term potential!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/stock-m ... dates.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 53589.html

Anything more/less would be wishful thinking!!!

There’s a theory (out there) that bank failures will be on the increase because of the rapid rise in Interest Rates…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by bloobs »

wingchaser wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:36 am Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 53589.html

Anything more/less would be wishful thinking!!!

There’s a theory (out there) that bank failures will be on the increase because of the rapid rise in Interest Rates…
From what I understand, it's not just a theory but actual causation. Banks have significant assets in bonds which have lost value as a direct result of the fed rate hikes. Not a problem in the long term, unless very powerful people on Twitter spread rumors that make depositors withdraw their funds ASAP (forcing banks to liquidate these bonds immediately at a massive realized loss.)

My hypothesis is that the powers-that-be have wantes the market to crash super big since before COVID (so they can swoop in to buy uber cheap), did not anticipate the sudden recovery in late 2020-2021, so used inflation as the trigger to make it fall again (they're failing so far) so are now using the bank liquidity scenario as their new tool to git 'er done once and for all. It may work this time.

Probably explains why my favorite TSPCENTER user "Thaeland" has been in G fund for a while now.

wingchaser
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Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

bloobs wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 10:49 am
wingchaser wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 8:36 am Interestin’ read…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 53589.html

Anything more/less would be wishful thinking!!!

There’s a theory (out there) that bank failures will be on the increase because of the rapid rise in Interest Rates…
From what I understand, it's not just a theory but actual causation. Banks have significant assets in bonds which have lost value as a direct result of the fed rate hikes. Not a problem in the long term, unless very powerful people on Twitter spread rumors that make depositors withdraw their funds ASAP (forcing banks to liquidate these bonds immediately at a massive realized loss.)

My hypothesis is that the powers-that-be have wantes the market to crash super big since before COVID (so they can swoop in to buy uber cheap), did not anticipate the sudden recovery in late 2020-2021, so used inflation as the trigger to make it fall again (they're failing so far) so are now using the bank liquidity scenario as their new tool to git 'er done once and for all. It may work this time.

Probably explains why my favorite TSPCENTER user "Thaeland" has been in G fund for a while now.
THAELAND is very astute, indeed…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Another interestin’ read…

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail ... 023-03-15/

What to do, what to do?

Normally, a GAP DOWN Candlestick is indicative of “momentum” in the wrong direction. These mild “lower” tails (today) convey that investors are not totally ready to concede (as of now). Should I?

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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Last edited by wingchaser on Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

The more likely “tell”, is the TRIPLE TOP that has unfolded as the day has progressed…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 765
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

I’m officially giving back my 12 days of market exposure that is left in the Month of March. Vowed that I would never loose 10% off my Balance (again) & I’m fast approaching’ that threshold…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 765
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by wingchaser »

Candle in the days’ wake portends that a possible reversal could be in the offering, but with all the Financial unrest that abounds, I wasn’t willing to risk it…

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/stock-m ... dates.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
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“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

jatelle
Posts: 215
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

wingchaser wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:19 pm Candle in the days’ wake portends that a possible reversal could be in the offering, but with all the Financial unrest that abounds, I wasn’t willing to risk it…

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/stock-m ... dates.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Wingchaser, I think you made a good decision. I too got out for these same reasons. I think this banking liquidity crisis is going to kick off the final leg down for the market. The next major support is the -1 Standard Deviation (currently at 363). And I would be surprised if the markets were to rally in the next two weeks remaining in March.

jatelle
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: Just Like clockwork...

Post by jatelle »

jatelle wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 9:40 pm
wingchaser wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:19 pm Candle in the days’ wake portends that a possible reversal could be in the offering, but with all the Financial unrest that abounds, I wasn’t willing to risk it…

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/stock-m ... dates.html

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
Wingchaser, I think you made a good decision. I too got out for these same reasons. I think this banking liquidity crisis is going to kick off the final leg down for the market. The next major support is the -1 Standard Deviation (currently at 363). And I would be surprised if the markets were to rally in the next two weeks remaining in March.
Today's big rally reminds me that I need to STOP listening to the news and the crises of the day. Bloobs is right. I think big money is manufacturing these crises to frighten the common investor out of their positions. I wish I had ignored the bank crisis and stuck to my game plan. My charts were clearly telling me that a small rally was imminent. The data suggested it as well since we saw spikes in buying in darkpools, and delta correlations turning bullish. But then this SUDDEN banking crisis came out of nowhere and spooked me out of my position prematurely. Then the government intervenes and pumps $300 billion in Quantitative Easing (QE) back into the banks (a.k.a bail out) and suddenly everything is ok again. I got punked.
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Fund Prices2023-03-20

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.38 0.03% 0.84%
F $18.68 -0.48% 2.58%
C $60.86 0.89% 3.32%
S $62.37 0.93% 1.36%
I $35.15 1.25% 3.56%
L2065 $12.65 1.01% 3.18%
L2060 $12.65 1.01% 3.18%
L2055 $12.65 1.01% 3.17%
L2050 $26.25 0.80% 2.92%
L2045 $12.08 0.75% 2.81%
L2040 $44.54 0.70% 2.69%
L2035 $11.89 0.65% 2.56%
L2030 $40.02 0.59% 2.41%
L2025 $11.64 0.38% 1.90%
Linc $23.21 0.25% 1.56%

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