Seasonal Trading still on the table?

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mrwawa
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Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2016 12:39 pm

Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by mrwawa »

Hi all,

I started a seasonal trading strategy this year. I am currently in G and have missed most of the turmoil. Unfortunately, I'm supposed to switch to I soon. Yikes. Since the seasonal strategy doesn't include historical data that covers WWIII, I am curious how more experienced investors approach unique circumstances like this year. Just keep rolling, or lay low for 6 months.

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mjedlin66
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Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by mjedlin66 »

It's tough to say. We're in a downtrend right now. But when is the reversal? Is it tomorrow? Is it three years from now?
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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bloobs
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Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by bloobs »

mrwawa wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:54 pm ...Since the seasonal strategy doesn't include historical data that covers WWIII, I am curious how more experienced investors approach unique circumstances like this...
Umm pretty sure TSP balances would be the least of the anyone's concern in the face of a nuclear winter, jus' saying :idea:


PS - don't worry it's not gonna happen. I'm pretty sure.

mrwawa
Posts: 7
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2016 12:39 pm

Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by mrwawa »

I wasn't literally talking tsp, my question is more about seasonal investing a circumstances that aren't covered by stock index histories.my thought is that following a seasonal strategy during a period like this may not be a data-driven approach that I think it is.

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bloobs
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Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by bloobs »

mrwawa wrote: Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:42 am I wasn't literally talking tsp, my question is more about seasonal investing a circumstances that aren't covered by stock index histories.my thought is that following a seasonal strategy during a period like this may not be a data-driven approach that I think it is.
Sorry I was being facetious in my last response :wink:

But seriously now, I continue to use a modified version of my seasonal. Keep in mind that just because I chose a specific seasonal strat. at the beginning of the year--does not mean I am strictly bound to follow it. That selection serves as a baseline schedule only.

Some folks may view my approach as antithetical to the purpose of a seasonal strat. but here's my rationale: before deviating from my selected seasonal in early January (I've been in G all this year so far), I first calculated what the impact of that would do to my chosen strat's mean and standard deviation (using TSPCALC). To my surprise, it showed only ~1.5 percentage point drop in mean (marginal) and an actual decrease in the standard deviation (good) over the same 15+ years of the sample period. So my choice was clear. These findings were more than enough justification for me to go ahead and deviate. Use the data to your advantage--the answers are there for the taking. It'll make you sleep better at night too.

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by Aitrus »

It's a good question, mrwawa. I understand the uncertainty.

One of the main upsides to a seasonal strat is that it provides a direction in times of uncertainty. For somebody who either can't read the market or has no interest in learning to do so, following a strat means that they're following research that they understand. For them following that research is better than flailing around and trying to outguess the market based on emotional surges and listening to "experts" on TV, and that peace of mind is worth it to them.

Some strats currently have their followers out of the market, and so the trust in the research is paying off. For example, #163463 is currently sitting at -4.18% Year to Date. While that's not positive territory, it's currently a lot better than the C, S, I, and all the L Funds except L Income. And there's a lot of other strats that follow this strat's moves to a greater or lesser extent. Even the simpler strategies work: Jahbulon's Basic is sitting at -5.91%.

For those who ride the wave down and can manage to stick it out, the ride back up will make up for all that was lost - and a bit more due to dollar cost averaging. But a lot of investors have a hard time with that kind of dedication, and they're not satisfied with earning the 7-8% long term market average. The emotional turmoil that comes with outguessing the market is also present in a different form for buy-and-holders.

Seasonal strats give the investor something tangible to lash their emotions to when riding out the storm. For investors who know that their emotions betray them, seasonality was made for times like this.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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12squared
Posts: 484
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by 12squared »

mrwawa wrote: Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:54 pm I started a seasonal trading strategy this year. I am currently in G and have missed most of the turmoil. Unfortunately, I'm supposed to switch to I soon. Yikes. Since the seasonal strategy doesn't include historical data that covers WWIII, I am curious how more experienced investors approach unique circumstances like this year. Just keep rolling, or lay low for 6 months.
Consider choosing a strategy from the among those which have been doing well so far this year.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=154 ... sortby=avg

Then check to see if has stayed positive through previous years.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=119 ... sortby=avg
Tip: IDs below 100,000 are very likely to have disappointed in 2018.

To continue the list past the top 100, set a minimum mean (e.g. 9%), then sort Ascending.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=119 ... sortby=avg
Last edited by 12squared on Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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Snapdragon
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Re: Seasonal Trading still on the table?

Post by Snapdragon »

You will get different answers, which is why I like this site. We all care and are helpful, but in the end you have to do what works for you. I have a handful of strategies I like for this year from the TSPCalc website, one of them has a great PNR also. Having said all that, I have missed some IFTs. For me right now, even with my itchy trigger finger, I have enough going on in my life right now and I like sleeping at night. Some say stick to the plan, the plans always recover and they are correct. But I'm stubborn and end up doing my own thing but always keep patience in mind. Good Luck

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Fund Prices2022-06-23

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.92 0.01% 1.09%
F $18.70 0.37% -10.46%
C $57.73 0.96% -19.76%
S $60.75 1.72% -27.19%
I $31.69 -0.31% -19.66%
L2065 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2060 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2055 $11.82 0.62% -20.58%
L2050 $24.70 0.54% -17.73%
L2045 $11.39 0.51% -16.70%
L2040 $42.04 0.47% -15.57%
L2035 $11.25 0.44% -14.31%
L2030 $37.92 0.40% -12.97%
L2025 $11.14 0.28% -9.07%
Linc $22.33 0.17% -4.93%

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