Super bubble???

General TSP Discussion.

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Bubba823
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:16 am

Re: Super bubble???

Post by Bubba823 »

:lol:

jackyl33
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Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:17 pm

Re: Super bubble???

Post by jackyl33 »

definitely a bubble, but how big will it inflate before it pops??

Bubba
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Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Super bubble???

Post by Bubba »

Many commenters look at Fibonacci levels and claim that the market tends to overshoot over and under. When the inflation does happen, usually (they say), it'll go to a certain Fibonacci level. At present, I have seen different suggestions from the SPX going from 1200 to 2100:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/technicals/

I guess we'll find out in a year or 2.

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Scarfinger
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by Scarfinger »

Bring on the bubble and pending crash. I hope it crashes now so that it can recover by the time I retire in 11 years.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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jimcasada
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by jimcasada »

I plan to retire at the end of this year.

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evilanne
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Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Super bubble???

Post by evilanne »

Good for you Jim!

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Horaenaut
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by Horaenaut »

It has felt like a massive bubble for a long time (focus on stock growth over actual profitability), but the pandemic dip didn’t pop it, the Ukraine dip didn’t pop it, and I kind of doubt the coming inflation/fed rate raise dip is going to pop it.

The problem is a historically huge portion of the population has their retirement savings invested in index funds, so everyone needs the whole market to keep going up. Institutional investors are all scrambling to invest as an inflation hedge, with a portion invested in any novel idea that crops up and might outperform the market (NFTs, fractional investment in art, REICs, etc.). Lots of money looking to make money off of “little” dips (~10%), but nobody wants a huge crash. The investment market is over saturated so the market as a whole is not going to go down in a big way. The bubble only pops when something makes it exceedingly clear there is no value to a highly-leveraged asset class (tulips, dot coms, subprime mortgages, etc.) and I simply see massive overvaluation, not a crumbled foundation.

wingchaser
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by wingchaser »

jimcasada wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:36 am I plan to retire at the end of this year.
Congrats, Jimbo…

The POTUS just put in his new bill a RMD of 76, looks like I’ll be postponing’ Social Security & manning my station a while longer???

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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12squared
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by 12squared »

Horaenaut wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:36 am The bubble only pops when something makes it exceedingly clear there is no value to a highly-leveraged asset class (tulips, dot coms, subprime mortgages, etc.)
or cryptocurrencies - the favorite of savvy millennials
Millennials have solved the retirement crisis
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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Horaenaut
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by Horaenaut »

12squared wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:17 pm or cryptocurrencies - the favorite of savvy millennials
Millennials have solved the retirement crisis
Fair enough, and I’m sure it’s bound to happen, but I’m not seeing any indications of the cryptocurrency pop yet. I think this whole drop is just about the Fed’s balance sheet.

Also, as a millennial (who owns a token amount of crypto, but plans for it to be worth a paper clip during my retirement) it is crazy to me how many crypto offerings there are out there and that real institutional investors are willing to buy into.

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Scarfinger
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by Scarfinger »

jimcasada wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:36 am I plan to retire at the end of this year.
A fairly conservative allocation would be prudent in your case. Unless you don't need your TSP, then more risk?
Hope everything works out for you Jim.

Best wishes,

Joe.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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jimcasada
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Super bubble???

Post by jimcasada »

I'm trying my best not to take unnecessary risks. I've been in G all this year except for just one day last month, but it was a good one. Up almost 5% YTD.

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IRQVET
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by IRQVET »

I picked a crap year to start following a strategy! If I didn’t have bad timeing, I’d have no timing at all . . . (Face Palm)

Weird thing is, and I know its not the same, but I HATE being in debt. And having negative returns feels the same to me. Bugs me.
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

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Scarfinger
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Re: Super bubble???

Post by Scarfinger »

IRQVET wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 4:16 pm I picked a crap year to start following a strategy! If I didn’t have bad timeing, I’d have no timing at all . . . (Face Palm)

Weird thing is, and I know its not the same, but I HATE being in debt. And having negative returns feels the same to me. Bugs me.
-2.51 is better than -12%. your 10% better than the S fund. I would call that a win.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Fund Prices2022-06-23

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.92 0.01% 1.09%
F $18.70 0.37% -10.46%
C $57.73 0.96% -19.76%
S $60.75 1.72% -27.19%
I $31.69 -0.31% -19.66%
L2065 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2060 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2055 $11.82 0.62% -20.58%
L2050 $24.70 0.54% -17.73%
L2045 $11.39 0.51% -16.70%
L2040 $42.04 0.47% -15.57%
L2035 $11.25 0.44% -14.31%
L2030 $37.92 0.40% -12.97%
L2025 $11.14 0.28% -9.07%
Linc $22.33 0.17% -4.93%

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