Super bubble???

[jimcasada]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tham-video

[Bubba823]

[jackyl33]

definitely a bubble, but how big will it inflate before it pops??

[Bubba]

Many commenters look at Fibonacci levels and claim that the market tends to overshoot over and under. When the inflation does happen, usually (they say), it'll go to a certain Fibonacci level. At present, I have seen different suggestions from the SPX going from 1200 to 2100:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX/technicals/

I guess we'll find out in a year or 2.

[Scarfinger]

Bring on the bubble and pending crash. I hope it crashes now so that it can recover by the time I retire in 11 years.

[jimcasada]

I plan to retire at the end of this year.

[evilanne]

Good for you Jim!

[Horaenaut]

It has felt like a massive bubble for a long time (focus on stock growth over actual profitability), but the pandemic dip didn’t pop it, the Ukraine dip didn’t pop it, and I kind of doubt the coming inflation/fed rate raise dip is going to pop it.

The problem is a historically huge portion of the population has their retirement savings invested in index funds, so everyone needs the whole market to keep going up. Institutional investors are all scrambling to invest as an inflation hedge, with a portion invested in any novel idea that crops up and might outperform the market (NFTs, fractional investment in art, REICs, etc.). Lots of money looking to make money off of “little” dips (~10%), but nobody wants a huge crash. The investment market is over saturated so the market as a whole is not going to go down in a big way. The bubble only pops when something makes it exceedingly clear there is no value to a highly-leveraged asset class (tulips, dot coms, subprime mortgages, etc.) and I simply see massive overvaluation, not a crumbled foundation.

[wingchaser]

I plan to retire at the end of this year.

Congrats, Jimbo…

The POTUS just put in his new bill a RMD of 76, looks like I’ll be postponing’ Social Security & manning my station a while longer???

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[12squared]

The bubble only pops when something makes it exceedingly clear there is no value to a highly-leveraged asset class (tulips, dot coms, subprime mortgages, etc.)

or cryptocurrencies - the favorite of savvy millennials
Millennials have solved the retirement crisis

[Horaenaut]

or cryptocurrencies - the favorite of savvy millennials
Millennials have solved the retirement crisis

Fair enough, and I’m sure it’s bound to happen, but I’m not seeing any indications of the cryptocurrency pop yet. I think this whole drop is just about the Fed’s balance sheet.

Also, as a millennial (who owns a token amount of crypto, but plans for it to be worth a paper clip during my retirement) it is crazy to me how many crypto offerings there are out there and that real institutional investors are willing to buy into.

[Scarfinger]

I plan to retire at the end of this year.

A fairly conservative allocation would be prudent in your case. Unless you don't need your TSP, then more risk?
Hope everything works out for you Jim.

Best wishes,

Joe.

[jimcasada]

I'm trying my best not to take unnecessary risks. I've been in G all this year except for just one day last month, but it was a good one. Up almost 5% YTD.

[IRQVET]

I picked a crap year to start following a strategy! If I didn’t have bad timeing, I’d have no timing at all . . . (Face Palm)

Weird thing is, and I know its not the same, but I HATE being in debt. And having negative returns feels the same to me. Bugs me.

[Scarfinger]

I picked a crap year to start following a strategy! If I didn’t have bad timeing, I’d have no timing at all . . . (Face Palm)

Weird thing is, and I know its not the same, but I HATE being in debt. And having negative returns feels the same to me. Bugs me.

-2.51 is better than -12%. your 10% better than the S fund. I would call that a win.