TSP Questions-New contract and Applying TSPCalc to IRA account

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MurphysLaw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:50 am

TSP Questions-New contract and Applying TSPCalc to IRA account

Post by MurphysLaw »

Hello all, long time since I visited the site. Hope everyone is well. Two questions:
1) I would assume there has been some good discussion on here about the upcoming TSP changes. Can anyone point me to a good post/discussion thread on this? Will seasonal strategies be impacted?

2) With the popularity of ETFs trading essentially as stocks, have the creators of TSPCalc ever tried to apply their model within an IRA where the rules of number of trading, etc. would be more flexible? Either with the same basic funds of the TSP or using some other complimentary funds to seasonal investing?

MurphysLaw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:50 am

Re: TSP Questions-New contract and Applying TSPCalc to IRA account

Post by MurphysLaw »

Then I suppose a third question, again primarily for TSPCalc:
3) Assuming they just add a bunch of different fund options to the TSP and don't change the IFT rules, is there any additional fund (or fund type) you may be excited to evaluate as a potential addition to the seasonal strategy?

Disclosure: I have used a seasonal strategy since 2019 with mixed results. I do find it hard to stay true to the strategy. I try to have realistic expectations and believe the strategy I follow has done well. It has never failed to at least beat either the C or S fund in a given year. That is my measure of success. That said, I'd have been better off with either a 50/50 C/S or a 70/30 C/S (as I used to do) from 2019 to present. I don't regret going to a seasonal strategy though. (primarily #64941)

Bubba
Posts: 266
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: TSP Questions-New contract and Applying TSPCalc to IRA account

Post by Bubba »

MurphysLaw wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:06 pm Then I suppose a third question, again primarily for TSPCalc:
3) Assuming they just add a bunch of different fund options to the TSP and don't change the IFT rules, is there any additional fund (or fund type) you may be excited to evaluate as a potential addition to the seasonal strategy?

Disclosure: I have used a seasonal strategy since 2019 with mixed results. I do find it hard to stay true to the strategy. I try to have realistic expectations and believe the strategy I follow has done well. It has never failed to at least beat either the C or S fund in a given year. That is my measure of success. That said, I'd have been better off with either a 50/50 C/S or a 70/30 C/S (as I used to do) from 2019 to present. I don't regret going to a seasonal strategy though. (primarily #64941)
All good questions.

1. I used to post information about it as there were no specifics. As soon as specifics came out, I stopped being happy about the idea as they royally hit the fan with what they're offering.
2. I have built many strategies based on seasonals. The problems are that the TSP pays dividends differently than ETFs and/or stocks and that Blackrock tracks the indices differently as well. So, for example, they do a good job tracking the C fund, but they do a less stellar job tracking the S fund's index (FRTIB member comments confirm this). So, for that reason, I abandoned trying to make something similar. Having said that, I think the seasonals do give you a general idea of where the market is heading for the rest of the year (if you selected well), so that's a worthy point.
3. As mentioned, I gave up on the new funds. The trades are costly, you have to pay a yearly maintenance fee, each move outside the TSP is counted as a move within the TSP, etc. Having said all of that, there is one fund I would consider, if I wanted to do a buy and hold concept and that would be PSLDX. That is available via the new funding options. For now, given my balance, it's not worth the cost.

Have a great day!

MurphysLaw
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:50 am

Re: TSP Questions-New contract and Applying TSPCalc to IRA account

Post by MurphysLaw »

Thanks Bubba. I need to get smart on the changes. You mention expenses with trades and yearly mx fees, that doesn't sound good at all. I was hoping to find more discussion on here. Appreciate your responses.

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Fund Prices2022-06-23

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.92 0.01% 1.09%
F $18.70 0.37% -10.46%
C $57.73 0.96% -19.76%
S $60.75 1.72% -27.19%
I $31.69 -0.31% -19.66%
L2065 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2060 $11.82 0.62% -20.59%
L2055 $11.82 0.62% -20.58%
L2050 $24.70 0.54% -17.73%
L2045 $11.39 0.51% -16.70%
L2040 $42.04 0.47% -15.57%
L2035 $11.25 0.44% -14.31%
L2030 $37.92 0.40% -12.97%
L2025 $11.14 0.28% -9.07%
Linc $22.33 0.17% -4.93%

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