Anyone want a competition here....?

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bloobs
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Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by bloobs »

....on who can predict the market's next moves in the coming weeks and months?

I figured since practically no one has been a clear winner this year on the TSPCENTER Leaderboard (face it we all suck YTD) we might as well have an alternate competition.

I suggest a price chart prediction contest for the remaining months of the year. Those who want to participate just upload their charts forecasting how the SPY, QQQ, Dow, VXF, etc. index will look like chartwise from now till the end of 2022.

Takers?

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mjedlin66
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by mjedlin66 »

I don't do charts, but I would peg the SPY at 425 year end.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

KTSPcalc
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by KTSPcalc »

This sounds fun. I’ll play.

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bloobs
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by bloobs »

Below is mine. I worked on it last evening trying to extrapolate it to year-end but just couldn't, so it only goes out to Sept (unless maybe the charts wavelength stretches it out to Dec.)

The price points are the levels where ideally I would buy and sell (in one of my special non-TSP accounts). Thoughts and questions are always welcome.

Image

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by Tomanyiron »

This is mine, I have been working on.
Image
Wait a minute that might be the the wrong one. Let me go back and look.
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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bloobs
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:14 am This is mine, I have been working on.
Image
Downward trend....Tommy's been slackin

KTSPcalc
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by KTSPcalc »

2004 and 2022 have a lot of similarities in the charts YTD so my prediction is that 2022 mirrors 2004 for the rest of the year. I merged the two charts (2022 YTD + 2004 thru the end of the year) and then removed the optimism at the end of 2004 (stocks surged around the election; I still think they will this year too, but not to the extent as in 2004).
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Bubba
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by Bubba »

KTSPcalc wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 9:14 pm 2004 and 2022 have a lot of similarities in the charts YTD so my prediction is that 2022 mirrors 2004 for the rest of the year. I merged the two charts (2022 YTD + 2004 thru the end of the year) and then removed the optimism at the end of 2004 (stocks surged around the election; I still think they will this year too, but not to the extent as in 2004).
Try looking at 1994. The SPX index traded sideways for almost a year. It still ended in positive territory, but not much. Comparing mid-term years tends to be more comparable than other presidential years. Of course, who knows? Maybe you're right...

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wingchaser
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by wingchaser »

My belief is that all indices will lose another 10-15% off these numbers by year-end…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by Tomanyiron »

wingchaser wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:34 am My belief is that all indices will lose another 10-15% off these numbers by year-end...
:roll: :roll: :roll: I'm thinkin/guessin not. Admittedly I lack material for a greater degree of certainty, (that long out). What "material" do you have for your belief?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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wingchaser
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by wingchaser »

Tomanyiron wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:21 am
wingchaser wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:34 am My belief is that all indices will lose another 10-15% off these numbers by year-end...
:roll: :roll: :roll: I'm thinkin/guessin not. Admittedly I lack material for a greater degree of certainty, (that long out). What "material" do you have for your belief?
Ironman: Hikes are going to hammer corporate profits & economy growth, to the point where…

“We may not have seen anything yet”

I may have been conservative in my estimates…

or not!!!

😀

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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bloobs
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by bloobs »

wingchaser wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:30 pm
Tomanyiron wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:21 am
wingchaser wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:34 am My belief is that all indices will lose another 10-15% off these numbers by year-end...
:roll: :roll: :roll: I'm thinkin/guessin not. Admittedly I lack material for a greater degree of certainty, (that long out). What "material" do you have for your belief?
Ironman: Hikes are going to hammer corporate profits & economy growth, to the point where…

“We may not have seen anything yet”

I may have been conservative in my estimates…

or not!!!

😀

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

The effect of the Feds 2022 quantitative tightening proves that wall street is incapable of supporting itself without govt. bailouts and cost free loans. Wall Street culture is worse than all of drunks, crack and meth heads and welfare addicts combined. Remember where your next income tax money to the IRS is going to end up with.

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bloobs
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Re: Anyone want a competition here....?

Post by bloobs »

SPY @ ~3500 hits:

- 50% Fibonacci retracement of cycle from March 2020 bottom to Jan 2022 top
- Hits 200 weekly MA (same as bottom of 2018/19 Fed rate hikes)

Are we there yet? Almost.

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Fund Prices2022-08-17

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.00 0.01% 1.55%
F $19.02 -0.54% -8.94%
C $65.15 -0.71% -9.44%
S $69.92 -1.76% -16.21%
I $33.69 -0.76% -14.58%
L2065 $13.09 -0.87% -12.03%
L2060 $13.09 -0.87% -12.03%
L2055 $13.09 -0.87% -12.02%
L2050 $26.93 -0.76% -10.29%
L2045 $12.36 -0.71% -9.60%
L2040 $45.40 -0.66% -8.84%
L2035 $12.07 -0.61% -8.00%
L2030 $40.47 -0.55% -7.11%
L2025 $11.66 -0.38% -4.78%
Linc $22.99 -0.23% -2.10%

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