Mid-term election year pattern

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12squared
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Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Mid-term election year pattern

Post by 12squared »

“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

sprakass
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by sprakass »

This is about right

Bubba
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by Bubba »

This one is also quite interesting. Could it be that simple??? Image

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bloobs
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by bloobs »

Bubba wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:09 am This one is also quite interesting. Could it be that simple??? Image

Someone needs to add a YTD line to this chart. That would provide confirmation (or not) of the correlation between historical trends and present patterns.

Bubba
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by Bubba »

Funny, I forgot that I posted this one. I guess I just "double" posted. Apologies, but I think the more see it the better. I.e. there is still (potentially) some hope at the end of the tunnel.

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12squared
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by 12squared »

As I read the legend, the red line applies to 2022. So I guess it's off the the races next week through mid October?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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bloobs
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:08 am As I read the legend, the red line applies to 2022. So I guess it's off the the races next week through mid October?
Yes, kinda, if you overlay SPX 2022's 20-day moving average on top of the red line.

Overlaying the SPX daily shows a lot of divergence in the short term timeframes, especially from mid-march to april-end period. However, smoothing it out with the 20-day MA does positively correlate well.

Bottom line: don't rely on day-to-day or even weekly correlations, but quarterly (e.g. Oct to Dec) is looking good.

wingchaser
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by wingchaser »

If memory serves me (correctly), 2008 was a Mid-Term Election Year…

I’ll probably double-post this lil’ tidbit!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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12squared
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by 12squared »

and they're off!
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by Tomanyiron »

"Mid-term election" expectations are driving some of this, don't you think? Stupidness looks to be bottoming-out soon?

md2018
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by md2018 »

wingchaser wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:19 pm If memory serves me (correctly), 2008 was a Mid-Term Election Year…

I’ll probably double-post this lil’ tidbit!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
2008 was actually a Presidential election year. Obama’s first term.

md2018
Posts: 180
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:17 pm

Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by md2018 »

Well if the Reps win the House tomorrow and Dems control the WH, regardless of how the Senate goes we will have a divided government keeping all parties in check for at least 2 years. Various commentators I’ve heard interpret this as a good thing in regards to the stock market.

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Aitrus
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Re: Mid-term election year pattern

Post by Aitrus »

Here's what equityclock.com has to say on how the election may or may not affect the market:
The bias of the market is that Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, a bias that has helped to support stocks in recent weeks given the more business friendly policies that the Republican party typically implements. According to the average pattern during mid-term election years, stocks tend to drift sideways following the election, through the middle of November, before turning higher again around month-end as the jovial sentiment that materializes around the US Thanksgiving holiday lifts stocks.
Source: http://www.equityclock.com/2022/11/05/s ... er-7-2022/
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2022-11-25

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.17 0.02% 2.59%
F $18.31 0.13% -12.35%
C $61.66 -0.03% -14.29%
S $65.01 0.27% -22.09%
I $34.21 0.59% -13.27%
L2065 $12.68 0.23% -14.82%
L2060 $12.68 0.23% -14.81%
L2055 $12.68 0.23% -14.80%
L2050 $26.21 0.20% -12.70%
L2045 $12.06 0.19% -11.82%
L2040 $44.40 0.18% -10.84%
L2035 $11.84 0.17% -9.77%
L2030 $39.82 0.15% -8.62%
L2025 $11.55 0.11% -5.68%
Linc $22.97 0.08% -2.17%

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