Mid-term election year pattern

[12squared]

Why stocks could bottom right around Election Day in November

[sprakass]

This is about right

[Bubba]

This one is also quite interesting. Could it be that simple???

[bloobs]

This one is also quite interesting. Could it be that simple???

Someone needs to add a YTD line to this chart. That would provide confirmation (or not) of the correlation between historical trends and present patterns.

[Bubba]

Funny, I forgot that I posted this one. I guess I just "double" posted. Apologies, but I think the more see it the better. I.e. there is still (potentially) some hope at the end of the tunnel.

[12squared]

As I read the legend, the red line applies to 2022. So I guess it's off the the races next week through mid October?

[bloobs]

As I read the legend, the red line applies to 2022. So I guess it's off the the races next week through mid October?

Yes, kinda, if you overlay SPX 2022's 20-day moving average on top of the red line.

Overlaying the SPX daily shows a lot of divergence in the short term timeframes, especially from mid-march to april-end period. However, smoothing it out with the 20-day MA does positively correlate well.

Bottom line: don't rely on day-to-day or even weekly correlations, but quarterly (e.g. Oct to Dec) is looking good.

[wingchaser]

If memory serves me (correctly), 2008 was a Mid-Term Election Year…

I’ll probably double-post this lil’ tidbit!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[12squared]

and they're off!

[Tomanyiron]

"Mid-term election" expectations are driving some of this, don't you think? Stupidness looks to be bottoming-out soon?

[md2018]

If memory serves me (correctly), 2008 was a Mid-Term Election Year…

I’ll probably double-post this lil’ tidbit!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

2008 was actually a Presidential election year. Obama’s first term.

[md2018]

Well if the Reps win the House tomorrow and Dems control the WH, regardless of how the Senate goes we will have a divided government keeping all parties in check for at least 2 years. Various commentators I’ve heard interpret this as a good thing in regards to the stock market.

[Aitrus]

Here's what equityclock.com has to say on how the election may or may not affect the market:

The bias of the market is that Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, a bias that has helped to support stocks in recent weeks given the more business friendly policies that the Republican party typically implements. According to the average pattern during mid-term election years, stocks tend to drift sideways following the election, through the middle of November, before turning higher again around month-end as the jovial sentiment that materializes around the US Thanksgiving holiday lifts stocks.

Source: http://www.equityclock.com/2022/11/05/s ... er-7-2022/