Currently in the market or not?

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Chulke
Posts: 383
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 10:25 am

Currently in the market or not?

Post by Chulke »

Soooooo....I have been out of the market, parked in G Fund since about mid-May...hard to tell exactly when since the TSP site has been updated and they have effectively deleted any and all past performance data... :evil:


Regardless of that I have been watching patiently on the sidelines hoping to see an entry point but nothing is coming up...in fact I still think this market has another 20-50% drop left in it...especially with inflation and everything else on going....I have even checked up on my trusty old TSPCALC strats and see that the ones I have been following are not performing well at all either, in fact they are all well on their way to posting their first negative year ever. So what's an investor to do?

Are yall playing the market? If so what TSPCALC strats are you trying to follow...cause the measly .94% return so far since May's TSP website reset...ain't gonna cut it!



Cheers!
Cheers!

Current Strat: Loosely following 152300 and 85660 more the former rather than the later
Current PIP: 24.04

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harpole
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by harpole »

Was following #168227 since March, until I decided to go buy & hold. That strat is still doing ok.
We've been moving downward since November 2021; almost a freaking year :evil: How much longer will this continue? I have no clue, so I ask myself if we are at the point we were at in 2008-2009? I don't think we are.
If we start to capitulate (maybe started this week?), then we know we are close to a bottom and recovery begins quickly afterwards.
Hopefully we don't redo October 2008 over again :cry:
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

wingchaser
Posts: 680
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by wingchaser »

Keep in Mind: If the Fed raises Interest Rates an “unprecedented” 3rd consecutive time by 75 Basis Points, Small Caps are goin’ to get crushed & guidance going forward (6-9 months) will be abysmal…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

KTSPcalc
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:22 pm

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by KTSPcalc »

I am currently in the G fund - - I was last in S fund at the end of August and am down 20% for the year.

That obviously hurts. If I was running a 50/50 S/C buy and hold, I'd be down just a touch more than that so seasonal trading hasn't really helped or hurt this year.

Until the beginning of September, I was running #170284. I felt pretty good through May then just got decimated in June and managed to miss the upswing in July.

I should be in the market now, but I decided to stay out until the Fed weighs in next week.

paul
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2010 6:06 pm

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by paul »

I have been pretty much buy and hold - 25% Stocks and 75% G in TSP, a mix of all stock and balanced funds in IRAs. I am about 40% stocks across my entire retirement port folio (TSP+IRAs). Retiring soon thanks to frugal living, FERS annuity and special supplement.

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Scarfinger
Posts: 738
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by Scarfinger »

paul wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:39 am I have been pretty much buy and hold - 25% Stocks and 75% G in TSP, a mix of all stock and balanced funds in IRAs. I am about 40% stocks across my entire retirement port folio (TSP+IRAs). Retiring soon thanks to frugal living, FERS annuity and special supplement.
Congratulations on your soon to be retirement paul!

For me? all in buy and hold, riding it out, 100% stocks at 45% C, 30% S and 25% I. Around 10 to 12 years before I retire. I am not planning on getting conservative until we recover?? or I hit 400k+ in my TSP. So far only at 185K and dropping :|

Good luck to me 8-)
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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harpole
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by harpole »

wingchaser wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:58 am Keep in Mind: If the Fed raises Interest Rates an “unprecedented” 3rd consecutive time by 75 Basis Points, Small Caps are goin’ to get crushed & guidance going forward (6-9 months) will be abysmal…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You called it...
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

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bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by bloobs »

harpole wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:37 pm
wingchaser wrote: Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:58 am Keep in Mind: If the Fed raises Interest Rates an “unprecedented” 3rd consecutive time by 75 Basis Points, Small Caps are goin’ to get crushed & guidance going forward (6-9 months) will be abysmal…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
You called it...
Wing sure did. FWIW this may be a major notch in the capitulation argument for equities. But i'm probably not buying it (pun intended) until a confirmed supertrend reversal.

ripp002
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:55 pm

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by ripp002 »

Be interesting to see if the G Fund hits 4%. Not a bad place to be right now....

Midway
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by Midway »

out

wingchaser
Posts: 680
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Currently in the market or not?

Post by wingchaser »

paul wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:39 am I have been pretty much buy and hold - 25% Stocks and 75% G in TSP, a mix of all stock and balanced funds in IRAs. I am about 40% stocks across my entire retirement port folio (TSP+IRAs). Retiring soon thanks to frugal living, FERS annuity and special supplement.
Don’t forget to take your Health Plan (with you), the Government continues matching. The only drawback is that it’s paid with Post-Tax dollars. Unless, your ex-Military (of course), then you have your own Health Plan all laid out before you…

Still, this one (1) bene’ is unparalleled across any Industry!!!

Congrats, Paul!!!

Biden just upped the MRA to 74.5 for Mandatory withdrawals & I think I’ll hang around until then. Especially since our Agency is (more than likely) going to stay with the 4 days/week Telework Option as a form of Retention/Attraction. Brutal schedule? I know!!!

…but someone’s got to do it & I’m just the Man for the job.

FINAL THOUGHT (Health Plan): Kaiser Permanente has the best “catastrophic” coverage, in the event that (God Forbid) one is hospitalized to exceed 6 months. Back when we were “young” (BRIEF HISTORY), Kaiser was thought to be a joke, as they would oftentimes either mis-diagnose or forego procedures altogether (as cost-reduction measures). Now, as a major leader in the industry, Physicians are rushing to be a part of the network & Kaiser is partnered with many Speciality-Hospitals in any given Metropolitan area. Several years ago, when I suffered a Cardiac-Event, Kaiser farmed me out to Washington Hospital Center (DC Metro Region), one (1) of the top Pulmonary Hospitals in the Country, for one (1) week’s time, for extensive testing & observation. Needless to say, this was worth the price of admission (carnival-reference) right there…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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Fund Prices2022-11-29

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.18 0.01% 2.63%
F $18.21 -0.38% -12.79%
C $60.62 -0.15% -15.74%
S $63.88 0.20% -23.44%
I $33.82 0.38% -14.25%
L2065 $12.49 0.08% -16.09%
L2060 $12.49 0.08% -16.08%
L2055 $12.49 0.08% -16.07%
L2050 $25.88 0.04% -13.80%
L2045 $11.91 0.04% -12.87%
L2040 $43.91 0.03% -11.82%
L2035 $11.72 0.03% -10.68%
L2030 $39.45 0.03% -9.46%
L2025 $11.48 0.01% -6.25%
Linc $22.89 0.01% -2.53%

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