Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

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Optimus187
Posts: 121
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:22 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Optimus187 »

Tomanyiron wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:15 am “Where this bear market ultimately bottoms is anyone’s guess, and events outside of the Fed’s control will likely play a role in where the market finally ends up,”
The Fed's inflation expectations are still high. And it looks the 'Inflation Reduction Act' is doing just the opposite. Any benefits to people will be eclipsed by the higher prices on everything else. Reckless printing of money causes high inflation, "follow the science".
I also thought that building back better meant the opposite of the present. Guess I dont know nuffin

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jimcasada
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Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

Ok, I hope harpole knows what he's doing because I switched over S, effective this after the close today. If not, "misery love's company" is what they say....

Jimmyk65
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:33 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Jimmyk65 »

Bloobs. You make a good observation. I heard that period termed the lost decade. I am not sure when one decides to get back in. I am currently out since the 1-2-22. Want to get back in but I am struggling to see where. Some have made a return on the short rallies but that is pretty stressful. Hard to bet against the fed. Tough year.

Jimmyk65
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Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:33 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Jimmyk65 »

Jim C. I do hope things turn around and you catch a good rally.
Best.

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harpole
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Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by harpole »

jimcasada wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm Ok, I hope harpole knows what he's doing because I switched over S, effective this after the close today. If not, "misery love's company" is what they say....
I do not! LOL. I was up over 20% this year! Now, I will be negative after today :cry: (buy and hold sucks)

But, it's way to hard to catch the actual bottom. If you can get within 5-10% then your good. That last 5-10% moves really quick on the way BACK up.

We've been discussing capitulation this past week and I believe a bottom is near once we get through that. There is an argument about whether we are currently in that phase (I think the S fund is), but either way, buying in now (for long term) should be a good bet.

Remember, I lost over 20% since August.....
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

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harpole
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Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by harpole »

I just noticed we have a new "balance" king. Congrats to TSP_NUBI for passing McLovin.
Not far behind is Wing and Sig, who also have some deep pockets. Note that Sig joined the S fund crowd today as well.
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4799
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Tomanyiron »

harpole wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:08 pm I just noticed we have a new "balance" king. Congrats to TSP_NUBI for passing McLovin.
Not far behind is Wing and Sig, who also have some deep pockets. Note that Sig joined the S fund crowd today as well.
And Buy-n-Hold C Fund is at #8, doesn't that make you mad?Image

wingchaser
Posts: 679
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by wingchaser »

Hate to be the naysayer (here), but bottom lines & guidance (goin’ forward), have yet to be truly impacted…

Real Estate, Auto’s, Tech’s - major industries are just beginning to tank…

In many respect’s, we may not have seen anything (yet)…

Hope I’m wrong!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

wingchaser
Posts: 679
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by wingchaser »

harpole wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:08 pm I just noticed we have a new "balance" king. Congrats to TSP_NUBI for passing McLovin.
Not far behind is Wing and Sig, who also have some deep pockets. Note that Sig joined the S fund crowd today as well.
Harp:

The only reason I even rate is because I’m one (1) of the old-timer’s on this site, that’s all…

I will say (though) I’ve made a recent dramatic increase from 55th to wherever I currently sit…

Thanx for the shout-out!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

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IRQVET
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by IRQVET »

jimcasada wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm Ok, I hope harpole knows what he's doing because I switched over S, effective this after the close today. If not, "misery love's company" is what they say....
I've been 50% G 50% S for what feels like forever now, and I've lost my shirt this year. Hopefully I'll be running with the kewl kids again. :lol:
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Buy Gold, (Yesterday).
A good video about that, and where we are at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-w8GKKMvq0

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jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

harpole wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:01 pm
jimcasada wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm Ok, I hope harpole knows what he's doing because I switched over S, effective this after the close today. If not, "misery love's company" is what they say....
I do not! LOL. I was up over 20% this year! Now, I will be negative after today :cry: (buy and hold sucks)

But, it's way to hard to catch the actual bottom. If you can get within 5-10% then your good. That last 5-10% moves really quick on the way BACK up.

We've been discussing capitulation this past week and I believe a bottom is near once we get through that. There is an argument about whether we are currently in that phase (I think the S fund is), but either way, buying in now (for long term) should be a good bet.

Remember, I lost over 20% since August.....
We're back above water today!

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harpole
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:25 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by harpole »

jimcasada wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:43 am
harpole wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:01 pm
jimcasada wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:24 pm Ok, I hope harpole knows what he's doing because I switched over S, effective this after the close today. If not, "misery love's company" is what they say....
I do not! LOL. I was up over 20% this year! Now, I will be negative after today :cry: (buy and hold sucks)

But, it's way to hard to catch the actual bottom. If you can get within 5-10% then your good. That last 5-10% moves really quick on the way BACK up.

We've been discussing capitulation this past week and I believe a bottom is near once we get through that. There is an argument about whether we are currently in that phase (I think the S fund is), but either way, buying in now (for long term) should be a good bet.

Remember, I lost over 20% since August.....
We're back above water today!
It felt good for a day!
Never underestimate the true intentions and overreach of the regime.
Less Government, More Freedom!

User avatar
jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

Tomorrow is the last day of the fiscal year for the government and most private companies. Oct 1 to the end of Dec is generally a good time period for the markets. You have to go back to 2018 to see a real decline.

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bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by bloobs »

jimcasada wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:18 pm Tomorrow is the last day of the fiscal year for the government and most private companies. Oct 1 to the end of Dec is generally a good time period for the markets. You have to go back to 2018 to see a real decline.
Specifically and statistically, the uptrend actually begins the last week of October for 1st term Democratic Pres. admins. during midterm election years. But again, "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". That should have been obvious for most of us now since January of this year :oops: :shock: :x

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Fund Prices2022-11-25

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.17 0.02% 2.59%
F $18.31 0.13% -12.35%
C $61.66 -0.03% -14.29%
S $65.01 0.27% -22.09%
I $34.21 0.59% -13.27%
L2065 $12.68 0.23% -14.82%
L2060 $12.68 0.23% -14.81%
L2055 $12.68 0.23% -14.80%
L2050 $26.21 0.20% -12.70%
L2045 $12.06 0.19% -11.82%
L2040 $44.40 0.18% -10.84%
L2035 $11.84 0.17% -9.77%
L2030 $39.82 0.15% -8.62%
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Linc $22.97 0.08% -2.17%

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