Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

General TSP Discussion.

Moderator: Aitrus

User avatar
Scarfinger
Posts: 738
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Scarfinger »

harpole wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:52 am
jimcasada wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:43 am
harpole wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:01 pm

I do not! LOL. I was up over 20% this year! Now, I will be negative after today :cry: (buy and hold sucks)

But, it's way to hard to catch the actual bottom. If you can get within 5-10% then your good. That last 5-10% moves really quick on the way BACK up.

We've been discussing capitulation this past week and I believe a bottom is near once we get through that. There is an argument about whether we are currently in that phase (I think the S fund is), but either way, buying in now (for long term) should be a good bet.

Remember, I lost over 20% since August.....
We're back above water today!
It felt good for a day!
From an article on what the 80's taught us:
First, because it had multiple, severe downturns, the Volcker era was disastrous for anyone who traded actively and bet wrong on the direction of the markets. Short-term trading in stocks, bonds and commodities is a hazardous game. It’s especially dangerous when the market’s currents are opaque and treacherously strong, as they were back then and may be now.
The Volcker era illustrates the problem emphatically. Over the long haul, investors did fine. Over short periods, their experience was maddening.
It may feel "maddening" now and recency bias may be setting in... just give it 10 years and everything should be ok. If not, give it another 5 more years?

Best of luck everyone!
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

User avatar
jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

Back above water today, again!

User avatar
jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

I switched back to G this morning on my real account, but I forgot to change it here until about 12:25am. I think we're allowed a little extra time here. Not sure if that's going to count for today or tomorrow?

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by bloobs »

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/jim-cra ... weeks.html

Crap, Cramer and I seem to be of the same mind nowadays. Not good, I'll need to reassess now :?

User avatar
Tomanyiron
Posts: 4799
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Tomanyiron »

US national debt now tops $31 trillion for the first time ever.
1- That boils down to more than $93,000 of debt for every person in the country.
2- Currently, more than $965 million is spent every day just in interest on the national debt.
3- The rising interest rates will only exacerbate the national debt, making it harder for the government to respond to a slowing economy.
3- Policies and programs brought in by the Biden Administration are expected to add trillions more over the next decade.
4- The national debt is the biggest threat to the American standard of living.
5- The coming catastrophe will be dumped at the feet of the next administration.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-natio ... 00112.html

User avatar
Scarfinger
Posts: 738
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Scarfinger »

I could be wrong but I feel like this is the narrative at the beginning of every administration.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

User avatar
Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2318
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by Aitrus »

Let's stay away from politics, guys. I know it's that time of year again, but let's keep the discussions focused on investing, retirement planning, etc.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

User avatar
jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

The old saying is that there are 3 things you don't want to talk about: politics, religion and money. We're already making an exception here on the money thing. Isn't that enough?

User avatar
IRQVET
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by IRQVET »

Aitrus wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 5:21 pm Let's stay away from politics, guys. I know it's that time of year again, but let's keep the discussions focused on investing, retirement planning, etc.
It’s so hard though given the current climate.
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by bloobs »

jimcasada wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:57 pm The old saying is that there are 3 things you don't want to talk about: politics, religion and money. We're already making an exception here on the money thing. Isn't that enough?
You forgot sex.

User avatar
jimcasada
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by jimcasada »

I'm a doer, not a talker.

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by bloobs »

jimcasada wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:00 am I'm a doer, not a talker.
Image

wingchaser
Posts: 679
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: Third Leg Down- History Repeating?

Post by wingchaser »

bloobs wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:13 pm
jimcasada wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:57 pm The old saying is that there are 3 things you don't want to talk about: politics, religion and money. We're already making an exception here on the money thing. Isn't that enough?
You forgot sex.
“We” NEVER forget about s*x, even as we fast approach our 70’s…

Moi!!!

BLOOBSIE has “instantly” become my fav!!!

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

Post Reply

Fund Prices2022-11-25

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.17 0.02% 2.59%
F $18.31 0.13% -12.35%
C $61.66 -0.03% -14.29%
S $65.01 0.27% -22.09%
I $34.21 0.59% -13.27%
L2065 $12.68 0.23% -14.82%
L2060 $12.68 0.23% -14.81%
L2055 $12.68 0.23% -14.80%
L2050 $26.21 0.20% -12.70%
L2045 $12.06 0.19% -11.82%
L2040 $44.40 0.18% -10.84%
L2035 $11.84 0.17% -9.77%
L2030 $39.82 0.15% -8.62%
L2025 $11.55 0.11% -5.68%
Linc $22.97 0.08% -2.17%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".