From an article on what the 80's taught us:harpole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:52 amIt felt good for a day!jimcasada wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:43 amWe're back above water today!harpole wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:01 pm
I do not! LOL. I was up over 20% this year! Now, I will be negative after today (buy and hold sucks)
But, it's way to hard to catch the actual bottom. If you can get within 5-10% then your good. That last 5-10% moves really quick on the way BACK up.
We've been discussing capitulation this past week and I believe a bottom is near once we get through that. There is an argument about whether we are currently in that phase (I think the S fund is), but either way, buying in now (for long term) should be a good bet.
Remember, I lost over 20% since August.....
First, because it had multiple, severe downturns, the Volcker era was disastrous for anyone who traded actively and bet wrong on the direction of the markets. Short-term trading in stocks, bonds and commodities is a hazardous game. It’s especially dangerous when the market’s currents are opaque and treacherously strong, as they were back then and may be now.
It may feel "maddening" now and recency bias may be setting in... just give it 10 years and everything should be ok. If not, give it another 5 more years?The Volcker era illustrates the problem emphatically. Over the long haul, investors did fine. Over short periods, their experience was maddening.
Best of luck everyone!