Long term correspondence betwen TSP funds and live chart symbols

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snoopyd
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:52 pm

Long term correspondence betwen TSP funds and live chart symbols

Post by snoopyd »

Hi guys. For years I have always looked at the live chart symbols (^DWCPF, EFA, etc..) that were said to be approximately similar to the TSP funds and never doubted them. But I was just doing some analysis using some reference points over a large timeframe (e.g 2/25/20 vs last Friday) on EFA vs I fund. The numbers came out to be:

on 2/25/20 I Fund @ 30.43 and EFA @ 64.45
on 9/23/22 I Fund @ 29.11 and EFA @ 56.76

for I Fund: (29.11 - 30.43) / 30.43 = -4.3%
for EFA: (56.76 - 64.45) / 64.45 = -11.93%

I'm not sure if I misunderstand something. I didn't look at the F, C and S, but just on the I fund as an example, the % difference is quite large between EFA and I fund over roughly 2.5 years. Could it be that we should only use the EFA to estimate the I fund for a short term but don't rely on them at all for the long term?

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mjedlin66
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Posts: 1513
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: Long term correspondence betwen TSP funds and live chart symbols

Post by mjedlin66 »

EFA is considerably different than the I fund. The chief difference is the pseudo magic known as "fair valuation", which is performed by Blackrock after close each day. It considers currency fluctuations and also current events. I don't know of any way of modeling it.

It is maddening. But until the TSP posts their daily I fund prices each day, the EFA is the closest bet.

Long term, absolutely use the I fund share prices instead of EFA.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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12squared
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: Long term correspondence betwen TSP funds and live chart symbols

Post by 12squared »

You also need to consider that dividends get rolled into the price. This is true for all the funds.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend — not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"You'll have to adapt or you'll be out of style."
- Robert Smith

snoopyd
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:52 pm

Re: Long term correspondence betwen TSP funds and live chart symbols

Post by snoopyd »

Thanks for the insights, mjedlin66 and 12squared!

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Fund Prices2022-11-25

FundPriceDayYTD
G $17.17 0.02% 2.59%
F $18.31 0.13% -12.35%
C $61.66 -0.03% -14.29%
S $65.01 0.27% -22.09%
I $34.21 0.59% -13.27%
L2065 $12.68 0.23% -14.82%
L2060 $12.68 0.23% -14.81%
L2055 $12.68 0.23% -14.80%
L2050 $26.21 0.20% -12.70%
L2045 $12.06 0.19% -11.82%
L2040 $44.40 0.18% -10.84%
L2035 $11.84 0.17% -9.77%
L2030 $39.82 0.15% -8.62%
L2025 $11.55 0.11% -5.68%
Linc $22.97 0.08% -2.17%

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