OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

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bloobs
Posts: 1436
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by bloobs »

Curious about everyone's take on this...

Which factors will drive the market levels in the next 3 months? Is it:
- Fed interest rate announcements
- Seasonal patterns (i.e. midterm election patterns, or any other statistics-based factor)
- A black swan event (i.e. tactical nukes, China/USA housing crash, COVID part deux, etc.)

If you choose more than one, then rank them on the order of influence.

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jimcasada
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Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by jimcasada »

I choose D, all of the above.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Something told me this cartoon would be better somewhere else.
Image

jatelle
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Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:36 pm

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by jatelle »

I don't have a crystal ball but I would say:
#1 Corporate Earnings
#2 a Black Swan event (this would include another Global Pandemic, God forbid)
#3 Inflation, Fed Interest/Bond Yields

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bloobs
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Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:29 am I don't have a crystal ball but I would say:
#1 Corporate Earnings
#2 a Black Swan event (this would include another Global Pandemic, God forbid)
#3 Inflation, Fed Interest/Bond Yields
Ooooh, i forgot about earnings season. Thanks!

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Snapdragon
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by Snapdragon »

I think the gov is doing a great job ruining things. 1st place Fed but it is tied to so much other stuff to bring our economy down (housing, earnings, etc). I'm curious to see how the election results change anything (have my doubts it will be a big enough impact).

wingchaser
Posts: 679
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:39 am

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by wingchaser »

US War Ships in the Asia Pacific & a stone’s throw from moving in US Troops to NATO Countries, in an attempt to fend off Putin’s Nuclear Threat; Global economies already teeterin’ on the brink of the Abyss…

I guess I’m leanin’ towards a BLACK SWAN (1st Place), if I can get past our self-inflicted carnage (#2)…

Earnings should surprise no one, pessimistic-speak (#3)…

Red Wave #4 (on the Horizon) could help to change things up “long-term” (close your ears, Aitrus)…

My favorite time of the year (Autumn #5) will have “absolutely” no impact on things (external to my inner soul)…

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t... pays it.” ~ Albert Einstein

bizkikr
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:29 pm

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by bizkikr »

Consider 2 factors, Valuation (go Quant types) and Market Sentiment (Irrational Catalyst). How these play out helps in the boom/bust cycle. There's a lot of negative sentiment out there compared to this time last year. So how's a forward looking Mr. Market expected to buy the dip?

Currently 95%G with contributions 100%G.

Would like another random opportunity like last Monday and Tuesday to go 100% S just to hit the eject button 36 hours later.

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Snapdragon
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:26 pm

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by Snapdragon »

Buy the dip for long-term hold happens next year

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IRQVET
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: OPINION POLL: Which factors will drive market levels in the next 3 months?

Post by IRQVET »

November will play a bigger factor than some would like to admit . . .
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

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