If you had to do it all over again?

[Tomanyiron]

"In many states, welfare pays more than or nearly as much as respectable middle-class jobs.
Under Presidents Barack Obama and Biden, many of the highly effective work requirements, which were instituted in the historic 1996 bipartisan welfare reforms, have been eviscerated. Often limits for public benefits have also disappeared while Congress and states have made benefits more generous.

In some states families can earn over six figures annually in unemployment benefits.
Many programs, like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (a k a food stamps), are means tested, so that only low-income people qualify for them. But other handouts are not — including unemployment insurance and ObamaCare subsidies.

The value of these benefits can be staggering — much higher, in fact, than many blue-collar professions."

[Aitrus]

We're starting to veer close to the political line, folks. Remember: if you bring up something that can be construed as political, then you also need to explain how it relates to the economy / TSP / retirement. The rule is no purely political posts / sniping / nit-picking.

[bloobs]

Bloobs Holiday PSA part deux:

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
- Albert Einstein

“Bad habits are our enemies because they hinder us from being the person we want to be.”
- Joyce Meyer

“Quit It.”
- Moi

[Tomanyiron]

Bloobs Holiday PSA part deux:

How?

[bloobs]

Bloobs Holiday PSA part deux:

How?

https://theundercoverrecruiter.com/unde ... ad-habits/
I am a big proponent of tips #2 and #4

[jimcasada]

"In many states, welfare pays more than or nearly as much as respectable middle-class jobs.
Under Presidents Barack Obama and Biden, many of the highly effective work requirements, which were instituted in the historic 1996 bipartisan welfare reforms, have been eviscerated. Often limits for public benefits have also disappeared while Congress and states have made benefits more generous.

In some states families can earn over six figures annually in unemployment benefits.
Many programs, like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (a k a food stamps), are means tested, so that only low-income people qualify for them. But other handouts are not — including unemployment insurance and ObamaCare subsidies.

The value of these benefits can be staggering — much higher, in fact, than many blue-collar professions."

So, what is this supposed to prove? First off, unemployment insurance is not a government handout. It is a benefit earned through your work for an employer. Your chart says it is for "two" beneficiaries "annualized" over one year, which means that they most likely did not receive that rate of compensation for the entire year. Unemployment insurance is usually limited to just so many weeks. Also, I see no reference as to who made this chart or where it came from. Again, what's this supposed to prove?

[Bubba]

My chosen strategy is up by almost 10% this year, but still it's not the usual 20 to 50% I was hoping. Nothing to complain about (e.g. I could be in the S and down over 26%!). Having said that, there are a few strategies that actually do make sense with very low SDs and great returns. I would suggest checking 170119 and 169608. Both have great returns, including this year. I'm thinking of going that direction as I'm a bit on the "tired" side of trying to predict the future.

Both have great returns, but some of their success was due to hindsight.
169608 was +4.17% YTD when it was created 2022-06-16. As of 16 Dec it is +12.66%, or up more than 8% since creation.
170119 was +15.88% YTD when it was created 2022-06-16. As of 16 Dec it is +11.12%, or down ~4.5% since creation.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=169 ... rks=170119

TSPcalc 169608 & 170119 YTD 16Dec22.png

Here are a few created before 1 Jan 2022 which are still positive as of 16 Dec 22. All (except #24) had positive returns from 2004-21, most of which were in the double digits. All but one took a hit in the past few days.
https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=24& ... 225-153763

Thanks and good point. I would think that some recency bias could be included in both, although the 2nd one was down by the time it was created (making that a bad decision...at the time).

I'm still using a different one for reference for next year, but I'm using both as background guidance. For now, given all the bearish sentiment in the market, I'm going from being a full contrarian to wondering about a "self-fulfilling prophecy." Interestingly enough, the original creator of the 3M vs. 10 YR indicator and saying that he's thinking we'll hit a "soft landing." I'm hearing that so often that I'm wondering what that really means... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond- ... quote_news. Good luck to all!

[Bubba]

We could've lessen the impact, but we made it worse.

I have a really hard time when things are parroted without much data. Please look here from one of the world's leading economists:

https://twitter.com/markzandi/status/15 ... 7506793473

I could go into why that's the case, but I've learned that arguing online doesn't do anything. People end up thinking the same way as they did before and I waste an inordinate amount of time looking for data. Additionally, anger and frustration sets in and you get nowhere. So, I'll just leave this here.

For now, I would much rather enjoy some Santa Claus in my TSP account right about now...

[hamjam916]

So your idea of adding "data" to the discussion is to provide input from one economist....as Harry Truman said: “Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say ‘on the one hand… [and then] on the other.'”

[harpole]

I've switched my way of thinking over the last 1.5 years into how to thrive in a totalitarian government system. I try to see how other countries function in such a system and then do what I think is best financially (and for the safety) for my family. I start to look out in the real world; what am I physically seeing on the streets, in my office, at the mall, dealership, schools, etc. How is what I'm seeing being reflected in the "media" and "government" reports. I think Powell has been warning us of pain for a reason and the world's political elite have an agenda that they are hellbent on achieving. Just MY two cents.....

Also, I still think a Santa rally is possible, but we were due for a bounce because of "sledding" down the lower band. Hoping next week is a rally, but then I see more "pain" ahead. We had a massive bull run over the years and lots of investors only know a world of easy money. We may be getting more in line with the market conditions of the late 60's and 70's. We shall see.

Looking at today's action makes me want to jump back in, but the other side of me says to keep my hands in my pockets and lock-in a 9% for the year... Merry Christmas.

[IRQVET]

We're starting to veer close to the political line, folks. Remember: if you bring up something that can be construed as political, then you also need to explain how it relates to the economy / TSP / retirement. The rule is no purely political posts / sniping / nit-picking.

My bad bro.

[Bubba]

So your idea of adding "data" to the discussion is to provide input from one economist....as Harry Truman said: “Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say ‘on the one hand… [and then] on the other.'”

I'm going to take that as a moment to give us a great quote and that you didn't read the information. Please do take a moment and read the information. Zandi is one of the foremost economists in the US.

In hoping everyone's 2023 is awesome!

Bubba

[bloobs]

Anybody else got the feeling we're being forcefully shaken out of the market the last few days in preparation for yet another out-of-the-blue bull run in January?

[jatelle]

Bloobs, I got that same feeling. On Dec 21st the market surged up and broke through the 50 SMA - suggesting there was more upside to come, which coaxed several of us to jump in. Then the market spent the next 6 days pulling back from that message. Today it made a higher low which is promising but could also be a fake out. So I chose to be conservative and pulled out today but stayed in 25% with the hope of a January rally - but I am not holding my breath.

[bloobs]

Bloobs, I got that same feeling....

Volume pick up after 3pm today adds more suspicion.