Highly recommend

[bloobs]

Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda

In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.

Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol

[12squared]

Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda

In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.

Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol

Grow Fund returns as of 11/30/22 must have been based on Alternate facts.

[Bubba]

Just think if people actually critiqued all the government propaganda

Twitter and certain media do nothing "but" that...

[Bubba]

In this case, the "critique" was based on analysis of the facts.

Analysis of immutable facts as a basis for decision making is sooooo pre-2016 lol

Grow Fund returns as of 11/30/22 must have been based on Alternate facts.

Interesting point. A year ago I was curious to growth funds. I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.

[bloobs]

I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.

Interesting The only downside to this schedule would be, I imagine, a very large standard deviation, due to the extended periods between these inversions cycles. Is there a symbol you used for the 3yr v 10yr chart?

[Bubba]

I grabbed a few Fidelity growth funds (because I can easily access their data going back to the 80s). I found if you invested in those funds and then went to treasuries whenever the 3M vs 10 Yr uninverted (assuming there's an inversion here), you would get a CAGR of over 19%. That's from about 1988 to 2022 (I can't remember if it was July or August). Depending on the fund, you could also get a bit more (or less).

As a side note, I haven't invested like that, but it was a very interesting study to say the least.

Interesting The only downside to this schedule would be, I imagine, a very large standard deviation, due to the extended periods between these inversions cycles. Is there a symbol you used for the 3yr v 10yr chart?

Yeah, the main problem was the timing. Most of the time, the "uninversion" was the trigger, but sometimes there was pain beforehand. The SD wasn't terrible, but it was about 20 or so (depending on the fund).

I also used long-term treasuries as my hide out, but this time around long-terms would have been painful.

In any case, it did show me the primary reason why value outperforms growth over a long period of time (20 years +). (a) Value does better (typically) during high inflation periods and (b) during downturns as those stocks typically are already discounted prior to the pain. For that reason, you get outperformance when you buy and hold value over growth. If you decide to actively trade, which we do (sort of) with the TSPCalc systems, then you can outperform value too. Here's to hoping all of us kill it in 2023!

[12squared]

"UPDATE"
Below is the explanation from GMTSP Admin

"Their formula included the performance on the day of the Alert. An unacceptable mistake from both their perspective and mine. KIS is recreating their original spreadsheet with the correct inputs.
We have taken down the Performance page on our site. We will bring it back online once we have the new performance data in hand."

Seems like an honest mistake, My faith is restored for now. On their podcasts they really seem like good guys just trying to educate and help fellow veterans and civil servants.

Yes, I agree they seem to be very well meaning guys. It will be interesting to see what their performance metrics are with the corrected inputs. Could you share it here once it is back up online?

Performance has been updated. I first noticed it in the pull-down menu on my Android device, but you can't find it from a laptop. However, the old link is working again.
https://growmytsp.com/performance/

[jatelle]

The numbers look more in line now. But someone really needs to help them scrub their numbers before publishing. This redo still has an error: it posted the F fund 3 year return as a loss of -2.62% when it is actually a positive 2.62% return. It is minor but it makes me doubt the reliability of the rest of their figures.

[bloobs]

The numbers look more in line now. But someone really needs to help them scrub their numbers before publishing. This redo still has an error: it posted the F fund 3 year return as a loss of -2.62% when it is actually a positive 2.62% return. It is minor but it makes me doubt the reliability of the rest of their figures.

I actually allocated a small position in a taxable account base on their allocation. But as you said, continuing discoveries of discrepancies in their updated calculations (and more importantly, the much reduced returns data shown in the latest corrected version) has me putting at least stop loss orders for those buys this morning. If these get triggered, I will revert that bucket of money into a short-term trading methodology. Yes, somewhat disappointed.

[jackyl33]

I have to apologize. I was so excited when GrowMyTSP released their performance numbers at the beginning of this year that I wanted to share this with all of the awesome people here at tspcenter.com

I enjoy their analysis and podcast, but I've become skeptical.

Best of luck to everyone this year.

[12squared]

I have to apologize. I was so excited when GrowMyTSP released their performance numbers at the beginning of this year that I wanted to share this with all of the awesome people here at tspcenter.com

I enjoy their analysis and podcast, but I've become skeptical.

Best of luck to everyone this year.

I was excited at first too. However, after a while I realized that their analysis wasn't all that sophisticated, and that their allocations were fairly conservative - better for avoiding downturns like in '20 & '22 than outperforming the market in good years.

I also couldn't sit through the banter of their hour-long podcasts. I get much more from a few minutes reading the daily market analysis on TSPtalk.

[Bubba]

If you really care to learn new things about the market, then I would suggest spending many hours here https://jayonthemarkets.com/. Jay has been one of the biggest changes in my life and the author is very affable too! Always willing to reconsider his writing. You will not leave his website without having learned new things...many which you can use for the TSP too.

[jedi757]

Its a bull shit site. Don't bother.