So....

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bloobs
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So....

Post by bloobs »

...if and when US banks fail, the Fed or Treasury can if they wish bail them out. How about foreign banks (hint: Credit Suisse and whoever else out there)? Does the culture of too-big-to-fail exists overseas too?

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IRQVET
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Re: So....

Post by IRQVET »

bloobs wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:29 pm ...if and when US banks fail, the Fed or Treasury can if they wish bail them out. How about foreign banks (hint: Credit Suisse and whoever else out there)? Does the culture of too-big-to-fail exists overseas too?
Depend who’s political campaign they contributed too, or what influential politican has sizable funds in said institution. Follow the money . . .
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer. (As they always seem to know more than the rest of us)

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bloobs
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Re: So....

Post by bloobs »

I think I got my answer late yesterday's news. Having said, the impact of a EU bank pseudo-bailout on sentiment is up in the air.

So, my follow-up question is (Jatelle, Wing and 12^2 chime in please) for tomorrow' s Quad witching -- should I follow:
1. The Options-driven market driver thoery that major indices will close tomorrow between the monthly put and call walls, which for SPY is ***ABOVE*** 392, or

2. Assume that the market has reverted to pricing according to fundamentals, meaning SPY will crash to the next support level, which is in the 380s.

Hmm - which to believe.....

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jatelle
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Re: So....

Post by jatelle »

bloobs wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:24 am I think I got my answer late yesterday's news. Having said, the impact of a EU bank pseudo-bailout on sentiment is up in the air.

So, my follow-up question is (Jatelle, Wing and 12^2 chime in please) for tomorrow' s Quad witching -- should I follow:
1. The Options-driven market driver thoery that major indices will close tomorrow between the monthly put and call walls, which for SPY is ***ABOVE*** 392, or

2. Assume that the market has reverted to pricing according to fundamentals, meaning SPY will crash to the next support level, which is in the 380s.

Hmm - which to believe.....
Hey Bloobs, I don't see the market reversing to 380 tomorrow (#2). So #1 is the most likely scenario. The 200 SMA is at 392.91 so if price were to dip it should bounce off it - as there is a big darkpool order level there at 392.67. I think we will see a range day between 392 and 398. Check out the morning summary on Tradytics Twitter feed for a good run down of the market levels.
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bloobs
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Re: So....

Post by bloobs »

jatelle wrote: Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:22 am Hey Bloobs, I don't see the market reversing to 380 tomorrow (#2). So #1 is the most likely scenario. The 200 SMA is at 392.91 so if price were to dip it should bounce off it - as there is a big darkpool order level there at 392.67. I think we will see a range day between 392 and 398. Check out the morning summary on Tradytics Twitter feed for a good run down of the market levels.
Sigh...they got me too. Was supposed to IFT into I couple of days ago (but held back due to quantifiably high risk/reward ratio) which in hindsight would have been a spectacular entry.

Small consolation is that I did buy $35k EFA from an IRA account on that day, but that's a small fraction compared to my TSP balance. That's why I'll never be "wealthy" (but kinda "rich" should be good enough) :? Keep telling yourself that bloobs

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12squared
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Re: So....

Post by 12squared »

bloobs wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 11:24 am I think I got my answer late yesterday's news. Having said, the impact of a EU bank pseudo-bailout on sentiment is up in the air.

So, my follow-up question is (Jatelle, Wing and 12^2 chime in please) for tomorrow' s Quad witching -- should I follow:
1. The Options-driven market driver thoery that major indices will close tomorrow between the monthly put and call walls, which for SPY is ***ABOVE*** 392, or

2. Assume that the market has reverted to pricing according to fundamentals, meaning SPY will crash to the next support level, which is in the 380s.

Hmm - which to believe.....
$SPX looks to be making higher lows. However, small caps continue a sideways slide. Despite this morning's market declines, Bullish Percent Indexes are rising on consecutive days – a good sign, considering that $BPNYA is below 35% and $BPSPX is below 30%. This gives more room to rise than on March 3-6 when BPs were just under 50%, but fell on the 3rd day.
$SPX Bullish Percent
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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jatelle
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Re: So....

Post by jatelle »

Update: Just more uncertainty surrounding the financial markets. Next support level is back to the MEAN Standard Deviation at 384/385.
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12squared
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Re: So....

Post by 12squared »

Volume of the Momentum Factor ETF was significantly higher Friday than it has been over the past 3 months.
MTUM- 16Sep22-17Mar23.png
A pull-away from the Bollinger Band along with a flip of PSAR(0.01,0.2) might indicate a market upturn, as in October.
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“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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bloobs
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Re: So....

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:52 am Volume of the Momentum Factor ETF was significantly higher Friday than it has been over the past 3
A pull-away from the Bollinger Band along with a flip of PSAR(0.01,0.2) might indicate a market upturn, as in October.
12^2
Here's to TA indicators working somewhat reliably again in this environment :D

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12squared
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Re: So....

Post by 12squared »

bloobs wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:30 am
12squared wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:52 am Volume of the Momentum Factor ETF was significantly higher Friday than it has been over the past 3
A pull-away from the Bollinger Band along with a flip of PSAR(0.01,0.2) might indicate a market upturn, as in October.
12^2
Here's to TA indicators working somewhat reliably again in this environment :D
It really depends on how indicators are tuned. MTUM didn't make as much sense using the PSAR parameters I prefer for NYSE Breadth Momentum: (0.02,0.5) & (0.05,0.2).
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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12squared
Posts: 675
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:28 am

Re: So....

Post by 12squared »

bloobs wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:30 am
12squared wrote: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:52 am Volume of the Momentum Factor ETF was significantly higher Friday than it has been over the past 3
A pull-away from the Bollinger Band along with a flip of PSAR(0.01,0.2) might indicate a market upturn, as in October.
12^2
Here's to TA indicators working somewhat reliably again in this environment :D
MTUM 15Sep22-27Mar23+.png
Let's see if March rhymes with October...or January.
NYSE breadth 15Sep22-27Mar23+.png
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“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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