Hi MJ

[jimcasada]

You don't want I right now, S is the safer bet.

[12squared]

You don't want I right now, S is the safer bet.

The dollar has been declining since early March. The relative strength of I (EFA) to S ($DWCPF) continues to increase.

EFA DWCPF 16Jan23-12Apr23.png

What makes you wary of I?

[jimcasada]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust the foreign banks situation right now. They don't have the same rules and regulations that we have here.

[bloobs]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust the foreign banks situation right now. They don't have the same rules and regulations that we have here.

I have several reasons (risk management related) as to why I am in I and not S (or C for that matter):

1. My chosen seasonal says so (SO THERE!)
2. Otherwise, as 12 alluded to, the dollar is on a weakening trend. There is clearly a major currency war between it and its competitors in the Eastern nations going on right now
3. Most TA indicators show non-S&P domestic stocks are WAY overbought, relative to the S&P and International.
4. Most small and regional banks in the news of late are in the S fund, none are in C or I
5. The I fund is composed of 900 large high quality multinational corporations in Europe and developed Asian nations, which includes MANY with major stakes in their US operations. Meaning if you wanna diversify your risk exposure--this is much better than C or S. These companies include Shell, BP, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Toyota, Airbus, ASML (the ONLY produces of IC wafers in the world!) and on an on.
6. The I has low exposure to real estate companies (< 3%). R.E. is the other likely catastrophe yet to happen....

[bloobs]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust the foreign banks situation right now. They don't have the same rules and regulations that we have here.

I have several reasons (risk management related) as to why I am in I and not S (or C for that matter):

1. My chosen seasonal says so (SO THERE!)
2. Otherwise, as 12 alluded to, the dollar is on a weakening trend. There is clearly a major currency war between it and its competitors in the Eastern nations going on right now
3. Most TA indicators show non-S&P domestic stocks are WAY overbought, relative to the S&P and International.
4. Most small and regional banks in the news of late are in the S fund, none are in C or I
5. The I fund is composed of 900 large high quality multinational corporations in Europe and developed Asian nations, which includes MANY with major stakes in their US operations. Meaning if you wanna diversify your risk exposure--this is much better than C or S. These companies include Shell, BP, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Toyota, Airbus, ASML (the ONLY produces of IC wafers in the world!) and on an on.
6. The I has low exposure to real estate companies (< 3%). R.E. is the other likely catastrophe yet to happen....

UPDATES

• Oops Jim, apparently I boo-booed #3 in my list above. S is less overbought than I!

• Anyways, the Fed explicitly stated yesterday that it believes a "mild recession" is coming THIS YEAR. Since Fed statements are always manipulative in nature, do you think it said this to:
  • Inject more fear in the market to make it go even lower sooner?
  • Realized (internally) that they overdid the hikes which set us up for a MAJOR recession, and the statement is a CYA move of them "warning us" beforehand

[12squared]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust the foreign banks situation right now. They don't have the same rules and regulations that we have here.

4. Most small and regional banks in the news of late are in the S fund, none are in C or I

A drop in regional American bank stocks was highly correlated with a drop in the S fund proxy in mid-March. The two then diverged for a couple of weeks. More recently their correlation has been on the rise.

KRE DWCPF 13Dec22-12Apr23+.png

[jimcasada]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't trust the foreign banks situation right now. They don't have the same rules and regulations that we have here.

I have several reasons (risk management related) as to why I am in I and not S (or C for that matter):

1. My chosen seasonal says so (SO THERE!)
2. Otherwise, as 12 alluded to, the dollar is on a weakening trend. There is clearly a major currency war between it and its competitors in the Eastern nations going on right now
3. Most TA indicators show non-S&P domestic stocks are WAY overbought, relative to the S&P and International.
4. Most small and regional banks in the news of late are in the S fund, none are in C or I
5. The I fund is composed of 900 large high quality multinational corporations in Europe and developed Asian nations, which includes MANY with major stakes in their US operations. Meaning if you wanna diversify your risk exposure--this is much better than C or S. These companies include Shell, BP, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Toyota, Airbus, ASML (the ONLY produces of IC wafers in the world!) and on an on.
6. The I has low exposure to real estate companies (< 3%). R.E. is the other likely catastrophe yet to happen....

UPDATES

• Oops Jim, apparently I boo-booed #3 in my list above. S is less overbought than I!

• Anyways, the Fed explicitly stated yesterday that it believes a "mild recession" is coming THIS YEAR. Since Fed statements are always manipulative in nature, do you think it said this to:
  • Inject more fear in the market to make it go even lower sooner?
  • Realized (internally) that they overdid the hikes which set us up for a MAJOR recession, and the statement is a CYA move of them "warning us" beforehand

I guess that the S fund does have more financial sector holdings than I was thinking it had, but still not a whole lot different than what's in I or C (11.3 to 12.5%, see following link). My strategy is probably quite a bit different from most folks on here. Over the past couple of years I have spent about 85% of my time in G, only to jump back in occasionally when think that I can pick up a lucky bounce, then it's usually back to G. I am retiring this June and I probably should just stay in G all the time, but I just can't resist the temptation to get back into one of the stock equity funds whenever I smell a bounce. To be safe, I probably should have gone back to G today to (with some of the big banks reporting tomorrow), but it's too late now. You all are getting me scared now. Thanks, Jim.
https://www.tspstrategies.com/fund-rela ... -holdings/

[Aitrus]

I don't recall who it was, but there was a forum member who posted his strategy years ago. As I recall, it basically boiled down to this:

- Keep an eye on the short-term trend. When it's down, don't go in. When it's turned upward, go in.
- Once you've earned 1-2% for the month, get out. This can take a day, or it can take a week, but don't get greedy. Once you've hit your mark, take your winnings and leave.
- In virtually all months you'll be able to earn at least 1%, and you'll hit 2% in most months as well. This gets you at least 12 - 24% per year, consistently.
- I don't recall what technical indicators he used, but I think he was a fan of Ira Epstein's stuff, which meant he was probably using Slow Stochastics and Bollinger Bands.

Again, I could be wrong on the details. But what I recall firmly was the earning 1-2% per month and calling it quits until the next month.

[12squared]

I am retiring this June and I probably should just stay in G all the time, but I just can't resist the temptation to get back into one of the stock equity funds whenever I smell a bounce.

Jim,
G fund isn't keeping pace with inflation. When do you plan to begin drawing down your TSP?

12²

[jimcasada]

I am retiring this June and I probably should just stay in G all the time, but I just can't resist the temptation to get back into one of the stock equity funds whenever I smell a bounce.

Jim,
G fund isn't keeping pace with inflation. When do you plan to begin drawing down your TSP?

12²

I have no plans on touching my TSP for at least a couple of years. I already have my full Navy retirement, VA, and Social Security (with 3 dependents) coming in. As these kids start falling off my SS, I might start tapping into my TSP. For now, I need to keep my reportable income down, to help with college financial aid. My TSP goal was to get to $500k before retiring. Now that made that goal some time ago, I feel that I can be a little braver with my TSP. Like today, I'm still in S when previously I would have jumped back to G by now. There, I'm giving out too much PPI, but that's my situation.

[bloobs]

... Social Security (with 3 dependents) coming in....

Wow I dont know anyone (lucky enough?) who receives this type of SS income.

[jimcasada]

All you need is still have kids under the age of 18 whenever you apply for your SS benefits (it's about an extra $10k/mo in my case). I got mine the old fashioned way, but maybe you can go adopt some?

[bloobs]

All you need is still have kids under the age of 18 whenever you apply for your SS benefits (it's about an extra $10k/mo in my case).

$120k in extra income a year for having 3 kids under 18?!?!?!?

This amount invested (529 or elsewhere) could 100% fund their private school tuitions. Who knew having kids later in life would pay off, the conventional wisdom was always the opposite.

[jimcasada]

All you need is still have kids under the age of 18 whenever you apply for your SS benefits (it's about an extra $10k/mo in my case).

$120k in extra income a year for having 3 kids under 18?!?!?!?

This amount invested (529 or elsewhere) could 100% fund their private school tuitions. Who knew having kids later in life would pay off, the conventional wisdom was always the opposite.

I got grandkids older than my kids (via different wife, of course).

[Midway]

Plus they will take care of you when you are old. Maybe.