If I could do it all over again…

General TSP Discussion.

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12squared
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If I could do it all over again…

Post by 12squared »

Image

It's that time once again to reflect on past decisions and resolve to make better choices.
If you could borrow a time machine, what would you have done differently with your TSP?
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

hamjam916
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Joined: Fri May 05, 2017 11:57 am

Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by hamjam916 »

Nothing, I don't think. Roughly followed 16922, but always kept between 30% to 40% in G. Ended up 15%. Probably do the same in 2024, except keep more in G since I'm close to retirement.

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jdoma
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by jdoma »

I would have started using this site in January 2003, the day after I started federal employment. My TSP balance would be a LOT bigger.

Bubba
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by Bubba »

jdoma wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 1:40 pm I would have started using this site in January 2003, the day after I started federal employment. My TSP balance would be a LOT bigger.
Nice! I started in 2003 too. I'm not sure if TSPCenter was alive and kicking back then, but if it was, then I wish I had found it too. I placed my investments on automatic for the first 14 years or so. I'm looking forward to a prosperous 2024 and beyond.

Oh and in regards to the OP, I wish I had taken more time at the beginning to focus on this. My focus was in the right place (family, work, etc.), but having some attention here would have been good too. Oh well, I've got 20 years to go and I'm hoping I can make up for the difference.

Thanks!

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jatelle
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by jatelle »

If I could do it all over again I would have paid more attention to Price Action and the charts and less on the news cycle.

The S&P Monthly chart is looking very bullish for 2024 with the MACD curving upwards as price heads towards the top of the channel. If price stays within the channel SPY could hit 550 (5600 SPX/ES) by the end of 2024: +15%.
Good luck to everyone in 2024!
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bamafamily
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by bamafamily »

Hey 12,
I like the Peabody, Sherman and Wayback Machine reference.
Brings back good memories....

If I had to do something over again, I would have stopped trying to find "the next best thing" and just went with what I had back on 12/26/2017.....
https://www.tspcenter.com/forums/viewto ... 628#p67628

oh well...can't go back now.....I retire in 12 days.....so I need to make better choices moving forward... :roll:
(won't be hard given my returns over the last 5 years) :(

Good Luck All!

Bama
Bama

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12squared
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by 12squared »

bamafamily wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 7:25 pm Hey 12,
I like the Peabody, Sherman and Wayback Machine reference.
I was wondering if anyone would recognize it. One of the more unusual cartoons of its era.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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bloobs
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by bloobs »

12squared wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:03 pm It's that time once again to reflect on past decisions and resolve to make better choices.
If you could borrow a time machine, what would you have done differently with your TSP?
Well, Einstein believed that while you could theoretically bend time through space, you cannot ever turn it back. But putting that aside, I wished I would have acted more and thought/dawdled less taken bigger risks early on.

PhilJohn
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by PhilJohn »

Excellent thread.

My first 4 years I only put in the 5% matching. I wish I would have found this place day #1. Better later than never though. I had an interesting conversation with someone in our HR. They recently told me that 40% of our employees dont even participate in the TSP matching. That blew my mind.

ProduceMan
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by ProduceMan »

Going back to day one of employment, I would’ve payroll contributed equally to L50, G, C, S, and I

Also, I would’ve just moved (100%) of my gains
(from the 5 funds mentioned)
Moneys’ Money Making Money (4M)

Bubba
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by Bubba »

ProduceMan wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 am Going back to day one of employment, I would’ve payroll contributed equally to L50, G, C, S, and I

Also, I would’ve just moved (100%) of my gains
(from the 5 funds mentioned)
I did this early on. I think I did something like 20% G, 20% F, 25% C, 25% S and 10% I. I then put it on autopilot from late 2003 through 2017. In thinking about this, I should have been MUCH more involved, but as explained above, family, moving and work took precedence. I think also not having a relative not sit down with me and explain the joys of compounding early on was not helpful. Having said that, I did put in 13% of my salary every year, so that worked well enough. Either way, this place would have helped my nest egg be much larger by now. Oh well, just like others here, I still have a while to go, so hopefully I can make up for lost time.

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TLuke
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by TLuke »

Like mentioned before, I should have been more proactive in learning about TSP and market investing. When I entered civil service in 2003 (post- military and now retired), there wasn’t advice given/available within my organization regarding TSP. You were on your own. I was risk-averse, so I just picked a Life Cycle fund matching my retirement age, maxed out contributions, and moved on with life. I could have been more aggressive leaning towards the C fund.

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12squared
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by 12squared »

ProduceMan wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:58 am Going back to day one of employment, I would’ve payroll contributed equally to L50, G, C, S, and I

Also, I would’ve just moved (100%) of my gains
(from the 5 funds mentioned)
I had my contributions (10% +%5 match) on autopilot for my initial 19 years of CS: 15% G, 15% F, 70% C. There was no S or I at the time. After 2015 I began moving most or all between funds, TSPcenter style, without much of a plan. I lagged the performance of my 15-15-70 split considerably for several years. In hindsight I should have split out the 70% C into S & I, or an L fund, while learning how to make decisions using my Fantasy account.
“The genius of investing is recognizing the direction of the trend – not catching the highs or the lows.”
- Dean Witter

"Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."
- Andrew Carnegie

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Aitrus
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by Aitrus »

I first started putting money from a small military paycheck into TSP in 2002, but left it mostly in G and F until 2006 based on the advice of a supervisor who was getting ready to retire. I went 50/50 C and F in 2007, got scared back to G in 2008 (the same year I started working in the Civil Service), and stayed there until 2011 when I discovered TSPCenter. The market correction of August 2011 got me to finally sit up and learn what investing was about, and I ended up dabbling in market timing for a while (I learned the wrong lessons). Then I found TSPCenter and dived deep into learning about a seasonal approach starting in 2012. I developed my Seasonal Musings from 2013 - 2014, and the rest has all been here.

I've been with a seasonal approach since 2014, and it's served me very well. It took me from 2002 - 2014 to reach $40k (of which $35k were my own contributions plus civil service matching). Since I started following seasonal with a passion in 2014, I crossed the $100k mark in late 2019, and the end of 2023 has me knocking on the door of $200k.

I have another decade and a half to go before retiring for good from the civil service, and I like what the future holds.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
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Scarfinger
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Re: If I could do it all over again…

Post by Scarfinger »

I didn't seriously start investing for retirement until I was hired by the VA in 2010 when I was 42 years old.

If I could do it all over again... I would have started investing back in high school. I have worked ever since the age of 14 but didn't think about investing until I was 40 yrs old. For the TSP, probably would have just left it in the C fund.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Paul Merriman 2 fund strat: (age - 25) x2.5 = TDF + balance into S fund or variation of

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Fund Prices2024-11-12

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.65 0.05% 3.80%
F $19.52 -0.71% 1.55%
C $94.36 -0.19% 26.88%
S $94.25 0.53% 22.25%
I $42.75 -1.60% 6.40%
L2070 $10.63 -0.58% 6.31%
L2065 $17.94 -0.58% 18.67%
L2060 $17.94 -0.58% 18.67%
L2055 $17.95 -0.58% 18.68%
L2050 $35.47 -0.52% 15.88%
L2045 $16.11 -0.49% 15.12%
L2040 $58.57 -0.46% 14.38%
L2035 $15.39 -0.42% 13.52%
L2030 $50.96 -0.37% 12.66%
L2025 $13.79 -0.19% 8.54%
Linc $26.78 -0.16% 7.51%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".