TSP Investment strategy

[Bubba]

Dear all,

So, I'm curious to how/what you do for your investment strategy with your TSP. What I'm not asking is your TSPCalc number or whatever. What I am asking is how you do it?

For example, for me, I try to keep about 50% always in the market (unless its a midterm...then it's a toss up) and the other 50% I use a TSPCalc strategy (which this year the strat has been awful...but I don't religiously stick to it). The 50% that's always in the market, I try to keep in C or S (depending on the market cycle and time of the year). The strategy I spend every Nov/Dec perfecting and reviewing (apparently it's not always going that well!).

What are others doing?

Thanks to all!

Best,

Bubba

[bloobs]

I try to keep about 50% always in the market (unless its a midterm...then it's a toss up) and the other 50% I use a TSPCalc strategy

Funny, I was just contemplating doing just this mix of 50% all-in and 50% seasonal beginning next year. I have been 100% in following some seasonal strategy for the past 5 yrs and while this has not beaten a 100% all-in C allocation (so far) it handily outperforms a 100% S or I or F or G allocation. I like to think that since the strats are, at worse, only 60% invested in CSI, they reduce exposure to downside risk on a day to day basis....maybe.

[Bubba]

I try to keep about 50% always in the market (unless its a midterm...then it's a toss up) and the other 50% I use a TSPCalc strategy

Funny, I was just contemplating doing just this mix of 50% all-in and 50% seasonal beginning next year. I have been 100% in following some seasonal strategy for the past 5 yrs and while this has not beaten a 100% all-in C allocation (so far) it handily outperforms a 100% S or I or F or G allocation. I like to think that since the strats are, at worse, only 60% invested in CSI, they reduce exposure to downside risk on a day to day basis....maybe.

Yeah, the primary reason is because we're in a late cycle situation now. The C Fund tends to outperform in that period...although after our upcoming recession I'm expecting the S to be a killer for a couple of years.

In any case, I've spent countless hours developing (in my opinion) amazing strats only to find things going "different" that year. I've tried it all. I've realized that through all my tries that I've been leaving money on the table. So, the 50% is the best strat for me.

Having said that, I am often very wary of September no matter what year (except for presidential years) and so I play with that handily https://jayonthemarkets.com/2018/08/28/ ... -strategy/.

Glad to see that I'm not the only one here. Good luck!

[12squared]

I try to keep about 50% always in the market (unless its a midterm...then it's a toss up) and the other 50% I use a TSPCalc strategy

Having said that, I am often very wary of September no matter what year (except for presidential years) and so I play with that handily https://jayonthemarkets.com/2018/08/28/ ... -strategy/.

30 days has September.
Sell at the beginning.
Buy at the ender.

[mjedlin66]

SD is pretty much useless. I intend to replace it with median and also “beats C fund” measured as a percentage of months that beat the C fund historically.

[Bubba]

SD is pretty much useless. I intend to replace it with median and also “beats C fund” measured as a percentage of months that beat the C fund historically.

Ouch. I use SD enormously, so I would hope you would just "add to" instead of removing that function. It's super helpful for me to measure sortino and sharpe.

[md2018]

My funds are split between TSP and Vanguard, with about 35% in VG and 65% in TSP. The total over 7 figures. In VG I am more conservative with 70 % in cash and bond or balanced funds and 30% equities. It’s a mix of IRA’s and taxable accounts. I am just the opposite in TSP with 100% in C and S and I usually follow more of a seasonal approach. I have actually done better with the VG approach. I lost a lot 2022 in TSP S Fund and still recovering but in VG I had cash available to buy low in the equity accounts and took the profit this year moving that amount back to cash. I had to pay taxes on that but adding an extra $20,000 annually in dividends and earnings to my pension. I don’t really need my TSP and plan to start withdrawing RMD’s in 10 years.

[bloobs]

SD is pretty much useless. I intend to replace it with median and also “beats C fund” measured as a percentage of months that beat the C fund historically.

My understanding is that the median ( is a better indicator in samples that are not normally distributed (bell-shaped).

Having said that, I'm too busy/lazy to see which shape each strat's 20-year (2004-2024) data samples' distribution takes after.

If these are indeed skewed, then you could use percentiles as the replacement for standard deviations values.

[TopNotch]

Next year, I'm thinking of rolling over 25% of our TSP balance to an iRA, and only buying JEPQ for the plus 9% dividend with that rollover. Keeping the rest in TSP in the C fund.

[gbnooks207]

I use in the “Sort & Filter” around 2 the 3 times a year in the TSPCenter site to see what pops up.

The most important filter to me “Start Year 2013 / End Year 2024 (using the present year) – reason being, I think that’s when people started moving away from monthly Seasonal models to using more multiple moves in a month (TSPCenter models). If you want to get the best TSP Center models you should be using the years in which people started using TSPCenter models. I also am not a big fan of low SD. The other filters I use are;
SD – either 30, 25, or 20
# of IFTs – either 35 or 30
CSI – Max 51
After you get the list of results from the filters, look for items that matter most to you … lower SD, lower # of IFTs, etc

[bloobs]

Next year, I'm thinking of rolling over 25% of our TSP balance to an iRA, and only buying JEPQ for the plus 9% dividend with that rollover. Keeping the rest in TSP in the C fund.

Top - Not sure how freely JEPQ cycles in/out of its holdings but it is overweight presently with red hot megacaps (mag7). Do you think it can sustain this performance past the late cycle period we're in right now when the mag7 starts falling out of favor?

[mjedlin66]

Let me know when the ultra large caps “magnificent 7” start falling out of favor. I remember when they were still called FAANG stocks 10 years ago. Those five stocks have continued to kick ass.

10 year returns:
Facebook (Meta) 563%
Amazon 983%
Apple 886%
Netflix 928%
Google (Alphabet) 426%

S&P 500(SPY) 325%
Nasdaq 100: 558%

Equal weighting of the five FAANG stocks would yield a 10 year return of 757%

The magnificent 7 add these:
Microsoft 934%
Tesla 1,110%
Nvidia 22,610%

Disclaimer: these returns did not use exactly the same dates. I just googled “ticker 10 year total return” and snagged the first number I saw.

[94aggie]

Did TSP switch over to the new I Fund? TSPCenter live seems to be tracking the new I fund.

[TopNotch]

Hey bloobs, I didn't consider sustained performance of JEPQ, but I like Matt's answer.

Actually I want to use JEPQ as a replacement for the G fund. IMO the G fund is only good for parking your money waiting for better opportunities, or for risk-adverse investors. JEPQ uses out of the money call options to generate income and provide downside protection. It pays a monthly dividend. I don't pretend to know all of the intricate details of JEPQ, but it works well for me in my cash brokerage account.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm ... O-JEPQ.pdf

[Aitrus]

Did TSP switch over to the new I Fund? TSPCenter live seems to be tracking the new I fund.

Yes to both.