September - October seasonality

[Bubba]

Another thought is to consider the years of returns. I like 85660 (which I'm assuming is your "permanent" pick??). A different option would be to go by presidential years. 85660 has a leg up on all of them with the exception of midterm years. So, maybe 85660 in all years, midterms 98482?

More work would be to compare midterm years to each other month by month and see which one's strongest and then go from there.

There's several I watch: 85660, 119415, 130870, 163463, 186197. They all follow the same general cycle, with minor differences in spots: G vs F when stocks are bad, using I for a few more or less days in April, that sort of thing.

The first four are the most similar, with 186197 being the one with the most variation from the others. The '04-'23 numbers are pretty good, with 186197 having a SD down in your comfort zone, but it's doing poorly this year.

https://tspcalc.com/seasonal.php?ID=856 ... ears=04-23

It's not that I follow any specific one perfectly, more like I follow a group that have a similar pattern, and use the small differences in changes to give me the most likely options when it comes time to make a decision in conjunction with whatever trend the market is in at the moment.

Ex 1: They all go to S for three days in the middle of October and then to C for the rest of the month? Got it, that's what I'm doing without hesitation.

Ex 2: Back half of July is a mishmash of F / G / I? Well, I guess I have some careful thinking to do, but I'm probably leaning towards F since that's what most of them do (and G for the final couple of days).

Nice! I also see that your selections for the past 2 years have gone really well. Good going.

[12squared]

[Bubba]

Thanks!

[Scarfinger]

So these moves, like Novembers, could be either up... or down 2.5%.

[12squared]

So these moves, like Novembers, could be either up... or down 2.5%.

That's how I interpret it.

[Bubba]

On 2nd thought, is there a link that gets updated with this info??? I think it would be great to keep up to date with this stuff and see how it aligns with our TSPCalc.

As a side note (and word of caution), I did a study a while back. The key to seeing if November (of an election year) is going to be a good month is by the election's day after. Specifically, if the day after the election ends in green, then the rest of the month follows well. If it goes down, then the best thing you can do is sit it out for the month. I studied this from the 1970s through 2020. Naturally, I didn't check before so I could be wrong, but a 50 year history is pretty decent for me.