Trump 2.0

[PhilJohn]

Thats why we like our Master Agreements.

[Bubba]

Thats why we like our Master Agreements.

I'm expecting that to not exist anymore...soon (https://www.govexec.com/management/2024 ... ce/400870/).

In terms of tariffs...the government will make money no matter what happens. If they tax our income or they tax us via tariffs, either way we pay. Usually, tariffs are being paid more by the lower and middle classes https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/t ... de-expert/.

Also, the cost of things will accelerate quite a bit:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/imag ... kMXCJ4Rg&s

and here

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-con ... rvices.jpg

Notice that all the fun stuff we buy will be MUCH more expensive.

Naturally, who knows what'll really happen. I'm expecting Trump 2.0 to be like 1.0. Totally unexpected and unhinged. We'll see where that goes...

Edit: I forgot to mention, now that many companies in the SP500 get their revenues from outside the US too (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visual ... %20average.), I'm expecting big hits on their income too. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[renny443]

Yeah, having a solid Master Agreement definitely makes things clearer and easier to manage in the long run.

[PhilJohn]

No one is taking any master agreement away. No one will force you work an 80 hour work week w/o overtime. I think a lot of the bureaucrats might be a little nervous, but it’s mostly going to be business as usual for most. Just keep putting in your 20% and sit back and watch the gains like last time.

[Bubba]

No one is taking any master agreement away. No one will force you work an 80 hour work week w/o overtime. I think a lot of the bureaucrats might be a little nervous, but it’s mostly going to be business as usual for most. Just keep putting in your 20% and sit back and watch the gains like last time.

I'm not sure what agency you work for (meant rhetorical), but already under 1.0 a "sister group" within our agency received the "de Vos" treatment where their master agreement was shoved aside and a new "agreement" was given to them by the head of that agency. I'm being told by friends at the Pentagon that this treatment is very likely to return. Here's a recent example of the upcoming fear https://apnews.com/article/freight-rail ... 0282b2c706. I do surely hope that things will be ok...but I am sure that's not going to be the case.

Either way, I'll happily take 20% any day.

[PhilJohn]

That is interesting,. When did it take place?

We don't really know what the future holds either way. I think the Federal Government is going to get trimmed drastically, but maybe that needs to happen. Unfortunately, we do have corruption/ waste, and the people have seen it. But that is for greater minds than myself to decide.

[Bubba]

That is interesting,. When did it take place?

We don't really know what the future holds either way. I think the Federal Government is going to get trimmed drastically, but maybe that needs to happen. Unfortunately, we do have corruption/ waste, and the people have seen it. But that is for greater minds than myself to decide.

This was in 2018/19.

There's always waste and abuse everywhere. There's also waste within my organization. I don't trust people that only see that. I trust people within an organization to make a concerted and informed decision. People from the outside don't see (nor often care) about the impact of cuts.

As you said, we'll see how it goes. I have no control at this point. it is what it is.

[PhilJohn]

I don't trust people in my organization. I should probably move to yours lol.

[Bubba]

As a federal employee, it's not necessary "red alert" status, but good to know what's happening in the background. I highly recommend you reading this article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ment-cuts/

What really stood out to me was the 88%. Wow!

[Marvin]

Thanks for sharing Bubba. I found the following quote in the article interesting:

"They wrote that “existing laws” can give federal employees “incentives for early retirement” and voluntary severance payments to “facilitate a graceful exit.”


I doubt they would tamper with the RIF laws so even if they are somewhat successful it will take several years to work through the process, especially in the larger agencies.

[Bubba]

Thanks for sharing Bubba. I found the following quote in the article interesting:

"They wrote that “existing laws” can give federal employees “incentives for early retirement” and voluntary severance payments to “facilitate a graceful exit.”


I doubt they would tamper with the RIF laws so even if they are somewhat successful it will take several years to work through the process, especially in the larger agencies.

That's my hope, but I've read several articles where different incoming members speak about 2 years (I think Musk said the same). I think they're expecting a big loss for the midterms, which would certainly hurt their efforts. If that's so, then they're going to push as much as possible, as quickly as possible.

We'll see what happens. As always, I'm expecting the worst and hoping for the best...

[PhilJohn]

“incentives for early retirement”.

That is interesting, I'm wondering what that would look like.

[jimcasada]

This morning I was watching somebody on CNBC comparing now to how markets reacted to Trump's first round of tariffs started to take effect, and how foreign markets surged after that. So, I went back on here to this time frame in 2016 to look back at how our I-fund reacted (see chart below).

PS: Keep in mind that in the first time around, Trump had to fight a divided congress for several months to get his tariffs going, while this time he says he plans to do this ASAP.

[jimcasada]

[Bubba]

Interesting. Also, last time around stocks in alternative energies surged unlike oil (etc.). I have a feeling this time around, however, things are going to be different. Last time Trump received an excellent economy in top shape, many years after the last crisis. This time we're not much after COVID and the ensuing high inflation. I'm in the camp of expecting something akin to 1974/5 or perhaps 2001 to 2003...but as always hoping for the best. That's why I was really hoping to see how the strats would have performed in the 2000 to 2003 period.

Having said that, i did ask the TSP folks to give me the data on the S Fund (DWCPF). So far I've had no response. All others (SPX, EAFE, etc.) I can find without much hassle.