Tariffs ?should I move?

[bdrieck]

sitting in G my strategy says to move into I fund this morning. No telling what Trump will say.. but wondering the strategies are great but haven't been in this political climate before.

[Horaenaut]

I'm not a seasonal strategy guy, but I is down today. No reason not to go into I unless you think there is going to be a big drawback from international growth stocks (lots of investment ran there in anticipation of US recession) or unless you think there will be a global recession (those usually hit internationals harder than the US). When does your strat have you coming back out of I and into what?

[Scarfinger]

Looks like the bottom is falling out tomorrow, futures down 3%? Personally, I am holding steady.

Bring on the pain. Test my resolve.

[jimcasada]

I'm sticking with G fund. I honestly think that we are heading for an actual recession now (I've lived through a few of those already). The last few years, the markets have basicaly skyrocket on speculation that hasn't been seen since the roaring 1920's (and that didn't end well, with stock averages dropping over 90% before it was over). Since 2009 we haven't even had even a real 10%+ correction, until recently. I think we're really just overdue.

[Bubba]

I'm sticking with G fund. I honestly think that we are heading for an actual recession now (I've lived through a few of those already). The last few years, the markets have basicaly skyrocket on speculation that hasn't been seen since the roaring 1920's (and that didn't end well, with stock averages dropping over 90% before it was over). Since 2009 we haven't even had even a real 10%+ correction, until recently. I think we're really just overdue.

All of my indicators have been screaming a big drop this year and even bigger next year. Perhaps by 2027 things will get a bit better. We'll see.

[kilogram]

I'm sticking with G fund. I honestly think that we are heading for an actual recession now (I've lived through a few of those already). The last few years, the markets have basicaly skyrocket on speculation that hasn't been seen since the roaring 1920's (and that didn't end well, with stock averages dropping over 90% before it was over). Since 2009 we haven't even had even a real 10%+ correction, until recently. I think we're really just overdue.

What happened to sticking with the G? I was thinking of making the same move, you're braver than me.

[jimcasada]

It was a hasty last minute decision. That sudden 6% drop in S seemed like a market overreaction to me, but this morning it looks like trying to catch a falling knife. I still think a recession is coming, just hoping for a quick bounce for now.

[VJoe571]

It looks like G or F fund is the place to be right now.
What do you think?

[mrwawa]

I have stuck with my seasonal strategy because I said "don't let emotions drive your decisions". But I wish in retrospect I had done just that! Knew this was coming, like everyone else, and just watched it happen. Live and learn

[wingchaser]

March 25th was the Bail Point, always seem to be a Day Late & a Dollar Short...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[Horaenaut]

It was a hasty last minute decision. That sudden 6% drop in S seemed like a market overreaction to me, but this morning it looks like trying to catch a falling knife. I still think a recession is coming, just hoping for a quick bounce for now.

Felt the same way and did the same thing in my non-TSP investments. Hoping for that pre-recession bounce

[IRQVET]

My thoughts, not saying I’m right, but unless your close to retirement; you're going to be buying shares on the cheap moving forward as the market dips. I’m getting killed right now in the C-Fund, but I’m a lifetime away from drawing, the market is over correcting/ over reacting.. Gotta look at the long game IMHO and ride this out . . . without argument, market correction is coming as the market likes predictability and this administrations plans are not anything close to predictable at the moment.

[harpole]

I will say the market was going to do this regardless of what administration is in office. The market has been on a tear for many years; super inflated. Trump has been talking of tariffs for years; all the "smart money people", economists, huge companies, etc; have had plenty of time to have a plan. This is all planned; the market must have "something to blame" a correction/crash on; always... It's never the "smart money/hedge funds" fault. Fear will now be the hedge funds (and media's) tool to get richer. When the covid crash hit; I was caught up in the fear and missed out on a massive swing to the upside. The swing up was fast; so hopefully I don't miss the boat this time around.

[Aitrus]

I will say the market was going to do this regardless of what administration is in office. The market has been on a tear for many years; super inflated. Trump has been talking of tariffs for years; all the "smart money people", economists, huge companies, etc; have had plenty of time to have a plan. This is all planned; the market must have "something to blame" a correction/crash on; always... It's never the "smart money/hedge funds" fault. Fear will now be the hedge funds (and media's) tool to get richer. When the covid crash hit; I was caught up in the fear and missed out on a massive swing to the upside. The swing up was fast; so hopefully I don't miss the boat this time around.

This right here is exactly right. Perspective is key.

And in the meantime, stocks are on sale, so whether someone moves G-fund money into the market at lower prices, or just keeps on with the paycheck contributions - it buys more shares that will grow faster when the recovery comes in due course.

And if the recovery doesn't come for several years (or at all), well, we'll all have much bigger problems to worry about.

[Bubba]

I will say the market was going to do this regardless of what administration is in office. The market has been on a tear for many years; super inflated. Trump has been talking of tariffs for years; all the "smart money people", economists, huge companies, etc; have had plenty of time to have a plan. This is all planned; the market must have "something to blame" a correction/crash on; always... It's never the "smart money/hedge funds" fault. Fear will now be the hedge funds (and media's) tool to get richer. When the covid crash hit; I was caught up in the fear and missed out on a massive swing to the upside. The swing up was fast; so hopefully I don't miss the boat this time around.

Yeah, I was ready this time and in 2020. The only issue I had in 2020 is I waited for the much commented "2nd retest of the lows." Those never came.

I just jumped in this past Friday after all my indicators told me March would suck (I'm surprised April has been worse). In any case, fingers crossed that it goes up very soon again. I would hate to catch a falling knife, but I'm determined not to do another 2020 where I have like 100% in G and then i don't jump in early enough for all the 'lovin.