Tariffs ?should I move?

[wingchaser]

March 25th was the Bail Point, always seem to be a Day Late & a Dollar Short...

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

BUY LOW would truly be @ play (here), what is concernin', is the extent of the devastation that may incur in the interim. With the last three (3) "Major" Corrections:

Black Monday 10 Mar 2000 Dot-Com Bubble
United States bear market of 2007–2009
(Financial Crisis - Banking) 11 Oct 2007 Banking Crisis
2020 stock market crash 24 Feb 2020 COVID Crisis

what I would say to anyone who would listen, is that you don't have to ride this all the way down, "You can Stop the Bleeding @ any time". A Correction of 40% takes a 80% resurgence to get back to your Break-Even point. This can sometimes take anywhere between 1-3 years.

Best of Luck (everyone) in all you choose to endeavor!!!

[Bubba]

I will say the market was going to do this regardless of what administration is in office. The market has been on a tear for many years; super inflated. Trump has been talking of tariffs for years; all the "smart money people", economists, huge companies, etc; have had plenty of time to have a plan. This is all planned; the market must have "something to blame" a correction/crash on; always... It's never the "smart money/hedge funds" fault. Fear will now be the hedge funds (and media's) tool to get richer. When the covid crash hit; I was caught up in the fear and missed out on a massive swing to the upside. The swing up was fast; so hopefully I don't miss the boat this time around.

By the way, while I do agree that the market has been overbought, this whole mess is definitely man made. Yes, there was a correction due (I think that was March). What's happened the past few days is entirely related to the craziness with the tariffs. That to me is undoubtable. If you have any questions about it, look at today's market action. We start severely in the red, then a rumor spreads on social media that there'll be a 90 days pause with the tariffs. Then, the White House responds by saying they know nothing about 90 days. Back in red.

[TLuke]

I had a queasy, nauseous feeling in mid 2022 and moved my and the wife’s TSP retirement $$$ into the G fund. Just felt the market was too hot and not making sense. OTOH, I’ve left our brokerage account alone, but have taken a 7% haircut so far this year. No big deal as I see it. Whenever the tariff hissy fit is over, things will likely rebound. Off to get PO’d and watch “The Big Short” for the umpteenth time.

[Bubba823]

I’ve seen a lot of posts recently expressing fear among those about to retire. As I was preparing for my retirement a couple of years ago, I moved most of my TSP funds over to my IRA's. Since then, my IRA accounts have outperformed the TSP C-fund. When I reached an all-time high in my portfolio last December, I moved roughly 5 years of income money into my IRA settlement fund. Unlike the TSP, I can withdraw from my IRA settlement fund without touching my equities investments. This will allow me to weather the type of market volatility we're now experiencing. It’s just a good feeling going into retirement knowing I have roughly 5 years of income money on the sideline if needed and I don't need to pull from my investments that are down 20% or more. December 31, 2025 can’t come soon enough…..267 days and counting.

[Bubba]

I’ve seen a lot of posts recently expressing fear among those about to retire. As I was preparing for my retirement a couple of years ago, I moved most of my TSP funds over to my IRA's. Since then, my IRA accounts have outperformed the TSP C-fund. When I reached an all-time high in my portfolio last December, I moved roughly 5 years of income money into my IRA settlement fund. Unlike the TSP, I can withdraw from my IRA settlement fund without touching my equities investments. This will allow me to weather the type of market volatility we're now experiencing. It’s just a good feeling going into retirement knowing I have roughly 5 years of income money on the sideline if needed and I don't need to pull from my investments that are down 20% or more. December 31, 2025 can’t come soon enough…..267 days and counting.

Nice!

It seems like the next few years are going to be a rough ride. My own indicators say this year and next year will suck. Afterwards, we should have a few years of respite. Do be mindful that 2029 is coming though! That'll be the next year within the 7 year cycle. Those years typically suck. Check it out, 2022, 2015, 2008 and so on. Fun stuff! Here's an article on that info https://blog.commonwealth.com/independe ... al-markets.

[kilogram]

Hats off to whoever stayed in the S fund. I'm looking at you Wingchaser

[flaps]

Why didn't I fund jump up with C and S funds when the announcement was made?

[jimcasada]

That will probably be tomorrow, since almost all the I funds markets were already closed by the time of the latest tariff delay announcement. It was also too late for any of us to switch funds to be effective by tomorrow. I won't recommend doing that anyway, considering how quickly things can change on even just a rumor.

[jimcasada]

Why didn't I fund jump up with C and S funds when the announcement was made?

That will probably be tomorrow, since almost all the I funds markets were already closed by the time of the latest tariff delay announcement. It was also too late for any of us to switch funds to be effective by tomorrow. I won't recommend doing that anyway, considering how quickly things can change on even just a rumor.

[jimcasada]

I'm sticking with G fund. I honestly think that we are heading for an actual recession now (I've lived through a few of those already). The last few years, the markets have basicaly skyrocket on speculation that hasn't been seen since the roaring 1920's (and that didn't end well, with stock averages dropping over 90% before it was over). Since 2009 we haven't even had even a real 10%+ correction, until recently. I think we're really just overdue.

What happened to sticking with the G? I was thinking of making the same move, you're braver than me.

I feel somewhat redeemed now. Today's jump got me back in the top 10, but the question now is, should I go back to the safety of G or ride it out in S? I only have one more IFT I can use until May. Pre-market is looking good right now, but that could change pretty quick now of days.

[Bubba]

I'm sticking with G fund. I honestly think that we are heading for an actual recession now (I've lived through a few of those already). The last few years, the markets have basicaly skyrocket on speculation that hasn't been seen since the roaring 1920's (and that didn't end well, with stock averages dropping over 90% before it was over). Since 2009 we haven't even had even a real 10%+ correction, until recently. I think we're really just overdue.

What happened to sticking with the G? I was thinking of making the same move, you're braver than me.

I feel somewhat redeemed now. Today's jump got me back in the top 10, but the question now is, should I go back to the safety of G or ride it out in S? I only have one more IFT I can use until May. Pre-market is looking good right now, but that could change pretty quick now of days.

I think we'll slowly go up from here through the middle of May. Then things will get queasy again. Good luck!

[olijoel]

What happened to sticking with the G? I was thinking of making the same move, you're braver than me.

I feel somewhat redeemed now. Today's jump got me back in the top 10, but the question now is, should I go back to the safety of G or ride it out in S? I only have one more IFT I can use until May. Pre-market is looking good right now, but that could change pretty quick now of days.

I think we'll slowly go up from here through the middle of May. Then things will get queasy again. Good luck!

Wow, that +10% was crazy! Congrats to @jimcasada! Despite being at -2.08, I still intend to stick to my seasonal plan. Let’s see how it goes!

[Aitrus]

While the 10% up was great to see, I would advise caution. Best explanation I've read on it:

"The S&P 500 Index closed higher by 9.52%, recording the 11th strongest single session return in the past 100 years. Back in 2008, amidst the slide into the Great Financial Crisis, the benchmark achieved two instances of 10%+ single session returns, but, while they stalled the short-term slide, they didn’t bring a halt to the intermediate-term decline as traders sold into the recovery to take down overall portfolio risk. This is likely the outcome that will be seen in the market this time around, as well. Prior to the days leading into the Great Financial Crisis, you would have to look back to the 1930’s amidst the onset of the depression and then the start of World War 2 to see other similar single session gyrations as what was recorded on Wednesday. Obviously, the precedent is not desired."

Source: https://equityclock.com/2025/04/09/stoc ... l-10-2025/

[Optimus187]

Dollar dxy is the lowest its been in a year im keeping my eye on the I.

[Bubba]

Dollar dxy is the lowest its been in a year im keeping my eye on the I.

Yeah, I read that people are selling Dollars all around the world. This might be the time to be in the I fund. Do remember that this time it also includes emerging markets, which makes the impact of Dollar selling more acute.