MARKET CRASH

[Aitrus]

Wind,

I posted an answer in the I Fund focused thread. Short version: it's fair value pricing.

[jimcasada]

Interesting related video I ran across today:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKM ... 8398810200

[IRQVET]

We're going to be trading sideways for a while IMHO. Too much turbulence going on right now with world events and de-dollarorization. We are living in interesting times, and the market carves stability in order to grow. . .

[VAmanBulls]

I tend to think we will be trending downways, not sideways for a while. The market was getting 'sick' even before this Iran thing. If the Iran thing is over tomorrow, we'll get a rally for sure, but I still think the Bear is here to stay for a bit. I do think we'll see some Bear market relief rallies at key support levels on the way down, and some will be playable (lasting days or weeks), but you risk getting stuck if you go in with too high of a percentage. If a major head and shoulders pattern forms with the April low or close to it being the end of the right neckline, there is a ways to go down before a significant right shoulder rally. I'm comfortable staying out of this mess for now. Makes more sense to put everything on black in Vegas, at this time. But there will be a time to move in. You can't avoid all risk. But too many indicators are lining up right now, painting a bad picture.

[VAmanBulls]

For those who have side accounts, I'm taking a beating with META right now. I'm going to ride that out, really have no choice at this point. I did buy into liq natural gas and energy about three weeks ago and that has been doing great (LNG and VDE). Will be looking to scale those back before long. When things settle down, I will be adding strong to NVDA, SNDK, MPWR, ASML and MU. What are you watching? Best of luck.

[Bubba]

For those who have side accounts, I'm taking a beating with META right now. I'm going to ride that out, really have no choice at this point. I did buy into liq natural gas and energy about three weeks ago and that has been doing great (LNG and VDE). Will be looking to scale those back before long. When things settle down, I will be adding strong to NVDA, SNDK, MPWR, ASML and MU. What are you watching? Best of luck.

Here's a terrible story about LNG. According to my research, I had to buy it on the 1st of January and should have sold it in the middle of February. I did just that and made about a 13% return. I was pleased because that's pretty much equal to what you get investing in the SPX on average for a whole year. After selling, I think it was 2 to 5 days later that we got into the Iran "non-war" war. Since then LNG has been on a rocket ship higher. I know you have to trust your process, but in just looking today...I would have been up by over 50%. Sad story? I still made something...just not 50% something.

[jimcasada]

I think that the markets are all dropping yesterday & today, mostly in anticipation of Trump launching another major attack on Iran some time after the markets close later today. The pattern seems to be is that he always does this shit mainly starting on Friday nights, hoping the markets will forget about it by Monday morning, but now the markets have caught on to this pattern.

[VAmanBulls]

The Administration's anticipated moves plays a large part into this. But, but, we now have to track inflation and rates. This is going to be something the Administration will struggle with. Not trying to get political. Word now is the Fed may actually raise rates due to the now anticipated inflation rise. The market has been pricing in for rate cuts the last few months. The readjustment is playing into this sell-off. I feel if the market dips too low, the Fed will then panic, and do jumbo rate cuts, but too late. I expect those large rate cuts will produce the right shoulder, large rally which I will be looking for. I plan to go in hard at that point, but then start scaling back as the RS is forming because I think it will drop again. I kind of hope I'm wrong because this will be bad for the economy, people will get hurt with this scenario. But that said, it could be an incredible opportunity if your heavy cash that you don't see very often. No one has a crystal ball but we do have charts, history, and indicators. Strap in.

[Wind]

There is a strategy in blackjack which includes card counting.

The player/card-counter doesn't know what will be dealt on the next hand and so doesn't 'bet it all'. The successful card counter can determine when odds are slightly better than even, or relatively slightly worse. The strategy is to stay at the table and bet/risk more when odds are favorable, risk less when they're not.

The strait being closed seems to create bad conditions for markets. When the strait opens should be relatively better. fwiw - creating tariffs/tariff amounts should have been fairly straightforward,...

[VAmanBulls]

Quick update. Nothing has changed. View my previous posts. We not in a pull-back, not in a correction, we are in the process of a crash. 5th straight loosing week. 10 year yield running up. Dollar running up. The possible small head and shoulders (which I said I was not going to play) never really formed. The 'double top' appears to be confirmed. This increases the chances of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern forming. View the 2022 top and what happened after. That is the pattern we are now in. May see a decent bounce around 6150 to 6250 range. Might be playable but don't stay in long if it gets back up near the 50 week moving avg. I expect further selling will follow then down to as low as 5300 before a significant Bear Rally. Key word, Bear. Keep an eye out for the Fed doing emergency cuts. This should be a good sign to play a larger, safer rebound. Not recommendations, just my opinion. Good luck.

[VAmanBulls]

A short term bottom may be playable as soon as this week for those that don't mind a little educated risk. Got my eyes peeled. Won't be an all-in thing and it won't be long but may play some chips.

[VAmanBulls]

Lower lows and lower highs seems to be the pattern. Extremely difficult to TSP trade right now. I continue to remain cautious, in cash, waiting for a true bottom to form. But I still hold that we have better chances to drop more that bull up much in the near future. Good luck all.

[Bubba]

Quick update. Nothing has changed. View my previous posts. We not in a pull-back, not in a correction, we are in the process of a crash. 5th straight loosing week. 10 year yield running up. Dollar running up. The possible small head and shoulders (which I said I was not going to play) never really formed. The 'double top' appears to be confirmed. This increases the chances of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern forming. View the 2022 top and what happened after. That is the pattern we are now in. May see a decent bounce around 6150 to 6250 range. Might be playable but don't stay in long if it gets back up near the 50 week moving avg. I expect further selling will follow then down to as low as 5300 before a significant Bear Rally. Key word, Bear. Keep an eye out for the Fed doing emergency cuts. This should be a good sign to play a larger, safer rebound. Not recommendations, just my opinion. Good luck.

In gaming this out with Gemini (so caveat emptor!) we gamed this drop out all the way until late 2028. I.e. according to some of my work, we will stop our drop around October and then go up until July of 2027. Then down again until the middle/late 2028. Then we'll have a real rally. Obviously who knows, but that's what I see happening (at present). Either way, I'll continue with my strategy...but with only like 10% or 20% in market until we hit a temporary bottom. Good luck to all!

[Optimus187]

Since I began investing in TSP I always followed the dollar is weak so I fund will be strong. I made the move to the I ever since DXY took a dive. Look at the 3 year graph and you’ll see that the dollar still far from where it was . Before the “war”, I was at a 42% rate of return adding last year and this year’s first two months. Just food for thought.

[evilanne]

Good Day today!