What is the deal man?

[VAmanBulls]

So frustrating when small caps is busting out, S&P strong all day and with 30 minutes left, all the gains wiped out. I can't find the leak. Mortgage applications soar, the Fed is pumping money still, CPI looked good, some good earnings reports today and finally ink on the China deal. What the heck?

Ok, just looked and we had a positive finish, but I still hate that late day sell-off stuff. Not cool.

[userque]

So frustrating when small caps is busting out, S&P strong all day and with 30 minutes left, all the gains wiped out. I can't find the leak. Mortgage applications soar, the Fed is pumping money still, CPI looked good, some good earnings reports today and finally ink on the China deal. What the heck?

CNBC implies that it's the trade deal stuff...

Stocks touch record highs before giving up most of those gains into the close
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/dow-fut ... esday.html

[crondanet5]

The last half hour is when the real investors trade. It goes into afterhours before stock prices settle. Never count your chickens until the markets settle.


another point of information is this is an options expiration week. Prices move erratically.

[searight]

Stocks went up with anticipation of the trade deal being signed, once it is signed people "sell the event".

[bloobs]

Stocks went up with anticipation of the trade deal being signed, once it is signed people "sell the event".

Yup, phase 1 trade deal (FWIW) and big bank earning expectations realized in the past 2 days were, as they say, "priced in" during the last couple weeks' action--in order to "sell the news". Standard institutional practice.

What isn't standard is the 4 months and counting quantitative easing of over $600 Billion--that is the THE major factor as to why the C Fund (based on the S&P 500 Index) has melted up since September.

[TSP Jedi]

IWM and DJT not at all time highs..... looking for a top

[bloobs]

IWM and DJT not at all time highs..... looking for a top

DO PLEASE LET US KNOW WHEN THOSE THRESHOLDS ARE MET. TIA

[Optimus187]

So frustrating when small caps is busting out, S&P strong all day and with 30 minutes left, all the gains wiped out. I can't find the leak. Mortgage applications soar, the Fed is pumping money still, CPI looked good, some good earnings reports today and finally ink on the China deal. What the heck?

Ok, just looked and we had a positive finish, but I still hate that late day sell-off stuff. Not cool.

Shiekhs and 1%ers take winnings and do it all over again the next day. Just the way of the world

[VAmanBulls]

I am glad the stock market gods heard my objections yesterday and did not sell-off today. Wow, what a gain in the S fund today. I am second guessing my split S/C decision this month.

[seawatcher]

Everyone in stocks now? 50% C and 50% S with no more IFTs (except G) Is there any data we can consider about how long this will last? Sooner or later I know the stock funds will come down. I'll keep taking the gains for now but on the edge of my seat every day at 11:50am.

What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let the spinnin' wheel spin

[VAmanBulls]

I'm a big earnings guy. Earnings have been up since 09 and the market too has been up since 09. This is earnings season and next week is a big report-out week. Keep in mind last year's tax cuts make year to year comparisons a bit difficult. This week was more financials reporting which are not a great indicator for me due to market conditions not being favorable for banks. I don't see any indication of a recession or bear market in the near future. You always run the risk of a fear sell-off but they usually recover quickly as compared to an 08 bear event. I'm a little concerned with an overheated market. We went from S&P 3100 to 3325 pretty quick. I don't like selling on a Friday close as you tend to see folks not wanting to be long over the weekend and a late push down in the afternoon. I might look to get off the ride next Tue or Wed if we are in the green and look to buy a dip in early Feb. BTW, I really have no idea what I'm talking about but it helps me put the thoughts in my head on paper here. So 'let that shine within your mind' man and have a good weekend.

[bloobs]

Everyone in stocks now? 50% C and 50% S with no more IFTs (except G) Is there any data we can consider about how long this will last? Sooner or later I know the stock funds will come down. I'll keep taking the gains for now but on the edge of my seat every day at 11:50am.

What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let the spinnin' wheel spin

My non-expert action plan (within the next 2 weeks.) is to begin reducing C (just completed its QE fun run), maintain S (still somewhat rising due to trickle down effect from C), increase I & F when it dips (relatively undervalued).

If you hold non-TSP accounts, make sure your equity funds have stop loss orders loaded.