Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

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bloobs
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Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by bloobs »

Which candidate will likely give us one?
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

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stilljammi
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by stilljammi »

Inflation is kicking up, we really should get one. Plus, it would slightly blunt the impact of the deferral. Now, will we? I think Biden would support it if he wins and it's possible depending on the make-up of the Senate. Regardless, I'm expecting a lot of CRs for the rest of the year...

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by Tomanyiron »

Did cost-of-living go up? Most everything went down, fuel sure did. Rent went up, do you guys rent, did it go up?
Oh, and what things cause inflation?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0

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bloobs
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote:Did cost-of-living go up? Most everything went down, fuel sure did. Rent went up, do you guys rent, did it go up?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0
Weeeeeell, I don't recommend anyone take financial advice, or any advice for that matter, from rockers, since we all know no one gets "Money for nothin' and your chicks for free" :wink:

Seriously now, by which I mean, by using facts....
Based on data for the first quarter of 2020, the estimated Social Security COLA for 2021 could be just 0.8%, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for older Amercians. That would be a substantial reduction from this year’s COLA, which was 1.6%. In 2019, recipients got a 2.8% bump. The number is an early estimate based on first quarter data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It could be subject to change by the time the change for next year is announced in October.
In short, yes, the cost of living DID go up.

Happy weekend everyone!

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stilljammi
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by stilljammi »

CPI is increasing, therefore inflation is increasing.
Image
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 112020.pdf

SnareMV17
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by SnareMV17 »

Foolish is the man who trusts government statistics to tell him whether things are getting more expensive or not. Housing costs: the value of my house has gone up about 19% over the past 3 years. It went up over 6% just last year. Verdict: Yes, this cost went up. The cost of a gallon of milk has gone up. Verdict: yes. The value of assets like stocks, commodities, precious metals have all gone up considerably. Verdict: yes. The money supply has ballooned to never before seen levels. Verdict: yes (classical definition of inflation, in fact). A Hersey bar now costs $1.59. I was able to buy it for a quarter as a kid, many even less. Verdict: prices aren’t getting lower.

Now, maybe fuel prices have lowered as a result of volatility in markets both here and abroad, but that isn’t an indicator by itself of a lack of inflation. Asset prices, to me, are the best indicator as they are largely responsible for the widening of the wealth gap.
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Bubba
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by Bubba »

stilljammi wrote:CPI is increasing, therefore inflation is increasing.
Image
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 112020.pdf
Thanks for the info! Great to see this chart.

Bubba
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by Bubba »

SnareMV17 wrote:Foolish is the man who trusts government statistics to tell him whether things are getting more expensive or not. Housing costs: the value of my house has gone up about 19% over the past 3 years. It went up over 6% just last year. Verdict: Yes, this cost went up. The cost of a gallon of milk has gone up. Verdict: yes. The value of assets like stocks, commodities, precious metals have all gone up considerably. Verdict: yes. The money supply has ballooned to never before seen levels. Verdict: yes (classical definition of inflation, in fact). A Hersey bar now costs $1.59. I was able to buy it for a quarter as a kid, many even less. Verdict: prices aren’t getting lower.

Now, maybe fuel prices have lowered as a result of volatility in markets both here and abroad, but that isn’t an indicator by itself of a lack of inflation. Asset prices, to me, are the best indicator as they are largely responsible for the widening of the wealth gap.
Here are my 2 cents:

REITS
Energy companies
Service companies (think CARZ, PLANZ, etc.)
Consumer Staples

Those are most sensitive to inflation. Yet, service companies and energy are in a major problem. Consumer staples are a bit richly priced at the moment. I'm betting on REITs.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... eturns.asp

So, not to poop in my own coffee, but there's another thing to consider about the inflation narrative. Yes, we will have inflation, but there is a major difference with our present situation than that of the 1970s. In the 1970s we were printing money to pay for Vietnam (and don't forget the oil shock!). Now a days, everyone is "printing" money (I don't think the term printing is really what's going on, but that's another discussion) Image. To me, that might limit the negative impact of "money printing."

SnareMV17
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by SnareMV17 »

Inflation isn’t a measurement relative to other central banks. It’s relative to our own economy. When assets skyrocket because of the money printing, again, the wealthy get wealthier and poor people remain poor. It’s a great way to take millions of Americans and leave them in the dust. It’s a horrible way to raise all boats and broaden the tax base in order to cover massive debt. What it means is there will be less and less people to tax and they will have to tax those of us who do have some money even more. It’s not a pretty picture. One way or another, the government will need to spend more and more money as the dollar becomes worth less and less, and there’s only one source that the government steals its money from, us!
Last edited by SnareMV17 on Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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bloobs
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by bloobs »

SnareMV17 wrote:Inflation isn’t a measurement relative to other central banks. It’s relative to our own economy. When assets skyrocket because of the money printing, again, the wealthy get wealthier and poor people remain poor. It’s a great way to life’s of. Illinois of Americans and leave them in the dust. It’s a horrible way to raise all boats and broaden the tax base in order to cover massive debt. What it means is there will be less and less people to tax and they will have tax those of us who do have some money even more. It’s not a pretty picture. One way or another, the government will need to spend more and more money as the dollar becomes worth less and less, and there’s only one place that the government steals its money from, us!
Agree with your assessment, but I would make the important distinction that it is really the owners of big corporations that steals our money through the methods you refer to above. The nuance being that these corporations lobbyists' use the government to make and enforce these policies (monetary policy) and orders/laws (fiscal policy through executive orders and congressional statutes).
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

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Aitrus
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by Aitrus »

I appreciate the speculation about whether we'll get a cost-of-living increase, as well as the reasons why it might be high or low. Such an increase (or not) affects us all and is a good topic.

However, it looks like we might be straying towards politics a bit, and we need to avoid going down that road.
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SnareMV17
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by SnareMV17 »

I will set the over-under at a 1.6% increase in that case. What say thee?
"Get your money for nothin', and your chicks for free."

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bloobs
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by bloobs »

SnareMV17 wrote:I will set the over-under at a 1.6% increase in that case. What say thee?
That figure would be amazing. Vote accordingly.

searight
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by searight »

To answer the original question, first are you asking about a COLA which applies to social security, FERS and CSRS OR are you talking about a pay raise that applies to current federal employees?

For the pay raise "Trump’s plan calls for a 1% across-the-board pay raise for civilian federal employees next year, with no additional locality pay adjustments." https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-cau ... -deferral/

Since Trump's term extends past January 1, 2021 the answer will be real similar. If he chooses to try and buy our votes with a higher raise, I wholeheartedly would endorse a higher raise.

Seperate issue, when we talk about owners of large corporations, that is us if you own C,S, I or L funds.

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bloobs
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Re: Are we getting a cost-of-living increase next year?

Post by bloobs »

searight wrote:To answer the original question, first are you asking about a COLA which applies to social security, FERS and CSRS OR are you talking about a pay raise that applies to current federal employees?

For the pay raise "Trump’s plan calls for a 1% across-the-board pay raise for civilian federal employees next year, with no additional locality pay adjustments." https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-cau ... -deferral/

Since Trump's term extends past January 1, 2021 the answer will be real similar. If he chooses to try and buy our votes with a higher raise, I wholeheartedly would endorse a higher raise.

Seperate issue, when we talk about owners of large corporations, that is us if you own C,S, I or L funds.

I use the term "pay raise" as a synonym for COLA, since federal employees should never get a pay raise that is not merit-based--and merit is personally, not collectively, earned. At least in my agency.

My opinion is that there is nothing that obligates the incumbents, whether they sit in the executive or legislative branches to stay true to their "proposed" budget circa Feb 2020--once they have been reelected, especially since there are so many reasons/excuses to renege on that promise (i.e. COVID effects). As a local for over 30 years, I know Washington power players employ a "use then discard" approach to getting their way. Once they get their way by promising everything under the sun to you, you suddenly become invisible to them.

Good luck to us all regardless.

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