Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

[crondanet5]

rline doesn't have to be in the Fantasy Game. He gave you his allocation percentages. I'll bet there are 5 other people in the Game with those exact allocations so with a little research you would know how well he is doing. The important thing is rline has good points about the I Fund. Study that aspect of his posts and let him decide if he wants to participate in the Fantasy Game if he has the time to devote to it and if he chooses to share with the other Gamers when and how he allocates his money. It took me 2 years to decide to get into the Fantasy Game. He may or may not join. His choice, just like it was your choice.

[rlinehan]

"I am remiss in answering your question."

Thanks, crondanet: Good to know.

[rlinehan]

"I wouldn't take any of this seriously dcramer."

Nor would I, waynekaryn.

Sorry if I offended you in any way: I thought your point was excellent.

"Gamer" wasn't my word but someone else's, and did NOT refer to you in any way -- please check to confirm that.

Sorry again!

[Robvegas]

From my POV the fantasy game is for guys like me on the learning curve that are trying to figure out how to best manage the TSP account.

Rline has backed up his facts with references and some excellent commentary...and obviously knows how to reach US the reader otherwise there wouldn't be 47 posts on this thread.

I ask you Rline to check in more often and share your thoughts. BRAVO... this place needs more of these spirited discussions.

RV

[rlinehan]

Wow, dcramer!

Sorry that I offended you, too!

But I don’t talk big, still less engage in “fantasy.”

Evenly split TSP-stock fund allocation will NEVER beat the leaders on the Leader Board here.

Which I acknowledge straight out.

If you want to know those, go there – NOT to me.

Which YOU seem to need to do.

WHY?

Your “reported” “fantasy” performance this year is 2.7%, which is VERY good, as the markets are in turmoil, and you’ve certainly beaten my performance during that time.

Is THAT talking “big”? No: Fact.

If you keep your performance up, you’re in Great Shape!

On the other hand, how do I KNOW that your “fantasy” TSP is your REAL TSP allocation.

“Fantasy” MEANS PRECISELY that! And I don’t fantasize but invest.

Even so, your “fantasy” has beaten my REAL so far THIS YEAR.

Good for you!

What about last year, though?

NOT so good for you, +5.1%, even with 15 allocation changes – while the C returned 13.8%, the S, 7.8%, and the I, -6.7%. Indeed, even the F whupped you!

My return? Not so great, either, 7.0% -- in my TSP account, that is.

But then there’s 2013, when stock markets skyrocketed, with the C rising 32.5%; the S 38.4%, and the hated I, 22.1%

My returns were market ones: 30+%! YOURS? 0.8%

WHAT did you do there? WHY?

Or is that number inaccurate, as many in this site seem to be?

Or have you learned from your experience that year?

If the latter, you are on Right Track!

Indeed, UP 2.7% so far this year!

Good for you!

And sorry if that offends you.

[waynekaryn]

rlinehan - I'm eating crow for breakfast this morning.

I must have misunderstood your earlier comment. For that I apologize. I was thinking the "gamer" term was a perjorative used toward my methods of navagating the market. And I did look at some of your links, which, quite frankly, has some excellent information.

I rely mostly on technicals, but I can see, that in order to up my game (no pun intended ), that I need to do more research from your links.

Again, my bad for jumping the gun.

[dcramer29]

rline - it's pretty simple. Make your performance transparent so everyone can see it. That way we can give you the cred you deserve or don't deserve.

[rlinehan]

No need, waynekaryn.

As you wrote, "I wouldn't take any of this seriously….”

Just a misunderstanding.

And my “sorry” still stands, anyway:

I didn’t mean for that misunderstanding to occur at all.

So please stow the crow and accept my apology!

[rlinehan]

Hope you stayed the course, crondanet!

The S Fund remains good place to be these days, as it has been so far this year.

And there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest otherwise.

Other than the crazy volatility that is roiling ALL markets.

And today the roil was UP!

That volatility is likely to persist this year.

Please ignore that volatility and stay where you are.

If you want to know when to get out of stocks, please check out this site:

http://dashofinsight.com/

Jeff Miller, the site author, didn’t post this week, but he usually does every week.

The key “market timing” part of his post is Quant Corner.

That seeks to identify Bear Markets.

Market blips can’t be predicted.

On this, see TSPKey’s post today in the “Newbie wants answers” thread:

“As for ‘knowing’ how the market will react, that's unfortunately impossible. In general, the longer the Fed keeps rates unchanged, the more bullish people are on stocks. However, the market's reaction to Fed statements, unemployment data, etc., is unpredictable and sometimes counter-intuitive.

“The Fed took out the word ‘patient’ from its statement today. Some thought that would cause stocks to tank. Obviously that hasn't been the case.”

Amen!

[rlinehan]

It is highly ironic, dcramer, that you use the word “cred.”

This from a person whose “fantasy TSP” “Unrealized Gain” is a paltry +1.09% over three years.

AND you still haven’t answered the simple questions I posed above: WHY have you so badly underperformed a market that’s been up every year during that time frame, including 2013, which saw 30+% rise? Or are those “fantasy” figures inaccurate? And do they reflect your REAL TSP performance?

We’re still waiting your answer on those points. WHERE is the “cred” there?

Furthermore, you are the one who started this thread off -- on the Wrong Foot. And you still don’t seem to comprehend that it wasn’t just the I Fund that was down at the time of your post, but the C, S, AND F, as well. AND that it is NOT just oil price that caused that development.

AND still is NOT!

In short, you appear to remain utterly clueless.

If you are really interested in these issues, you should consult:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13038315 ... -mind.html

http://www.cnbc.com/live-tv/mad-money/f ... 4685763860

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-f ... 1426594758

Maybe then you might improve your poor performance!

Then again, it appears that reading isn’t your “thing,” any more than TSP “gaming” is: Did you not understand what crondanet wrote?

“rline doesn't have to be in the Fantasy Game. He gave you his allocation percentages. I'll bet there are 5 other people in the Game with those exact allocations so with a little research you would know how well he is doing…. let him decide if he wants to participate in the Fantasy Game if he has the time to devote to it…. It took me 2 years to decide to get into the Fantasy Game. He may or may not join. His choice, just like it was your choice.”

Did you also miss my post, too?

“I don’t talk big, still less engage in ‘fantasy….’ how do I KNOW that your ‘fantasy’ TSP is your REAL TSP allocation?”

WHERE is your response to that?

Or is it your “choice” NOT to read that which you don’t like. Or can you NOT conceive of anything other than fantasy? If it isn’t “fantasy TSP,” it is NOT “cred”?

And WHERE is the “cred” in the following post?

“… for Rline to disagree with speculation that's fine. Anyone can have their opinion. But to disagree with facts such as the EFA and I-fund trending lower at the start of the oil collapse is just factually wrong. Whether oil is an influence ? That's my speculation, but it's statistical fact that the trend changed at the same time the energy collapse began. Or like Relavant mentioned, it's also statistically factual that the I-fund trend changed at the same time the UUP started it's moonshot. It's also a statistical fact that there is an excessive amount of oil available on the markets. Companies all across the plains are shutting down pumps. Was in Vernon County Missouri yesterday, pumps are shut down there and in Bourbon County Kansas.”

HOW is that in any way response to my post? Did you even read that? WHERE is your response to mine about the absurd claims you raised in your post? And WHERE did I deny that it’s “a statistical fact that there is an excessive amount of oil available on the markets”?

You REFUSE to address the issues I raised but, instead, just make up falsehoods.

WHERE is the "cred" there?

How precisely does that “logic” of yours work: If you repeat nonsense over and over again, that makes the nonsense “factual”? And if you call it “factual,” that makes it so? And if you repeat even more, that makes it even MORE “factual,” indeed, “statistical fact”?

WOW!

How does ANY of that constitute “cred”?

[crondanet5]

What a great web site. I'm not sure his cows would make it all the way to the barn, but they'd be close. I like to follow the S Fund chart at the bottom of this page. When it gets near the top of the chart I'm as nervous as the new puppy on the living room carpet. Matter of fact, the line looks pretty well up there. All the way out 5 years. And, like MLKMAN says, "Uh oh. It's almost twelve." Everybody put me on your watchlist. I feel an IFT coming over the horizon. Stay tuned.

[rlinehan]

Indeed, crondanet! That seems to be your problem.

That's why I suggested G in the first place.

Then you can sleep at night.

How does flipping funds change that state of affairs?

Stay in G, and you can't go wrong.

[crondanet5]

I believe it is better to avoid the market downdrafts than stay in them. The question is will this be a downdraft or a small consolidation? There is nothing more frustrating than getting out, seeing a one-day drop, and then missing a freight train rise the next day. It would be a lot easier if we had unlimited IFTs to cut the risk of ulcers when making decisions to stay in or get out.

[rlinehan]

“The question is will this be a downdraft or a small consolidation?”

Exactly, and it’s what it’s been the past several years -- small consolidation.

I linked dashofinsight above: That guy follows this stuff, and bear market is nowhere on the radar.

And you saw skiehawk’s post on this very subject today: His stance is the same.

The sources I linked above described choppiness, volatility.

Pretty much everything I see these days predicts more volatility this year than recently.

That’s because major changes are brewing in markets, starting with the Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rate policy.

Which means choppiness, volatility, NOT Bear Market!

I see you describe your risk tolerance as high; well, then, you should stay the course.

Follow what skiehawk says; I see nothing wrong with his analysis AT ALL.

In addition to dashofinsight.com, you should also read this:

http://wealthyretirement.com/videos/get ... es-unless/

And you may also consider doing something like this: Print out a list of the Year-to-Date Leaderboard members; check that against the leaders of last year. If you find members that beat the market (C Fund, +13.78%) that year as well as this (I Fund, +7.03%), go for them. Then check their performance in 2013 and 2012. If they did well those two years, too, they’re consistent winners, and you should follow them.

But stick with them, and do NOT leave the market because it went down -- 1 day, 1 week, or 1 month. Only move when they do.

AND follow dashofinsight: Do NOT pay any attention to market “noise.” It is meaningless.

Indeed, that’s what’s so wrong about this thread: It is TOTALLY off base – and “factually” WRONG!

And did you see what I typed above? As of yesterday, the leading TSP stock fund this year is the I Fund: +7.03%

That’s what I wrote last week: +7.24%.

In case you wonder, the +7.03% comes from today’s TSP Charts & Returns.

Either follow Leader Board leaders, or stay in the S Fund, or go to the G – and STAY there.

Do NOT flip-flop!

As you can see, dcramer hasn’t responded to my last post.

Who is that character? Does s/he post nonsense like this all the time?

Thanks!

[rlinehan]

dcramer: Still waiting for your answers to the questions I raised!

Is it really true that your “fantasy TSP” “Unrealized Gain” is a paltry +1.09% over three years?

Or is that figure inaccurate?

And/or is it your REAL TSP gain?

If the latter, HOW is it you got whupped by the G Fund?

WHY don't you stay in that fund?

Still waiting!