Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

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crondanet5
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Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:51 pm

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by crondanet5 »

Rline one thing that concerns me is these are historical returns. They do not reflect Fund direction today or tomorrow. Yes the G historically leads the pack, but is one of the other Funds now outperforming and overtaking the G Fund? Would it not be wiser to be in that Fund while closely deciding whether to go back into the G Fund while the other Funds drop in share price?

dcramer29
Posts: 327
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:56 am

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by dcramer29 »

Yeah Rline - for some reason I can't see you fantasy account stats.

How's that coming along ?

crondanet5
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by crondanet5 »

Rline pay no attention to these naysayers. Please think about and address my question so I can ask you the next question which I think is more important than that question but I'm waiting to get your take on the first question before asking the second question. I value your opinion, just hope I made the question clear enough for you to understand what I'm asking.

dcramer29
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by dcramer29 »

Cron - for Rline to disagree with speculation that's fine. Anyone can have their opinion. But to disagree with facts such as the EFA and I-fund trending lower at the start of the oil collapse is just factually wrong. Whether oil is an influence ? That's my speculation, but it's statistical fact that the trend changed at the same time the energy collapse began. Or like Relavant mentioned, it's also statistically factual that the I-fund trend changed at the same time the UUP started it's moonshot. It's also a statistical fact that there is an excessive amount of oil available on the markets. Companies all across the plains are shutting down pumps. Was in Vernon County Missouri yesterday, pumps are shut down there and in Bourbon County Kansas.

crondanet5
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by crondanet5 »

Statistics are historically derived. I want to know what Fund to be in for Monday.

waynekaryn
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 9:05 am

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by waynekaryn »

Good points on this discussion folks. However, at the end of the day, we're just gambling with the information we have. Sometimes it works for us, sometimes it works against us. Just like Poker ;)

skiehawk11
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Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:32 pm

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by skiehawk11 »

Well, historically speaking oil and the domestic markets tend to track each other. The only conclusive thing that can be said is that when there is a divergence from the correlation one or the other should correct.

So, if you think about it...a stronger dollar isn't necessarily a good thing for the domestic market. Cheaper oil should be a good thing for the domestic equity markets sans most energy companies. The reason being is that there IS an oversupply problem. There will have to be either a distinct rise in oil demand or a distinct reduction in oil supply.

With that said, being in domestic equities during QE periods has been a positive trade. Whether that translates to overseas markets should be considered as well as currency conditions. Which means even if QE is such a good thing for equities, EFA will not perform as well if the USD keeps strengthening. Which is why I don't play with EFA.

To prove my point, go to the website posted below and see the EAFE index priced in Euro's.

http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/co ... mance.html

The lesson, DON'T invest in EFA when the strength of the dollar increases. It negates any performance from any QE done overseas where EFA is invested in.

Oh, and to further clarify my opinions, the 5% mix of oil in the index isn't the main driver of performance for the EFA at this time. Neither is the QE going on. The main driver of performance for the EFA right now is the strengthening dollar in U.S. markets. It's different on overseas exchanges. :)

EDIT 1: "any performance" is a bit strong. However, a strengthening dollar in relation to weakening currencies of the countries where the aforementioned index has companies does have a significant dampening affect. This has been most pronounced of late since QE has gone in overdrive in Europe while the U.S. is winding down its QE programs.

EDIT 2: The reason why EFA has been up YTD is all in the currency. :) EURO and USD were both flat during the beginning of the year hence the very positive performance of EFA. Now, EFA is tanking because of a strengthening USD.

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Relevant
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by Relevant »

Spot on Skie - to support your first statement on oil tracking domestic markets the 1st chart below is the S&P 500 as compared to WTI (Crude Oil) in the larger chart below.
Image
http://relevantinvestments.com/good-news-bad-news/

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TSPsmart
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by TSPsmart »

Crondanet5...Statistics are historically derived. I want to know what Fund to be in for Monday.


The one going up, Crondanet5, the one going up.

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Relevant
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by Relevant »

TSPsmart wrote:
Crondanet5...Statistics are historically derived. I want to know what Fund to be in for Monday.


The one going up, Crondanet5, the one going up.


I'd suggest reading next Tuesday's newspaper. :D

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RGEN
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Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:12 am

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by RGEN »

G Fund is going up. I am going to hangout there until the Feds talk. 8-)
RGEN


crondanet5
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Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by crondanet5 »

There may be a positive turning point for the I Fund in July (not that far off) if European sanctions against Russia are lifted. That would cause an increase in production and trade. As I understand it there is a lot of sentiment among the important European leaders to lift the sanctions and give the truce a chance. So far it is working except in the minds of the Ukrainian leaders who have declared war on Russia and are sucking in US dollars from the State Department that is rabid in their all out offensive to destroy Russia. I won't dwell on our stupidity (that's like betting against the New England Patriots and Bill Bellichek {who, for you sports fans are in the process of redefining the team which means they have a shot at giving Tom Brady his fifth Superbowl ring next year} when nobody saw them change midseason from a passing game to a running game) in supporting the wrong side of this redefinement of property boundaries in that region. Instead I leave you with the thought that if the sanctions are lifted the I Fund should pop.

rlinehan
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:37 pm

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by rlinehan »

“G Fund is the ‘safest’ investment on earth in terms of securities. Lead in a certain form could probably vie for safest if shtf.”

That pretty much says it all.

“I don't play with EFA.”

That’s probably the best idea.

“The reason why EFA has been up YTD is all in the currency.”

No, it isn’t – read the links I provided above.

As for “fantasy account,” I notice that most of the last posts in this thread occurred Friday between 9:59 am and 4:44 pm. Aren’t you folks supposed to be working? Maybe Congress should know what’s going on in federal government agencies during work hours!

And fantasy, it seems, is what’s going on here in this thread – fanatasizing on the job, no less!

Someone else answered what TSP Fund to be in on Monday: The one that’s going up.

And that likely will be the ONE that was up Friday – AND beaten ALL the rest the last three weeks.

Better yet, try lead.

VDaGama
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Nov 28, 2014 7:59 pm

Re: Collapse in Oil Hurting the I-Fund ?

Post by VDaGama »

You are spot on to raise concern about Russia, Crondanet. Who knows what's going to happen next there -- and its impact on Russia's neighbors, some of whom have companies that are in the I Fund?

And that's not just impacting European markets (and the I Fund) but our own, as well.

Who knows what's going to happen Monday (or Tuesday, etc.)?
Last edited by VDaGama on Sat Mar 14, 2015 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Fund Prices2022-08-10

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.99 0.01% 1.49%
F $19.12 0.15% -8.47%
C $64.14 2.13% -10.85%
S $69.64 3.34% -16.54%
I $33.95 2.14% -13.91%
L2065 $13.02 2.29% -12.54%
L2060 $13.02 2.29% -12.53%
L2055 $13.02 2.29% -12.52%
L2050 $26.81 1.90% -10.69%
L2045 $12.31 1.78% -9.98%
L2040 $45.22 1.66% -9.20%
L2035 $12.03 1.53% -8.34%
L2030 $40.33 1.39% -7.43%
L2025 $11.63 0.94% -5.02%
Linc $22.96 0.56% -2.25%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".