Changes to seasonal method

Managing your TSP and alternate investment options after retirement or separation from service.

Moderator: Aitrus

Post Reply
User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Changes to seasonal method

Post by cswift01 »

So, I'm at a crossroads at this point. I'm really liking the I-Fund for the month of May, however, the seasonal strategy says its time to head to the C-Fund, which should do well if the tax cuts become a thing. Nonetheless, I'm thinking of waiting until after the French election to depart from the I-Fund.

My question to you guys, what do you do when major events happen (like this upcoming French election) to how you adjust the seasonal strategy...or do you guys just stick with it? I know many state that they do their seasonals without hesitation, however, whenever very specific events happen, don't you take a bet too? I.e. whenever its a regular time period, you stick with the plan, however, whenever rare events you wait?

Just wondering how our community will respond.

Best,

Me

dearsmiths
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:41 am

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by dearsmiths »

I have been in the I fund too following Timbo and considering the C fund but wondering if Macron wins on Sunday, would that benefit staying I Fund one more day and then doing a IFT on Monday for C fund. Anyone have any opinions on that?

Thx!

User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by cswift01 »

dearsmiths wrote:I have been in the I fund too following Timbo and considering the C fund but wondering if Macron wins on Sunday, would that benefit staying I Fund one more day and then doing a IFT on Monday for C fund. Anyone have any opinions on that?

Thx!


That's my exact thinking.

Best,

Me

dearsmiths
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:41 am

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by dearsmiths »

Please provide comments by 1145 am EST, LOL.

User avatar
Ofsthun01
Posts: 127
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:57 pm

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by Ofsthun01 »

Since I never know how the markets will respond to said events, I prefer to stick with the seasonal. Especially since my gut is always wrong on how I think markets will react.
Your Free Financial Advisor. Zero trading costs
https://www.wisebanyan.com/referral/92F0PFFWI

Scarfinger
Posts: 615
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00 am

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by Scarfinger »

cswift01 wrote:So, I'm at a crossroads at this point. I'm really liking the I-Fund for the month of May, however, the seasonal strategy says its time to head to the C-Fund, which should do well if the tax cuts become a thing. Nonetheless, I'm thinking of waiting until after the French election to depart from the I-Fund.

My question to you guys, what do you do when major events happen (like this upcoming French election) to how you adjust the seasonal strategy...or do you guys just stick with it? I know many state that they do their seasonals without hesitation, however, whenever very specific events happen, don't you take a bet too? I.e. whenever its a regular time period, you stick with the plan, however, whenever rare events you wait?

Just wondering how our community will respond.

Best,

Me


You don't. Stick to the plan. It averages its self out. The seasonal is to prevent you from following an undisciplined EMOTIONAL plan that changes with every world event.

-----------
(edit)
I tried some fancy timing of the market after I said I was going to follow the seasonal strategy with a goal of out performing Timboslice. I lost 3%... I am sticking to a seasonal for this year considering I have another 15 years to go.
I am just an average Joe. I have no clue to what the market will do.
TimboSlice wrote: "People really need to stop overthinking this."
Following Daily Seasonal # 139921 as a general guideline.

User avatar
Aitrus
Moderator
Posts: 2098
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by Aitrus »

cswift, I don't make any changes anymore. I've proven to myself over and over again that I can't time the market for squat, including for specific events like elections. Others might have a better read on things, but not me.

One of the original reasons I came up with the seasonal strategy I did was that I couldn't divide the emotional side from the logical side of my brain when it came to investing. Now I just have to maintain my discipline of ignoring world events as they relate to the stock market. I know that I'll lose out sometimes, and that's ok, because the system wins more often than it loses.
Seasonal Musings 2021: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=18757
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

User avatar
evilanne
Posts: 1886
Joined: Thu May 14, 2015 6:52 pm

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by evilanne »

And if Le Pen wins the I Fund may tank (think Brexit). You have two new IFTs on Monday...I don't like the 100% in any fund

User avatar
cswift01
Posts: 819
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:46 am

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by cswift01 »

evilanne wrote:And if Le Pen wins the I Fund may tank (think Brexit). You have two new IFTs on Monday...I don't like the 100% in any fund


There's always the chance that Le Pen wins. True, if that happens it would be time to "I-exit" (I'm trademarking that one!).

I couldn't imagine going 100% into only one fund. While I am very tolerant for risky investments, not putting all my eggs in one basket is my personal motto.

Hoping for the best on Sunday.

Best,

Me

User avatar
mjedlin66
Site Admin
Posts: 1387
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:51 pm

Re: Changes to seasonal method

Post by mjedlin66 »

But putting all your eggs in one basket, in this case, actually means putting all your eggs into hundreds or thousands of different companies. A single fund IS a diverse portfolio.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

Post Reply

Fund Prices2021-04-16

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.56 0.00% 0.34%
F $20.66 -0.21% -2.53%
C $62.57 0.36% 11.92%
S $83.28 -0.04% 12.24%
I $38.19 0.63% 7.92%
L2065 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2060 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2055 $13.71 0.39% 10.49%
L2050 $27.99 0.31% 8.45%
L2045 $12.79 0.29% 7.92%
L2040 $46.72 0.27% 7.42%
L2035 $12.36 0.25% 6.82%
L2030 $41.20 0.23% 6.25%
L2025 $11.71 0.18% 4.93%
Linc $22.82 0.08% 2.45%

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".

What else

"Don't ever half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
- Ron Swanson