Election: Bull or Bear

[SgtWs]

Are you anticipating bullish or bearish moves come the election results on Tuesday?

[whitty4]

I am predicting a heavy Republican turnout, a lackluster Demacrat turnout for the election, and a bull response to the results. That is just my opinion, and you might be wrong.

[SgtWs]

I concur with your assessment, I'm just trying to figure out if we have already priced in the election?

[nlsn]

Bull to perhaps spring then Bear as overspending price is paid.
I would be a relief to have a congress not striving to outspend a president.

[TSPKip]

Bull today.
Flat tomorrow.
Bear down 4% through November 16 [we still have a lame duck congress that is progressive and not so lame: last chance saloon.]
Very Bull at least through April.
Bull entire year.

[SgtWs]

Dang TSPKip.......that is what I call "making a call"..............

[TSPKip]

Rodney: In compliance will the saying: 'Plan your trade, trade your plan,' and considering that I believe that: the market will be flat after today, and will correct with a moderate fall by mid-month, I am getting out today [with nominal gains since late October] into the G fund, and will use my second allocation after the expected fall.
I see that if we can swallow our pride, and give our thought processes to light of scrutiny of our peers, we can all grow in the skills necessary to make gains in TSP.
Day traders will possibly take gains today and the market is near a sell by many indicators, so my gains will be minimal; however, I wish to avoid capital loss by the major unexpected forces upon the market. One could be that, despite the congressional losses expected, the existing Congress will cause similar market behavior I noted in 1994 after Clinton's loss of the House during that Lame Duck session. The Senate and House passed the GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, that they could not pass prior to the election. I.E.: Since 70% of CEO's expressed on a CNBC poll today that in the future, they will no longer subsidize health care insurance for their employees, What if the Lame Duck Congress decides through Reconciliation to add the public option to the passed Health Care Bill? [Needs only 50 votes in the Senate.]
Also, other forces in include: the Fed's QE may be less than the market expects; and the Republicans may get the House but not a landslide.
Though not all the above may occur and I may miss some major gains, I consider that the Risk/Benefit requires I take this position. However, I am very bullish for the rest of the year after a correction of 4% this month. Good luck to all of us!
I would appreciate others' logic used in their market decisions.

[flight23]

TSPProphet moved in today... based on prior moves that means he/she expects a 1-2% gain at least in a very short term (likely b/c of election).

[SgtWs]

The market is acting strange........what the heck happened tot he NASDAQ!? BIDU, NFLX, all of them were crashing today!

[UwshUwerME]

It's obviously Bearish or nothing. The market has already priced in a Republican win based on polling. With one exception - the Republicans take the Senate. Most aren't predicting that will happen.

[SgtWs]

I think we are due for a 4-5% pull back..........just thinking out loud......but look at all the TSP participants that are piling in!

Am I missing something?

[TSPKip]

Rodney: I am getting educated. Among other things, the fall yesterday was in part due to the rising dollar which started to fall in the second half of the day, too late to allow profit recovery facilitated by late day trading buying up the lowered value stocks. I am using the running dollar index in the future to help outcome: go in when the dollar is strengthening or stable in order to position best when the market is relatively at its lowest value; and go out when the dollar is weakening when the dollar has pushed the market relatively higher. Of course a necessary move must be made despite the dollar at times. The 4 hour delay in market close makes this dollar evaluation necessary. Today, the dollar is rising again as yesterday, and though deeper to start, was rising at a higher slope. But the last half hour, the markets recovered with the fall again of the dollar.

[TSPKip]

Rodney: They are following the pied piper or savior, depending on the outcome. Hope they are making the decision themselves. I also am expecting a 4-5% pull back in after the election.

[TSPKip]

Rodney: Have you noticed that the MACD chart lines and volumes of the S&P 500, EFA, and VXF [S fund] since August 1 look identical to 1/10/2010 to 5/10/2010. Looks like a correction is due.

[flight23]

Thats what everyone is saying. The problem is the market doesnt tend to be logical

As they say dont fight it.... right now Im just buying things day to day, not holding overnight until the market decides on a direction. The tight range/consolidation we've had for the past couple of weeks may mean we are gearing up for another strong move up, but until we break the upper resistance (April's highs) I wouldnt go all in, and even then only if we decisively break the highs.