Will the end of QE2 in June kill the uptrend?

[Jahbulon]

Will the end of the Fed's QE2 in June kill the current uptrend?

[Jahbulon]

LULU is performing nicely as it attempts to further its breakout. Volume was up 46% yesterday, appears to be going up today (I hope). I do have a large position in this stock.

OPEN, a stock I mentioned a couple of days ago as an interesting observation reported last night. The stock has had tremendous growth, but over 1/3 of all shares are now being shorted. If growth continues then a short squeeze will ensue. I do not own this stock in any form or fashion.

Well, OPEN's Q4 EPS soared to 136% to 33 cents, beating by 11 cents, as it booked tables for 59% more diners. Revenue surged 60.5% to $30.8 mil, just over views. Its restaurant base jumped 62%. Operating margins fell to 17.6% from 21.5%. Shares we flat yesterday in late volatile trading.

I just saw this from ARGUS:

The Baltic Dry Index, once known as the Baltic Freight Index, is an index of shipping rates for cargo vessels. Fans of the index love to point out its value as a leading indicator. However the index has been a better leading indicator on the way up than on the way down. For example, both the Baltic Dry Index and the S&P 500 began a steep descent in the spring of 2008. However, the index bottomed in the first week of 2009 while the S&P 500 took another few months to hit its own bottom. The S&P 500 and Baltic Freight have sharply diverged again in recent months. As of this writing, the Baltic is down by more than 50% since last September while the S&P 500 is up by more than 15%.

[flight23]

Please keep us updated on other stocks you are considering purchasing Jahbulon.

The Baltic Dry Index is interesting... although it did seem to bottom out early in 2009 as that quote stated it seems like if one followed it during this uptrend then they would have missed out on large upswings... The divergence is definitely something to keep an eye on though. Some say it may be because of a supply of new ships, increasing transport unit volume and competition to fill the ships..

Another concerning thought is the cost of shipping goods has decreased considerably which may be only a temporary help to company margins etc and as rates begin to rise we will see those margins squeezed once again, or significant inflation.

I would be worried once the BDI starts to turn upwards in this case. (which, btw, it may have just started to do)

[Jahbulon]

PCLN is trying to break out............It has been basing since November, so it should be time........

[Jahbulon]

Digesting Bernanke's Testimony

12:00 PM ET 2/9/11 | Briefing.com

In a testimony to the House Budget Committee, Fed Chairman Bernanke stated that the economic recovery that began in the middle of 2009 appears to have strengthened in the past few months, although the unemployment rate remains high. He noted, though, that economic growth slowed significantly last spring and concerns about the durability of the recovery intensified as the impetus from inventory building and fiscal stimulus diminished and as Europe's fiscal and banking problems roiled global financial markets. More recently, there is increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spending may be taking hold since real consumer spending increased at an annual rate of more than 4% in the fourth quarter.

He added that improving household and business confidence, accommodative monetary policy, and more-supportive financial conditions, including an apparently increasing willingness of banks to lend, seem likely to result in a more rapid pace of economic recovery in 2011 than last year.

[Pocono13]

PCLN must be releasing earnings soon.

[Jahbulon]

Hey, we got a little strength going into the close.....thats positive!

[Jahbulon]

Take a look at CHK on stockcharts.com and observe the recent surges of volume of buying that someone is doing in CHK...........the volume is in the millions of shares, and someone, a hedge fund,...etc...appears to be buying the sh-- out of the stock! usually when you get that kind of buying you get a really nice run up afterwards...........

But who knows. I would run a trailing stop loss of like 8-10%. I did buy this one last week too.

[Jahbulon]

PCLN reports earnings next week, so watch the market action to gauge whether or not it will beat.

BUT, I'm getting concerned with Cisco's report last night, and fear it might cause us to go into a pullback. I hope not, and I have no idea, but let's see what happens.

Unemployment claims dropped from an anticipated 412,000 to 383,000!

I saw this from Argus Market Watch and thought it was interesting:

Slowly but surely, the U.S. dollar is trending lower on a trade-weighted basis and is approaching its lowest levels in the past 20 years. The trend has been driven by a number of factors, including the surging U.S. budget deficit, the relatively stronger growth of emerging economies and the potential for inflation (given an aggressive monetary policy). The trend has provided a positive backdrop to export industries including food and beverages, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. The trend against the Euro has been more volatile, reflecting the sovereign debt crisis in Southern Europe and the potential (not high) for the currency union to unravel. Looking ahead, the Euro may well trend back toward parity if protests erupt again in the spring. Once the situation stabilizes, we look for the Euro to trade in the 1.35-1.45 range. We look for the U.S. dollar to continue its descent on a trade-weighted basis as the Fed implements QEII. But we don't think the greenback will break substantially through the lows. The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong enough, relative to other economies, to halt an alarming slide.

[flight23]

Im back in the eternal two trade conundrum... want to get out now but that would use up my second IFT for the month and then the cycle repeats next month where if I want to get in I use up my first IFT and then my second one is wasted getting out again... ugh.

[peteruso]

Pretty good chance it will

[Jahbulon]

I saw that chart last night and was thinking of posting! Great move! It really makes you wonder. If the ending of QEII does call the markets to drop, I anticipate that we will see the actual turn about 4-6 weeks before the actual ending happens as hedge fund managers start moving ahead of time for this set up..........

[flight23]

Is there an exact date for QE2 to end?

[pokerstar]

Is there an exact date for QE2 to end?

I think it ends in June 2011, perhaps they'll employ QE3 if needed?