Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Official TSP Center polls.

Moderator: Aitrus

Are we in a Bull Market, or a Bull Trap?

Bull Market
45
62%
Bear Trap
28
38%
 
Total votes: 73

ralpharch
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2010 2:14 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by ralpharch »

EpicWin wrote:Is the poll officially about a bull market and a bear trap? I suppose it's both.


I believe that is the way the poll was posted and I voted (for a bear trap). But it was changed following a comment (by flight pilot?) that it wasn't technically a bear trap so they changed it to a bull trap.

Not disagreeing technically - but to my way of thinking and voting, the "bears", which IMO are represented by those TSP's that had great returns in 2011 and were looking to repeat that success by avoiding the big drop, were caught by this rally and were trapped since when to get back in is a question if there isn't a correction that warranted being out.

User avatar
flight23
Posts: 1342
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by flight23 »

A bear trap is a false reversal which causes bears to pile on board only to get caught with losses when the market fails to continue down and quickly reverses back upwards. Since we have been basically straight up since December this cant really be considered a bear trap in the conventional sense. At this point I dont think I would consider it a bull trap either since the market has moved up so much and over a decent amount of time... usually the 'traps' are reserved for false reversals.
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ralpharch
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2010 2:14 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by ralpharch »

If anything I believe the "bear trap " monniker was more appropriate than changing it to a "bull trap."

Since we can't short the TSP funds there is no classical way to get caught in a bear trap in the TSP. But what happened is similar contemporaneously to what outsiders could have experienced by shorting the various indices in late December and having to cover when they continued upwards.

http://financial-dictionary.thefreedict ... /Bear+Trap

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