Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Official TSP Center polls.

Moderator: Aitrus

Are we in a Bull Market, or a Bull Trap?

Bull Market
45
62%
Bear Trap
28
38%
 
Total votes: 73

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

Are we in a Bull Market, or a Bull Trap?

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flight23
Posts: 1342
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:47 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by flight23 »

Bull trap you mean?
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rwblizzard
Posts: 18
Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:37 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by rwblizzard »

Neither. Bear market.

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

Thanks for catching that Flight........

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Foghorn
Posts: 51
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 3:50 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Foghorn »

Jahby,

I've been following the S Fund for some time now and the chart shows that it has been in an uptrend since early Oct 2011, therefore, my opinion is that we're in a Bull market.
Yes, the S Fund dipped in Nov 2011 for about 8 days but after that it continued the uptrend.
I expect further dips (and I will buy the dips) but until the trend breaks and remains in a downtrend I will continue to espouse that it's a Bull market.

Foghorn
PS: I reactived my account.

User avatar
Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

Foghorn, I'm putting you on my watch list!

Glad you are back! Knock em dead!

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Jted1785
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:02 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jted1785 »

I think the market will remain bullish until late May early June but take some giant dips in the summer when the budget defecit crisis issue re-emerges.
Last edited by Jted1785 on Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

TSPKip
Posts: 1225
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 7:34 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPKip »

By definition: Bull markets: The 50 day moving average [MA] above the 200, 60 days uptrend with optimism and in several equity funds. Where this breaks down is: do we use the Simple or Exponential moving averages? The exponential and simple MA both turned down about the August 14 +-, but the Simple has not had a Golden Cross yet in the NYSE, or S fund, [went above the 200 yesterday in the Nasdaq Comp therefore needs one more day for confirmation.] The C fund's Simple crossed the 200 on January 31.

Though the Exponential MA seems to predict the market trends better, the exponential was only used since the 1960's with the prior 80 year's markets using the Simple MA for calling Bull markets.

So: if the Nasdaq Composite closes up tomorrow beyond its shadow [which I believe it will,] then the most often used MA: Simple: will have more than one major equity over the 200 by the 50 and we will, IMHO, be in a Bull market.
Seek Wisdom where it can be found.

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

Could Friday have been a short squeeze?

TSPKip
Posts: 1225
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 7:34 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPKip »

Jah: Though some did not expect the rise and had previously shorted the stock causing them to buy the stock Friday, I think some on the sidelines decided to come back into the market.
Seek Wisdom where it can be found.

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Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

Regrettably I missed this move and was skeptical about it from the start. Then I kept waiting for the market to take a breather to jump in because I didn't want to chase it, but it never came.

Its weird how back a few months ago the U.S. debt and European crisis mattered so much, and now matter so little………..

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GFCSorI
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:29 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by GFCSorI »

Ugg.. It really looks like this time Greece is going to default. My guess is I'm going to regret not going all G/F on friday. I guess we'll see but it looks pretty bad in the negotiations over there. I wonder if this will result in a hard default or orderly default. Any ideas?

User avatar
Jahbulon
Posts: 3901
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by Jahbulon »

If the current trend holds up, the markets will just shrug it off.

Do you have a link to what your watching?

TSPKip
Posts: 1225
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 7:34 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPKip »

As they still have ~40 days to make arrangements, I think this is more of the same posturing. Though, I agree with you: UGH.
Seek Wisdom where it can be found.

User avatar
GFCSorI
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:29 pm

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by GFCSorI »

Just google Greece and deal and you get a bunch of up to minute 'sky is falling' news out of Europe. Here is one link:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/fe ... sfeed=true

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