Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Official TSP Center polls.

Moderator: Aitrus

Are we in a Bull Market, or a Bull Trap?

Bull Market
45
62%
Bear Trap
28
38%
 
Total votes: 73

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MLKMAN
Posts: 435
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MLKMAN »

sludg wrote:See the problem is you didn't ask a question that warranted an answer. The question you asked...

So if the world is going to go into another scenario like the Great Depression, I should just buy and hold through it and keep buying shares and in another 10 years I'll be ahead of the game right?


This is more of a question not looking for an answer due to the sarcastic nature that it was presented. Flight attacked your service in a different thread and you 2 are still at eachothers throats. If your service is what you say it is let the results speak for itself rather than starting a war on a forum :(

Back to the original topic of this poll i'm voting for a bull market due to it being election year and the market trend over the last month and a half.


That's your opinion sir. I would still like to know his thoughts. Is he a DCA'er? A dreamer? A hopenatist? He obviously doesn't like traders, even though he is one, and he obviously objects to people charging for a service that, speaking solely for my own service, quite a few people have found quite beneficial.
"We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations."

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flight23
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by flight23 »

Ironically I was given reputation points by Intrepid for a comment I made in a different thread which basically said if you can find a professional advisor that beats the market then they are providing you a worthwhile service for your investment. Personally I havent seen one yet that consistently beats buy and hold, with the exception of possibly TSPBlog who has maintained to this day a return that has beaten the S fund since the day he joined. He has approximately a 50% return since Sept 23,2009 vs the S fund which has a 45% return.
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MLKMAN
Posts: 435
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MLKMAN »

flight23 wrote:Ironically I was given reputation points by Intrepid for a comment I made in a different thread which basically said if you can find a professional advisor that beats the market then they are providing you a worthwhile service for your investment. Personally I havent seen one yet that consistently beats buy and hold, with the exception of possibly TSPBlog who has maintained to this day a return that has beaten the S fund since the day he joined. He has approximately a 50% return since Sept 23,2009 vs the S fund which has a 45% return.


Still bashing? Let's see if our newest mod stands behind what he said in the PM's or not........
"We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations."

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MLKMAN
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MLKMAN »

BTW, just because my join date is July 13, 2010 here, it doesn't mean I just fell off the turnip truck that day.................................
"We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations."

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MakeMe$$$$
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MakeMe$$$$ »

MLKMAN wrote:
flight23 wrote:Ironically I was given reputation points by Intrepid for a comment I made in a different thread which basically said if you can find a professional advisor that beats the market then they are providing you a worthwhile service for your investment. Personally I havent seen one yet that consistently beats buy and hold, with the exception of possibly TSPBlog who has maintained to this day a return that has beaten the S fund since the day he joined. He has approximately a 50% return since Sept 23,2009 vs the S fund which has a 45% return.


Still bashing? Let's see if our newest mod stands behind what he said in the PM's or not........


To the point of "bashing", is anything he said not a fact? Did he not include all pro services in his observation?

As to the second point. I will not debate PM stuff here. I won't even pull "da trigger" because I think you are bashing me. Both you and flight got a gentle warning from me publicly, you both have received the same privately. If you keep swinging, I'm going to end it.

You can try to drag this out in public but I have nothing to hide. My point is clear...stop the personal insults and don't perpetuate it through counter posts.

There is no need for me to defend my actions nor to continue listening to whining. I tried to be nice about it so the ball is in play. I'm not going to debate this anymore.
Don
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MLKMAN
Posts: 435
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MLKMAN »

MakeMe$$$$ wrote:
MLKMAN wrote:
flight23 wrote:Ironically I was given reputation points by Intrepid for a comment I made in a different thread which basically said if you can find a professional advisor that beats the market then they are providing you a worthwhile service for your investment. Personally I havent seen one yet that consistently beats buy and hold, with the exception of possibly TSPBlog who has maintained to this day a return that has beaten the S fund since the day he joined. He has approximately a 50% return since Sept 23,2009 vs the S fund which has a 45% return.


Still bashing? Let's see if our newest mod stands behind what he said in the PM's or not........


To the point of "bashing", is anything he said not a fact? Did he not include all pro services in his observation?

As to the second point. I will not debate PM stuff here. I won't even pull "da trigger" because I think you are bashing me. Both you and flight got a gentle warning from me publicly, you both have received the same privately. If you keep swinging, I'm going to end it.

You can try to drag this out in public but I have nothing to hide. My point is clear...stop the personal insults and don't perpetuate it through counter posts.

There is no need for me to defend my actions nor to continue listening to whining. I tried to be nice about it so the ball is in play. I'm not going to debate this anymore.


Your going to threaten me with a "time out"? Get real....................
"We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations."

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MLKMAN
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by MLKMAN »

MakeMe$$$$ wrote:
MLKMAN wrote:
flight23 wrote:Ironically I was given reputation points by Intrepid for a comment I made in a different thread which basically said if you can find a professional advisor that beats the market then they are providing you a worthwhile service for your investment. Personally I havent seen one yet that consistently beats buy and hold, with the exception of possibly TSPBlog who has maintained to this day a return that has beaten the S fund since the day he joined. He has approximately a 50% return since Sept 23,2009 vs the S fund which has a 45% return.


Still bashing? Let's see if our newest mod stands behind what he said in the PM's or not........


To the point of "bashing", is anything he said not a fact? Did he not include all pro services in his observation?

As to the second point. I will not debate PM stuff here. I won't even pull "da trigger" because I think you are bashing me. Both you and flight got a gentle warning from me publicly, you both have received the same privately. If you keep swinging, I'm going to end it.

You can try to drag this out in public but I have nothing to hide. My point is clear...stop the personal insults and don't perpetuate it through counter posts.

There is no need for me to defend my actions nor to continue listening to whining. I tried to be nice about it so the ball is in play. I'm not going to debate this anymore.


And yes, what he says is NOT fact. Over a whole year basis, I beat the S fund last year and I beat it in 2010 also. This partial year return stuff means nothing unless you are trying for a monthly trophy and hand picking ones returns are just trying to make my returns look bad so that is BASHING................of course, you see things how you see them, I see them how I see them. Please don't wave your finger at me, you aren't my mother............ :roll:
"We are all faced with a series of great opportunities brilliantly disguised as impossible situations."

TSPNole
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:39 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPNole »

I just wish we had peace. Will anyone please address what might happen if Israel busts Iran in the chops, and Iran shuts down the Gulf of Hormuz in retaliation? Would everything tank? or perhaps bonds heat up because of flight to safety? and Much less, how would this affect the Euro financial situation.. One would think it would have a big impact on the Bulls vs Bears discussion... I'm still poised to dump it all into the 2050 fund. Thnx....

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sludg
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by sludg »

Nole the problem with the L funds is they are still in the stock market so you can still lose money. If you are looking to flee to safety until you are sure the world isn't going to blow itself up, the F fund is the place to be. Go check out the seasonal calculator and look at the averages for all the funds and the % gained over the years. The F fund averages roughly 7% gain per year. The big problem with the L funds is the longer the fund the more agressive in the stock market it is.

If the markets are doing good it can work out in your favor and you end up on top. If the markets head down like in 08 you won't lose as much as being 100% in but you will still lose a lot.

Then again you can always look at staying 100% S forever like romegman... I don't agree with that strategy and the only reason he made so much and is the highest account is the stock market rebound after 08, where sitting in S was truly the best option.
Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don't forget rule No. 1 ~ Warren Buffett

TSPNole
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:39 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPNole »

Thanks Sludg and Shaka! Spent a few years there in the Navy where I met my better half. You loca da kine? Wish I was back there right now on the beach....
I rode out the 08 debacle all the way down and all the way back up. Didn't have time to pay attention to it then. I agree, putting all the eggs in one basket is reallly risky. Trying to get smarter at this. F still doing ok, even though the yields went up on Friday. Interesting.

TSPKip
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPKip »

sludg: I agree with the your comments above regarding the L funds. And if I may add, as the F fund routinely is the inverse to the C and S fund action, why would one be in both the F fund and one or both C/S funds at the same time as in the L funds. They would usually cancel each others gains to some extent.

Additionally, The VIX [the inverse fund/indicator to the S&P 500 / C fund], is very bullish to the C fund when it is most bearish at a high of ~46, with the C fund routinely rising the next day. And it is most bearish to the C fund when it is most bullish at the lows of ~ 15-16, with the C fund falling in the next several days.

Incidentally, it reached the daily low of 16.10 and 16.11 during the past two days. This preceded large market declines in the past.

And as in the past two days, an open red candlestick followed by a green solid candlestick, indicators of reversal, similarly preceded the major market declines of the summer on 7/7/11 and 7/24/11.

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TSP-Guru
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSP-Guru »

In my opinion, from an economic perspective, Greece will not leave the Euro. What they are doing right now is akin to an economic bluff. There are a myriad of analogies which I could use to better illustrate this point, but will simply submit that allowing Greece to leave the EU will have much larger negative economic impact than simply providing better terms to the Greece would have.

As an aside, can anyone even fathom the message that would be sent by the EU if it allowed Greece to leave the EU? It would be saying that the EU, from inception, is nothing more than a temporary alliance that will preclude any who fall into hard times.
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TSPKip
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by TSPKip »

Guru: Though I agree that Greece will not be ejected by the EU and is negotiating utilizing the threat of mutually assured destruction as utilized successfully yet dangerously by Russia and the USA, the German electorate can be as vital a force as an internal threat to Germany as Greece is an external one.

If a hard line German government is installed by the electorate, a disorderly default by Greece may be allowed or threatened. Greece may become poor and that poverty will cause the Greek politicians to act as in Ecuador when the president decided to default [only China will provide international credit].

The dilemma as I see it is: does the EU bail out Greece because of fears of 'too big to fail' as we did the big banks and insurance companies [which has now made 'too big to fail' and perpetual dependency a reality], or, does the EU allow Greek bankruptcy [includes a 100% haircut by investors of Greek debt] thereby discouraging future investment as in Lehman Brothers, or, does the Greek government allow a controlled default with some haircut [80%] to investors one time and austerity measures which will allow an acceptable debt to GDP ratio [as the FDIC takes over small banks]?
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flight23
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Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by flight23 »

TSPKip I agree with most of what you are saying but the other factor here is that countries in the Euro like Germany who have benefited from the Euro (due to it being lower in value than what the Deutsch Mark would have been) are trying to have their cake and eat it too. They have enjoyed years of prosperity selling German cars and other exports due to a currency that was undervalued relative to their economy, all the while essentially accumulating Euros in Germany while countries with weak economies like Greece hemorrhaged Euros because the Euro was overvalued relative to what a true Greek currency should be valued at.

Now, Germany wants Greece to make major austerity cuts and essentially become a poor country without making any sacrifice for the good of the Euro. The ECB should be taking a partial haircut on their debt as well, essentially meaning the stronger economies in the Euro shoulder a bit of the burden of the system they have created.
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EpicWin
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Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 10:17 am

Re: Poll Question: Bull Market or Bear Trap?

Post by EpicWin »

Is the poll officially about a bull market and a bear trap? I suppose it's both.

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Fund Prices2022-08-05

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.98 0.01% 1.45%
F $19.05 -1.07% -8.80%
C $63.14 -0.15% -12.24%
S $67.93 0.74% -18.59%
I $33.31 -0.76% -15.55%
L2065 $12.78 -0.24% -14.10%
L2060 $12.78 -0.24% -14.10%
L2055 $12.79 -0.24% -14.09%
L2050 $26.41 -0.27% -12.04%
L2045 $12.13 -0.27% -11.26%
L2040 $44.61 -0.25% -10.41%
L2035 $11.88 -0.24% -9.47%
L2030 $39.88 -0.21% -8.47%
L2025 $11.54 -0.16% -5.76%
Linc $22.85 -0.12% -2.72%

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