Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distancing?

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stilljammi
Posts: 181
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:59 pm

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by stilljammi »

flaps wrote:Look at Sweden, they barely did any kind of social distancing and their slope is about the same as the United States. Their schools and restaurants are all still open. Maybe the initial projections were wrong and we have gone overboard with our reaction.

And with your "14 days to show symptoms, 10 days in ICU (live or die)" quote, you make it sound like every person who gets it ends up in the hospital which is not the case at all. It is very far from it.
Lol, Sweden is the country you're going to use to demonstrate that social distancing isn't effective?
The government has advised Swedes to work from home when possible and avoid crowded places like bars and restaurants, but it has stopped short of imposing formal restrictions, urging its citizens to "behave like adults" rather than fining them for leaving their homes without good reason.

By contrast, Sweden's neighbours - Denmark, Finland and Norway - were among the first European states to impose lockdowns when the COVID-19 pandemic began.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/is- ... gy-working

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

tspwizard1
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Jan 23, 2016 5:33 pm

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by tspwizard1 »

stilljammi wrote:
flaps wrote:Look at Sweden, they barely did any kind of social distancing and their slope is about the same as the United States. Their schools and restaurants are all still open. Maybe the initial projections were wrong and we have gone overboard with our reaction.

And with your "14 days to show symptoms, 10 days in ICU (live or die)" quote, you make it sound like every person who gets it ends up in the hospital which is not the case at all. It is very far from it.
Lol, Sweden is the country you're going to use to demonstrate that social distancing isn't effective?
The government has advised Swedes to work from home when possible and avoid crowded places like bars and restaurants, but it has stopped short of imposing formal restrictions, urging its citizens to "behave like adults" rather than fining them for leaving their homes without good reason.

By contrast, Sweden's neighbours - Denmark, Finland and Norway - were among the first European states to impose lockdowns when the COVID-19 pandemic began.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/is- ... gy-working

Image
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The virus has 23-24 days to resolution, live or die. During that first 14 day window, if you are infected, you will spread the virus. With hosts available = no social distancing, 1 infected person can infect 53,000 other people in only ten cycles of the virus. This is basic math and published data.

I'm not saying everyone who gets infected goes to the hospital or dies. You can back calculate the number of people infected at different mortality rates, and at what day they were infected, by looking at how many people actually die each day.

I've done the model in an Excel spread sheet. This site won't let me upload it in excel or PDF format.

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userque
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Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by userque »

I just wanted to, imo, clarify. I see a lot of dogs, imo, barking up the wrong tree.

It's not totally, or really, imo, about the total number of deaths; or the number of deaths per capita. It's about not overrunning resources.

Automobile deaths per year aren't overrunning resources. Neither are normal flu deaths. Neither are smoking deaths.

If automobile deaths suddenly started overrunning hospitals ... yes, they'd shut sht down and figure out wtf is going on. And you'd probably be glad they did so you wouldn't have to drive.

Even with all those deaths I've mentioned, if you happen to have some sort of medical emergency at home needing medical attention, you can find resources at your nearest hospital. If they are overrun, you'll have to deal with your, or your loved one's emergency on your own.

So, overrunning resources via covid patients will also lead to more deaths from other causes.

The government, and the news, and academia are doing a horrible job of educating the public.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

TSPBuilder
Posts: 259
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by TSPBuilder »

Regularguy wrote:More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.
Cigarette smoking is estimated to cause the following: More than 480,000 deaths annually (including deaths from secondhand smoke) 278,544 deaths annually among men (including deaths from secondhand smoke) 201,773 deaths annually among women (including deaths from secondhand smoke)
At least 2.8 million people each year die as a result of being overweight or obese. The prevalence of obesity nearly tripled between 1975 and 2016. Once associated with high-income countries, obesity is now also prevalent in low- and middle-income countries.

We have some work to do. How many were TSP account holders?

I am concerned about covid and many other issues we have today. However I don't believe an idiot like me will be able to solve those problems. But I love the seasonal strategy 15565 that lead me into 100 F fund on the 12th trading date of Feb and missed 30% dip shortly after that. Talk about flattening the curve. Thank You TSP calc.
Ditto Regularguy. Very happy when #85660 pulled me out three days after the start of the down trend and put me back in the day of the bounce back up. Amazing! My regular brokerage that mirrors the TSP but utilizes inverse leveraged indexed mutual funds has me at 86%YTD.

T

Jamters
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:48 pm

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by Jamters »

It's safe! President Trump says so. Please Mr President, come visit Michigan - hold a rally of several thousand of your truly faithful. Lead them in all the greatest hits "Lock her up!" and 'Nine more years!" Feed the frenzy! Let them stand side by side - and sing along to Uncle Ted and Kid Rock and wave their confederate flags (you know you lost that war, right?) - let their unmasked freedom-spit rain down on each other. Let it soak into and permeate the air! It's perfectly safe Mr. President - you believe that. I'm sure Betsy DeVos could get you a good deal on one of her arenas in Grand Rapids. Immerse yourself in their praise and worship Mr President. You know you need that. Its food for your soul! No fake news. Just your unfiltered truth to a captive audience that loves and adores you. In the immortal words of Donald J Trump "What the hell do you have to lose?"

By the way... you will allow them to open carry, right? You will let them exercise their 2nd Amendment rights and bring their AR-15 to the rally? How else will they liberate Michigan?

Bubba
Posts: 394
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:40 am

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by Bubba »

Jamters wrote:It's safe! President Trump says so. Please Mr President, come visit Michigan - hold a rally of several thousand of your truly faithful. Lead them in all the greatest hits "Lock her up!" and 'Nine more years!" Feed the frenzy! Let them stand side by side - and sing along to Uncle Ted and Kid Rock and wave their confederate flags (you know you lost that war, right?) - let their unmasked freedom-spit rain down on each other. Let it soak into and permeate the air! It's perfectly safe Mr. President - you believe that. I'm sure Betsy DeVos could get you a good deal on one of her arenas in Grand Rapids. Immerse yourself in their praise and worship Mr President. You know you need that. Its food for your soul! No fake news. Just your unfiltered truth to a captive audience that loves and adores you. In the immortal words of Donald J Trump "What the hell do you have to lose?"

By the way... you will allow them to open carry, right? You will let them exercise their 2nd Amendment rights and bring their AR-15 to the rally? How else will they liberate Michigan?
Maybe they could inject themselves with lysol and then together close down some windmills to lessen cancer. Love it!

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by Tomanyiron »

userque wrote:I just wanted to, imo, clarify. I see a lot of dogs, imo, barking up the wrong tree.

It's not totally, or really, imo, about the total number of deaths; or the number of deaths per capita. It's about not overrunning resources.

Automobile deaths per year aren't overrunning resources. Neither are normal flu deaths. Neither are smoking deaths.

If automobile deaths suddenly started overrunning hospitals ... yes, they'd shut sht down and figure out wtf is going on. And you'd probably be glad they did so you wouldn't have to drive.

Even with all those deaths I've mentioned, if you happen to have some sort of medical emergency at home needing medical attention, you can find resources at your nearest hospital. If they are overrun, you'll have to deal with your, or your loved one's emergency on your own.

So, overrunning resources via covid patients will also lead to more deaths from other causes.

The government, and the news, and academia are doing a horrible job of educating the public.
That is right and why, I wonder. It's not like they are in cahoots together. They are pretty much antagonist. The primary and logical reason for social distancing is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. Why don't we hear that more often?
"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." Plato
"Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare." Rene Descartes

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userque
Posts: 658
Joined: Mon May 05, 2014 5:43 pm

Re: Any one else terrified about Trump easing social distanc

Post by userque »

Tomanyiron wrote:
userque wrote:I just wanted to, imo, clarify. I see a lot of dogs, imo, barking up the wrong tree.

It's not totally, or really, imo, about the total number of deaths; or the number of deaths per capita. It's about not overrunning resources.

Automobile deaths per year aren't overrunning resources. Neither are normal flu deaths. Neither are smoking deaths.

If automobile deaths suddenly started overrunning hospitals ... yes, they'd shut sht down and figure out wtf is going on. And you'd probably be glad they did so you wouldn't have to drive.

Even with all those deaths I've mentioned, if you happen to have some sort of medical emergency at home needing medical attention, you can find resources at your nearest hospital. If they are overrun, you'll have to deal with your, or your loved one's emergency on your own.

So, overrunning resources via covid patients will also lead to more deaths from other causes.

The government, and the news, and academia are doing a horrible job of educating the public.
That is right and why, I wonder. It's not like they are in cahoots together. They are pretty much antagonist. The primary and logical reason for social distancing is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. Why don't we hear that more often?
I've pondered such things for years. Here's what I've concluded:

First, poor education. Have you ever talked to some folks and wondered how tf they graduated college? "Thinking" skills aren't really taught in school.

Second, lack of leadership and accountability: Assign a task to a "group" rather than an individual, and it might not get done without someone taking the lead. Everyone will be expecting the other folks to do it.

In this case, the group is: the government, and the news, and academia.

Third, the Peter Principle: Everyone rises to their level of incompetence.


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