Unpredictable Market

[VJoe571]

This market makes no sense. Negative economic data moves the market to the positive. Are traders in control or machines? Flip a coin and pick your fund.

Very confusing.

[tyler3535]

I’ve been feeling the same way for a little over a month now. I get the market is looking forward, but this is ridiculous. Especially with China tensions flaring up again and the riots in every major city. I’ve been watching the allocation moves on this site daily. And with the unpredictability in the market right now, I’m surprised to see so many people moving 100% in a single particular fund. A lot of people have been going 100% G or F. While I agree, the market is arguably the most expensive it’s ever been, I would think a diversified approach would be the best way to play this.

[tspwizard1]

I’ve been feeling the same way for a little over a month now. I get the market is looking forward, but this is ridiculous. Especially with China tensions flaring up again and the riots in every major city. I’ve been watching the allocation moves on this site daily. And with the unpredictability in the market right now, I’m surprised to see so many people moving 100% in a single particular fund. A lot of people have been going 100% G or F. While I agree, the market is arguably the most expensive it’s ever been, I would think a diversified approach would be the best way to play this.

The situation in the United States as a whole worries me more and more everyday. And seeing this market activity with 41 million people unemployed, civil unrest, and >106,000 people dead and counting due to the virus adds to that worry. The only explanation is the feds are propping up the market and manipulating it with tons of printed money. Which is absolutely terrible. These numbers aren't real. It is all a lie. It is looking like a massive house built on chop sticks. Markets are meant to reflect real conditions. We are not dealing with the truth. We are witnessing the creation of a massive mirage.

[tyler3535]

Data has recently come out on the percentage gain of active new investors over the past couple of months. There are a lot of amateurs in the market who are sitting at home all day trading the market. They keep driving it up because they think they’re getting “great deals.” They’re going to get burned.

[anomadtoo]

indeed; all normal indicators and strategies have been out the window over the past few months; its very unnerving. Yes I'm happy to be in positive territory again, but how to follow from hear on out is hard.

[mjedlin66]

... and >106,000 people dead and counting due to the virus adds to that worry. The only explanation is the feds are propping up the market and manipulating it with tons of printed money. Which is absolutely terrible. These numbers aren't real. It is all a lie. It is looking like a massive house built on chop sticks. Markets are meant to reflect real conditions. We are not dealing with the truth. We are witnessing the creation of a massive mirage.

Roughly 7,700 Americans died every single day before the pandemic. 100k to the virus in 5 months is really not that many people by comparison.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

[tspwizard1]

... and >106,000 people dead and counting due to the virus adds to that worry. The only explanation is the feds are propping up the market and manipulating it with tons of printed money. Which is absolutely terrible. These numbers aren't real. It is all a lie. It is looking like a massive house built on chop sticks. Markets are meant to reflect real conditions. We are not dealing with the truth. We are witnessing the creation of a massive mirage.

Roughly 7,700 Americans died every single day before the pandemic. 100k to the virus in 5 months is really not that many people by comparison.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

I'm done talking. Not worth the time.

[bloobs]

Data has recently come out on the percentage gain of active new investors over the past couple of months. There are a lot of amateurs in the market who are sitting at home all day trading the market. They keep driving it up because they think they’re getting “great deals.” They’re going to get burned.

Tyler, to your point look at this link's treemap visualization:

https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec_all

Notice that for the past 2-3 weeks the hottest ETFs (represented within sectors) in green were the previous laggards (banking, energy, retail) while the fundamentally strong consumer staples, IT, and healthcare ETFs are now petering off into the red.

That indicates that there has been a rotation from solid sectors/fundamentally sound companies into the very companies that are most likely to start failing in the coming months. People are buying into companies whose existence is measured in months and even weeks from now. My assessment is that "smart money" institutions and wealthy investors are not the type to do such a rotation.

The only groups I know who would buy into fundamentally weak sector stocks are (1) day traders and (2) small time retail investors--out to make a quick in and out buck. And when day traders decide to get out, they get out fast--often leaving the small time retailers (flush with $1200 checks) left holding the proverbial bag. One can argue that's what happened in earlier this year, right?

My 2 cents, figuratively.

[mjedlin66]

I'd argue it is 106,000 in 3 months, not 5. And I'd bet you a thousand dollars based on your response I know who you voted for. >106,000 dead is nothing huh... You clearly don't know anyone who has died due to this lack of response. If you did, I bet the shoe would be on the other foot. That is the only thing that hits home to certain people. When terrible situations effect them directly, they seem to magically start caring.

I'm sorry, I thought we were discussing the impact that a statistically small amount of deaths would have on the entire US stock market, not your personal feelings on those deaths.

[Navig8tor]

... and >106,000 people dead and counting due to the virus adds to that worry. The only explanation is the feds are propping up the market and manipulating it with tons of printed money. Which is absolutely terrible. These numbers aren't real. It is all a lie. It is looking like a massive house built on chop sticks. Markets are meant to reflect real conditions. We are not dealing with the truth. We are witnessing the creation of a massive mirage.

Roughly 7,700 Americans died every single day before the pandemic. 100k to the virus in 5 months is really not that many people by comparison.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

I'd argue it is 106,000 in 3 months, not 5. And I'd bet you a thousand dollars based on your response I know who you voted for. >106,000 dead is nothing huh... You clearly don't know anyone who has died due to this lack of response. If you did, I bet the shoe would be on the other foot. That is the only thing that hits home to certain people. When terrible situations effect them directly, they seem to magically start caring.

Out of friggin CONTROL!!

For the love of Christ already!! Can people use this website for what it was designed for (TSP INVESTING), and the others who choose to partake in constant political rhetoric, punk-card pulling and personal bickering post it on some other website??

I think we all get enough of this back-and-forth, finger-pointing, burn-down-the-house bullshizz from CNN and Fox - do we have to get it here too??

[bloobs]

I'd argue it is 106,000 in 3 months, not 5. And I'd bet you a thousand dollars based on your response I know who you voted for. >106,000 dead is nothing huh... You clearly don't know anyone who has died due to this lack of response. If you did, I bet the shoe would be on the other foot. That is the only thing that hits home to certain people. When terrible situations effect them directly, they seem to magically start caring.

Out of friggin CONTROL!!

For the love of Christ already!! Can people use this website for what it was designed for (TSP INVESTING), and the others who choose to partake in constant political rhetoric, punk-card pulling and personal bickering post it on some other website??

I think we all get enough of this back-and-forth, finger-pointing, burn-down-the-house bullshizz from CNN and Fox - do we have to get it here too??

It's MJEDLIN66's call now buddy. His choice. Aitrus will be his enforcer.

[bosco7]

markets like to climb walls of worry. Some of the most rapid gains occur during those periods. I've learned that markets can also stay irrational a lot (A LOT) longer than you can remain solvent. Also, don't fight the fed. If you feel comfortable with the ROI for the current year, then wait for more rational investing levels, but what is rational? The fed has made several statements to suggest that down is now illegal. Doesn't matter if 40, 50, 100 million are unemployed. Obviously the data doesn't support the valuations. The breadth of the market also seems very fabricated, maybe only the fed is trading?

[dougellen1]

bosco nailed it. Don't fight the fed....at least for another month. Then watch out.

[bosco7]

In looking for rational areas to reenter, without regards to the seasonal strategies adopted by most, there are three gaps in the SPX from 2860 to current that I'd like to see covered, but that would also breach the current price channel with a current bottom at 2990. So who knows. Theres also a large gap around 2550. Its difficult to be nimble trading TSP.

[bloobs]

In looking for rational areas to reenter, without regards to the seasonal strategies adopted by most, there are three gaps in the SPX from 2860 to current that I'd like to see covered, but that would also breach the current price channel with a current bottom at 2990. So who knows. Theres also a large gap around 2550. Its difficult to be nimble trading TSP.

interesting. i wont or cant really do it well for tsp, but 2860 and 2550 may be good entry spx points for my iras and brokerage accounts. ill mark them. thanks.