I've poached this discussion from A QUESTION FOR USER ASTON* as it's a topic in and of itself, or at least it could be:
kilogram wrote:Lets see tomorrow if he gets lucky again.
Right now, I believe only Aston knows whether they've been mostly lucky.Bosch wrote:"Lucky?"
The guy is sitting at 53% and it's only mid June.
We've had some unprecedented swings this year, so returns will be exaggerated, in both directions, for the same performance as in previous years.
The question of luck vs skill comes up a lot in Poker tournaments. And one metric they look at is repeatability. They conclude, 'that if it's skill, tournament champions should be repeatedly winning toureys.'
But Aston appears to be new to the game ... here.
Another point is probability. Correct me if I'm wrong, but:
The odds of picking the first entry in a month, within 1 day, are about 1/7. The exit odds vary based on the entry day; but let's use 1/5.
So getting one month almost perfectly is about 1/35.
The key months so far have been Feb. and Mar. The odds of getting them both, using our average odds, rather than fitted odds, is (1/35)^2, or 1/1225.
There are 1306 members listed on the leader board right now, so it is within the realm of probability that one member, simply by luck, could have such a great return.
That said, I'd put my money on Aston's performance being more about skill than luck. Time will certainly tell.