LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

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userque
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LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by userque »

I prefer to use the Anything Goes Forum ... for ... anything. I believe all discussion should be freely made, regardless the topic.

I've poached this discussion from A QUESTION FOR USER ASTON* as it's a topic in and of itself, or at least it could be:
kilogram wrote:Lets see tomorrow if he gets lucky again.
Bosch wrote:"Lucky?"

LOL :lol:

The guy is sitting at 53% and it's only mid June. :lol:
Right now, I believe only Aston knows whether they've been mostly lucky.

We've had some unprecedented swings this year, so returns will be exaggerated, in both directions, for the same performance as in previous years.

The question of luck vs skill comes up a lot in Poker tournaments. And one metric they look at is repeatability. They conclude, 'that if it's skill, tournament champions should be repeatedly winning toureys.'

But Aston appears to be new to the game ... here.

Another point is probability. Correct me if I'm wrong, but:

The odds of picking the first entry in a month, within 1 day, are about 1/7. The exit odds vary based on the entry day; but let's use 1/5.

So getting one month almost perfectly is about 1/35.

The key months so far have been Feb. and Mar. The odds of getting them both, using our average odds, rather than fitted odds, is (1/35)^2, or 1/1225.

There are 1306 members listed on the leader board right now, so it is within the realm of probability that one member, simply by luck, could have such a great return.

That said, I'd put my money on Aston's performance being more about skill than luck. Time will certainly tell.

________________________
* viewtopic.php?f=14&p=86235#p86235

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Tomanyiron
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Tomanyiron »

userque wrote:...That said, I'd put my money on Aston's performance being more about skill than luck. Time will certainly tell.
I would say it's about 50/50. Why don't I give Aston more credit? Because I've seen this happen year after year. This is my prediction, his second half of 2020 will not be near as good. And next year people will be saying Aston who? I don't wish him bad luck, I hope him all the success in the world. And I would like to see him starts posting with input on his system, helping all members.
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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bloobs
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote: I would like to see him starts posting with input on his system, helping all members.
Technically when he posts his IFTs, is not he tangibly helping those who follows his moves?

Jus sayin.

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userque
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by userque »

userque wrote:...That said, I'd put my money on Aston's performance being more about skill than luck. Time will certainly tell.
Tomanyiron wrote:I would say it's about 50/50. Why don't I give Aston more credit? Because I've seen this happen year after year.
True. We all see that. If we knew how he did last year, that would greatly factor in. But even if someone had a bad year(s), there is still the possibility that they've found the holy grail, or at least found someone with the grail, that gives them signals; after those bad times. :)
Tomanyiron wrote:This is my prediction, his second half of 2020 will not be near as good.
As I mentioned, time will tell. Even next month will tell. Don't you believe in 'the trend is your friend.' And 'don't fight the trend.' And 'the trend works until it ends.'

So, I'll just do like Ira, and say something like:

He's currentently ravaging this market; his swing line is currently making higher highs, and higher lows.

The swing line is an indicator I developed to help determine the trend.

He's riding the upper bollinger band. 95% of the time, Fantasy TSP members' performance stays between the 20 period, 2 standard deviations, bollinger bands. That's what they're designed to do.

He could either keep riding the upper band, or fall back between the bands.

Tomanyiron wrote:And next year people will be saying Aston who? I don't wish him bad luck, I hope him all the success in the world. And I would like to see him starts posting with input on his system, helping all members.
They'll know who he is if we keep discussing him. lol.

Like bloobs says, he is helping. He doesn't have to post anything.

It'd be great if he were as helpful as you are and have been to members here, I'll admit, even though I don't follow your system! But it's possible he may not really be aware of these forums.
"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."

crondanet5
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by crondanet5 »

Both Aston and Pablo have exhausted their June IFTs and are now stuck in the G Fund for the rest of June, and their first July IFT will be out of the G rather than going into the G for a return later in July to an active Fund. It will be interesting to see how the rest of June plays out in the market and where they end up in the Leader column. It's tough managing your own real TSP Account and playing the Fantasy Game. They have both had phenomenal gains in a short amount of time. Hopefully they can save that gain in their real accounts while trying to figure out how to wisely apply their future IFTs.

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stilljammi
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by stilljammi »

Results matter. He's doing a great job and if there is a method to his madness, we have a lot to learn.

And if it's luck, maybe we can get a thread going amongst us young bucks about how best practice the dark arts of buying the dips with our very restricted domain.

Bubba
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Bubba »

Has he still not responded? I'm curious to what he's doing/smoking to get where he's at...

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Tomanyiron
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Tomanyiron »

If you had asked about mm551, (#5 @+42.24%) my opinion of skill percent would have been higher (80/20 or 70/30). He has a demonstrated history. 2018 caught him by surprise, as it did most. The other 4, no clue about. They had no Fantasy account in 2018, or they did so badly that year, they started a new one under a new name. So if you have a watch list of about 10, he should be on it, and put the other 4 in the “wait-n-see” category.

And on the Cron IFT Judgment System
crondanet5 wrote:Both Aston and Pablo have exhausted their June IFTs and are now stuck in the G Fund for the rest of June, and their first July IFT will be out of the G rather than going into the G for a return later in July to an active Fund…IFTs.
There’s a lot of ground left in June, and mm551 (F now) has another bullet to use.

But of the top 5 only garrettg and Coach45 (I’m sure watch my chart threads closely :lol: ), because both are in the S fund, and like me are going to capture today’s gains.
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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bloobs
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote: But of the top 5 only garrettg and Coach45 (I’m sure watch my chart threads closely :lol: ), because both are in the S fund, and like me are going to capture today’s gains.
T

Since the stock market is just one big gambling den anyways, may I post a poll that has everyone here place bets on whether you or Aston come out on top today :wink: ?

Roll the dice folks!!!!

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Tomanyiron
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Tomanyiron »

bloobs wrote:
Tomanyiron wrote: But of the top 5 only garrettg and Coach45 (I’m sure watch my chart threads closely :lol: ), because both are in the S fund, and like me are going to capture today’s gains.
T

Since the stock market is just one big gambling den anyways, may I post a poll that has everyone here place bets on whether you or Aston come out on top today :wink: ?

Roll the dice folks!!!!
Sure
But wait a cotton picking minute, what do I get if I win?
Is there a Beat Aston for the day Award? I'm also going for a Beat Aston for June, and Beat Aston for second half of 2020. :D
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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bloobs
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by bloobs »

Tomanyiron wrote:
bloobs wrote:
Tomanyiron wrote: But of the top 5 only garrettg and Coach45 (I’m sure watch my chart threads closely :lol: ), because both are in the S fund, and like me are going to capture today’s gains.
T

Since the stock market is just one big gambling den anyways, may I post a poll that has everyone here place bets on whether you or Aston come out on top today :wink: ?

Roll the dice folks!!!!
Sure
But wait a cotton picking minute, what do I get if I win?
Is there a Beat Aston for the day Award? I'm also going for a Beat Aston for June, and Beat Aston for second half of 2020. :D
Your wish is my command.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Tomanyiron »

Tomanyiron wrote:I would say it's about 50/50. Why don't I give Aston more credit? Because I've seen this happen year after year. This is my prediction, his second half of 2020 will not be near as good. And next year people will be saying Aston who?
Coincidentally this video was just uploaded. "5 Things All New Traders Ignore"
Take note of #1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05d2U7Zb_v0
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

sunny
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by sunny »

I hope Aston does very well in the later year.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: LUCK? SKILL? (Anything Goes forum)

Post by Tomanyiron »

bloobs wrote:T

Since the stock market is just one big gambling den anyways, may I post a poll that has everyone here place bets on whether you or Aston come out on top today :wink: ?

Roll the dice folks!!!!
Contest over, and yes I lost. Lost the first day and the 2 out of 3. I am disappointed, but knew it would be mostly just for fun.

Day to day market moves are like "Rolling the Dice". With the TSP, inter-fund transfer limitations, the best bet is to stay in the trend. When will the trend change is the tricky part. I can use a system that catches most (75-80%), but no one can get all the change dates right. If it was easy to know ahead of time, the trend would already have started.

There's NO tested and proven timing system that is perfectly accurate. As for the consequences of being wrong, that's why you're using a strategy in the first place. And you use a strategy that NEVER allows losses to keep accumulating. The million dollar question, of course, is what amount and what do you measure by? And that is getting far too complicated for this post.

bloobs, maybe you can post a poll on that question, "How Much is TOO Much" before you exit?
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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