Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

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crondanet5
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Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by crondanet5 »

as low as 1180 or do you think it will start going back up in the 1190 range? What are your charts telling you?

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evilanne
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by evilanne »

It dropped to 1213 Friday 4/28

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Jokerswild
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by Jokerswild »

evilanne wrote:It dropped to 1213 Friday 4/28

EvilAnne the original question was asking more of a specific future outlook of the S fund opposed to a daily outlook. If you look back at the DWCPF, there's alot of resistance at the 1180 or 1190. With the drop yesterday, it would appear there is going to be potential for more downward movement until there's a bounce at/near those levels. None of us have our degree in clairvoyance, I certainly wish I did. But I'm right there with cron, I think I'll wait a bit longer to pull the trigger on putting my money on the S fund (or C since they tend to work similarly) until some news changes after this weekend.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by Tomanyiron »

Cron, I’m studying hard toward that degree that Jokerswild mentioned. But for now I rely on a Ouija board I picked up at a yard sale. And it keeps pointing down for the three stock funds. And the numbers it points to are less than 1180. Sometimes it says 1173, other times it says 1025.

This chart (I posted a month ago) is still in play. When I first looked at recent tops I saw what looked like “M”s, called Double Tops. The distance between the two tops now, look about the same as Spring 2015. And something that looked like a crooked “M” last Spring.
Image
http://schrts.co/iDfe1M
So any kind of S, C or I allocation, (in my mind) it’s like counting cards at Blackjack, the odds are not good. I’m going to wait on a better hand.

I expect a push down. However day-to-day events play into that “push”. The Fed, Trump, and political uprisings all over the world can push also. (with or against)
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by Tomanyiron »

Also I would add that the Financials, (http://schrts.co/ru12gR), and Transports (http://schrts.co/ExRmJ1) (Red lines) are in the process of a deep divergence from the S&P 500. These are historical bearish indicators.
When I consider an IFT to C or S, I have difficulties ignoring them.
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

crondanet5
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by crondanet5 »

Do you know how to update old chart to reflect Friday closings?

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by Tomanyiron »

These I just posted are updated.
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

jethro
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by jethro »

Tomanyiron wrote:These I just posted are updated.


Thanks for the charts.

crondanet5
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by crondanet5 »

This could be interesting. You know, Tommie, a while back when the Seasonal Investing Plan was first introduced I suggested it was better to watch the charts to avoid downdrafts. Yes, the Fund climbed higher after the downdraft, but what if you were out of the market in the downdraft and then got back into the Seasonal Fund at some point after the downdraft turned and ride the market back up in profit mode rather than recovery? Overall the Fund investors make money but not as much if they had gotten out of the Fund and then returned. It reminds me of P.D.Q. Bach's hymn "Sheep Shall Not Safely Graze".

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Tomanyiron
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by Tomanyiron »

Cron that’s what I keep trying to do, but I keep hearing these Marines sing this song afterwards.
Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHB6muY-6WI
Prediction is hard. Either you know that, or you’re in denial about it. The reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads.

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repinda808
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Re: Tommie do you think the $DWCPF will drop

Post by repinda808 »

crondanet5 wrote:This could be interesting. You know, Tommie, a while back when the Seasonal Investing Plan was first introduced I suggested it was better to watch the charts to avoid downdrafts. Yes, the Fund climbed higher after the downdraft, but what if you were out of the market in the downdraft and then got back into the Seasonal Fund at some point after the downdraft turned and ride the market back up in profit mode rather than recovery? Overall the Fund investors make money but not as much if they had gotten out of the Fund and then returned. It reminds me of P.D.Q. Bach's hymn "Sheep Shall Not Safely Graze".


Crondanet5,

I think that sort of is the goal of mjedlin66's Daily Seasonal. Take a look. Good read and some of the past returns are insanely positive (I think I remember a 45% return in a "bad year" for the buy and holders of the equities). Of course, looking back is not always the best way to move forward. But if you're trying to side step down drafts, that could be a good place to start.
2020 Seasonal Strategy 86299

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

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