evilanne wrote:It dropped to 1213 Friday 4/28
EvilAnne the original question was asking more of a specific future outlook of the S fund opposed to a daily outlook. If you look back at the DWCPF, there's alot of resistance at the 1180 or 1190. With the drop yesterday, it would appear there is going to be potential for more downward movement until there's a bounce at/near those levels. None of us have our degree in clairvoyance, I certainly wish I did. But I'm right there with cron, I think I'll wait a bit longer to pull the trigger on putting my money on the S fund (or C since they tend to work similarly) until some news changes after this weekend.
This chart (I posted a month ago) is still in play. When I first looked at recent tops I saw what looked like “M”s, called Double Tops. The distance between the two tops now, look about the same as Spring 2015. And something that looked like a crooked “M” last Spring.
So any kind of S, C or I allocation, (in my mind) it’s like counting cards at Blackjack, the odds are not good. I’m going to wait on a better hand.
I expect a push down. However day-to-day events play into that “push”. The Fed, Trump, and political uprisings all over the world can push also. (with or against)
When I consider an IFT to C or S, I have difficulties ignoring them.
crondanet5 wrote:This could be interesting. You know, Tommie, a while back when the Seasonal Investing Plan was first introduced I suggested it was better to watch the charts to avoid downdrafts. Yes, the Fund climbed higher after the downdraft, but what if you were out of the market in the downdraft and then got back into the Seasonal Fund at some point after the downdraft turned and ride the market back up in profit mode rather than recovery? Overall the Fund investors make money but not as much if they had gotten out of the Fund and then returned. It reminds me of P.D.Q. Bach's hymn "Sheep Shall Not Safely Graze".
I think that sort of is the goal of mjedlin66's Daily Seasonal. Take a look. Good read and some of the past returns are insanely positive (I think I remember a 45% return in a "bad year" for the buy and holders of the equities). Of course, looking back is not always the best way to move forward. But if you're trying to side step down drafts, that could be a good place to start.
Pending AllocationsUnder development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".
What else"Don't ever half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
- Ron Swanson