Lottery of Sorts

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ND_Steel
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:24 pm

Lottery of Sorts

Post by ND_Steel »

This is somewhat waaayyyyy off topic, but I grew up with parents that were addicted to the lotto. Wasting my inheritance $1 at a time ;). If any of you are, here is a 'free way to play'. Major League Baseball has an App called Beat the Streak. You pick 1 to 2 players per day and if they have an official at-bat and get a hit, your 'hitting streak' continues. If they don't, you have to start over.

So here's the lottery part....if you beat Joe DiMaggio's all-time hit streak of 56 games, you win $5.6M. While this isn't the Mega-Millions of today's lotto games, I'm sure I could at least get by quite nicely on $5.6M. And, you don't need to know jack crap about baseball to play...just select 1-2 hitters per day and take a free chance. Top streak for the year wins $10g's.

Amber9132
Posts: 16
Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:16 pm

Re: Lottery of Sorts

Post by Amber9132 »

ND_Steel wrote:This is somewhat waaayyyyy off topic, but I grew up with parents that were addicted to the lotto. Wasting my inheritance $1 at a time ;). If any of you are, here is a 'free way to play'. Major League Baseball has an App called Beat the Streak. You pick 1 to 2 players per day and if they have an official at-bat and get a hit, your 'hitting streak' continues. If they don't, you have to start over.

So here's the lottery part....if you beat Joe DiMaggio's all-time hit streak of 56 games, you win $5.6M. While this isn't the Mega-Millions of today's lotto games, I'm sure I could at least get by quite nicely on $5.6M. And, you don't need to know jack crap about baseball to play...just select 1-2 hitters per day and take a free chance. Top streak for the year wins $10g's.
I’ve played this game the last few years. Good fun. But likely impossible.

My strategy was to always pick hot batters who bat in the top of the lineup (higher likelihood of 1 extra at bat) who are on the visiting team (no possibility of missing 1/9th of the game) who are facing opposite handed starters. Still the highest I ever got was in the 20s. That day my player got hurt in the first inning and only had one at bat.

If you assume that you can pick a player who has a 50/50 shot of getting a hit on a given day - your odds of being right 56 times in a row are 1.3877788e-17. Using the binomial distribution you can calculate that for a batter who has a .3 chance of getting a hit (very good) they have about a .76 chance of getting at least one hit out of four tries in a game. Even if you can increase your probability of success to .76 each and every day after 56 days you’re odds are 2.11622172e-7. So go for it, but manage your expectations lol.

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

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