Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse.

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TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse.

Post by TSPBuilder »

Greetings everyone :)

I'm just talking out loud what I'm debating and sharing because others on here have mentioned trying to apply their TSPcalc strategies on their brokerage accounts. The strategy has me in a stable money market fund at ProFunds as of the end of business yesterday and it has me there until completion of business(COB) next Tuesday.

My question is whether the trend is going slightly down and sideways like it did at the same time two and three years ago or plunging like it did last year. This is all based off of the Russell2000 index's performance(similar to the S Fund for my purposes). I've noticed today that this is the third day in the down and that the price line has crossed the 10-day Simple Moving Average(SMA). Today's ending price has every indication of ending lower than the trend line of previous lows(3/18, 4/3, 4/21, 5/6) so I am then I leaning heavily to the plunging side of the equation. Now I'm just trying to convince myself that there is enough downward momentum to justify the risk to switch to inverse mutual funds.

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bloobs
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by bloobs »

T

I am in exactly the same boat as you with what to do with my private accounts in money market funds.

1. As you said, there is clearly negative bias as of today. However, there is yet no trend to confirm either the end of a dead cat bounce--or another short-term pause in a continuing up trend.
2. Bollinger bands are too narrow to confidently predict if and when a substantial (profitable) move up or down.
3. For me, if $SPX holds below the 20 SMA through tomorrow's close, I would be more confident that it's headed down several more percentage points for the next few trading days into next week.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by TSPBuilder »

bloobs wrote:T

I am in exactly the same boat as you with what to do with my private accounts in money market funds.

1. As you said, there is clearly negative bias as of today. However, there is yet no trend to confirm either the end of a dead cat bounce--or another short-term pause in a continuing up trend.
2. Bollinger bands are too narrow to confidently predict if and when a substantial (profitable) move up or down.
3. For me, if $SPX holds below the 20 SMA through tomorrow's close, I would be more confident that it's headed down several more percentage points for the next few trading days into next week.
bloobs, bloobs, bloobs... where is that brash young man I never knew :) Roll the dice and back me up here ...because I rolled the dice and bet the market will be lower than close today on Tuesday next week. Now I have to figure out what to do with ProFunds while the TSP is in the F Fund most of June...

McWinning
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:55 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by McWinning »

I think the SPY finds support around 273 and bounces back up. Russell should be in the same boat if/when that happens. Seems like Tuesday could be right if we go sideways for a few days and then down to test it.

My plan is to exit inverse ETF when SPY hits 276 and then buy back in at some higher level; not sure where yet but at this point I'm thinking just shy of the recent high.

If it misses 276 before a turnaround, then I'll have to wait for the deeper decline. I don't think this market turns bull until we see at least 240 again, but more likely a lower low.

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bloobs
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by bloobs »

TSPBuilder wrote:
bloobs wrote:T

I am in exactly the same boat as you with what to do with my private accounts in money market funds.

1. As you said, there is clearly negative bias as of today. However, there is yet no trend to confirm either the end of a dead cat bounce--or another short-term pause in a continuing up trend.
2. Bollinger bands are too narrow to confidently predict if and when a substantial (profitable) move up or down.
3. For me, if $SPX holds below the 20 SMA through tomorrow's close, I would be more confident that it's headed down several more percentage points for the next few trading days into next week.
bloobs, bloobs, bloobs... where is that brash young man I never knew :) Roll the dice and back me up here ...because I rolled the dice and bet the market will be lower than close today on Tuesday next week. Now I have to figure out what to do with ProFunds while the TSP is in the F Fund most of June...

i am always disappointed that my shameless transparency is often mistaken for being brash or young; i am neither. i avoid rolling dice nowadays too--because anyone even conditioned pavlovian dogs can do that. i manage risk. small incremental gains with minimal swings may be boring but it still adds up to an average annual returns over 24% a year for me. aint complaining. minimal stress.

anyways for my discretionary brokerage accounts....if spx stays below 2820 through tomorrow i may get some SH to ride the spx down to the lower bollinger band, then reconsider. may get 1 to 2% gains in 1 week.



anything is possible.
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by TSPBuilder »

McWinning wrote:I think the SPY finds support around 273 and bounces back up. Russell should be in the same boat if/when that happens. Seems like Tuesday could be right if we go sideways for a few days and then down to test it.

My plan is to exit inverse ETF when SPY hits 276 and then buy back in at some higher level; not sure where yet but at this point I'm thinking just shy of the recent high.

If it misses 276 before a turnaround, then I'll have to wait for the deeper decline. I don't think this market turns bull until we see at least 240 again, but more likely a lower low.
Evening McWinning

That sounds like a good plan. I'm not sure about the deeper decline unless it will be next month when in the F. I wouldn't think so based on past experience. We'll see. Who do you have the ETF thru?

TSPBuilder
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by TSPBuilder »

bloobs wrote:
TSPBuilder wrote:
bloobs wrote:T

I am in exactly the same boat as you with what to do with my private accounts in money market funds.

1. As you said, there is clearly negative bias as of today. However, there is yet no trend to confirm either the end of a dead cat bounce--or another short-term pause in a continuing up trend.
2. Bollinger bands are too narrow to confidently predict if and when a substantial (profitable) move up or down.
3. For me, if $SPX holds below the 20 SMA through tomorrow's close, I would be more confident that it's headed down several more percentage points for the next few trading days into next week.
bloobs, bloobs, bloobs... where is that brash young man I never knew :) Roll the dice and back me up here ...because I rolled the dice and bet the market will be lower than close today on Tuesday next week. Now I have to figure out what to do with ProFunds while the TSP is in the F Fund most of June...

i am always disappointed that my shameless transparency is often mistaken for being brash or young; i am neither. i avoid rolling dice nowadays too--because anyone even conditioned pavlovian dogs can do that. i manage risk. small incremental gains with minimal swings may be boring but it still adds up to an average annual returns over 24% a year for me. aint complaining. minimal stress.

anyways for my discretionary brokerage accounts....if spx stays below 2820 through tomorrow i may get some SH to ride the spx down to the lower bollinger band, then reconsider. may get 1 to 2% gains in 1 week. anything is possible.
Forgive my weak attempt at humor to engender some small amount of camaraderie. By no means do I consider anything north of 20% to be boring returns. Kudos on the 24%!. I am hoping that TSPcalc will smooth out the wild swings in my investing process. I do great in the high momentum situations but less dependable results in the subtle gains arena like you.

Cheers!

Forgive

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bloobs
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by bloobs »

TSPBuilder wrote:
Forgive my weak attempt at humor to engender some small amount of camaraderie. By no means do I consider anything north of 20% to be boring returns. Kudos on the 24%!. I am hoping that TSPcalc will smooth out the wild swings in my investing process. I do great in the high momentum situations but less dependable results in the subtle gains arena like you.

Cheers!

Forgive
Everyone has their own style T. Whatever works for you. I plan to be out of the business in less than a decade so applying rigorous management practices (risk identification/analysis and continuous monitoring) into every decision prevents "WTF just happened" moments later--moments that may keep me from meeting my retirement goals of some day having my own personal harem, er I mean, stable of uh, um, horses.....yeah that's the ticket

Image
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

McWinning
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:55 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by McWinning »

TSPBuilder wrote:
McWinning wrote:I think the SPY finds support around 273 and bounces back up. Russell should be in the same boat if/when that happens. Seems like Tuesday could be right if we go sideways for a few days and then down to test it.

My plan is to exit inverse ETF when SPY hits 276 and then buy back in at some higher level; not sure where yet but at this point I'm thinking just shy of the recent high.

If it misses 276 before a turnaround, then I'll have to wait for the deeper decline. I don't think this market turns bull until we see at least 240 again, but more likely a lower low.
Evening McWinning

That sounds like a good plan. I'm not sure about the deeper decline unless it will be next month when in the F. I wouldn't think so based on past experience. We'll see. Who do you have the ETF thru?
Using USAA brokerage account to buy SH ETF. I liked USAA brokerage because of the fast easy transfers to/from checking. Sad that they sold to Schwab. I sold all my SH today at 25.3. Very small gain for me (1.86%), but I followed my plan and glad to get out before the transfer to Schwab in which I will lose access to my portfolio for a few days.

User avatar
bloobs
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 8:00 pm

Re: Adapting TSPcalc strategy 85660 of G Fund now vs inverse

Post by bloobs »

McWinning wrote: Using USAA brokerage account to buy SH ETF. I liked USAA brokerage because of the fast easy transfers to/from checking. Sad that they sold to Schwab. I sold all my SH today at 25.3. Very small gain for me (1.86%), but I followed my plan and glad to get out before the transfer to Schwab in which I will lose access to my portfolio for a few days.
Got some SH and RWM a few minutes ago. We'll see.....
Anger and intolerance are the enemies of correct understanding.
― Mahatma Gandhi

If it's a choice between a difficult truth and a simple lie, people will take the lie every time. Even if it kills them.
― Paul Murray

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

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