Anybody else with their thoughts?
Hope you all had a great Memorial Day and remembering those not with us was a warm thought for the day.
I always kind of liked the seasonal methods, they were clear, easy to follow and had a proven record. The only problem I had with them was the outliers, the unwelcome aberrations. You could see it occasionally, but the real big one was in 2018. You know what I’m talking about, there are few of you that had an account that year with an end of year, that doesn’t show up in red. I know, I know, seasonal is for long term average. But I just can’t stand that kind of thing, how many of you can?
In the next few weeks to months the retail investors (includes most of us) are going to face a serious market related decision. History says that retail investors are being lured into a bull trap. Yet this is a market where the unthinkable is a daily occurrence, which means that history should not be ignored, but it should be questioned.
Memorial Day is the official start of the “Summer Doldrums” season. Should we consider if the same old rules apply to the stock market in the Post New Normal? And here is why I ask. I think the recent stock rally has been mostly due to an influx of money from retail investors; mostly young people using their online trading apps, and in many cases moving stimulus money into the stock market as institutional investors who initially panic sold in response to COVID-19 have stayed on the sidelines missing the rebound.
So the big questions are: what happens if the individual retail investor is right for once? What if the worst is actually over? And what will happen to stock prices if institutional investors decide to play catch-up? By the same token, there is also the possibility that the old order will return and the recent rally fades leading to a resumption of the downtrend and yet another massacre of retail investors.
The doom and gloom is thick and for good reason as the uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis, rising geopolitical tensions (Hong Kong, China, the Middle East), the looming presidential election and their potentially epic repercussions. All theses things could crash any hope of ending the year positive.
But it’s also not out of the realm of plausibility that the situation may be improving.
Pending AllocationsUnder development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".
What else"Don't ever half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing."
- Ron Swanson