Housing Market Migration

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Tomanyiron
Posts: 4256
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Housing Market Migration

Post by Tomanyiron »

In the “Other Investments” category, I’m posting this extraordinary turn of events going on in America:

Have you got property outside of big cities. Because the combination of large cities being hit hardest with the coronavirus and the ongoing riots in the streets, along with record low mortgage rates and record stock markets driven by frantic central banks is fueling the migration of people to the suburbs and other locations where they perceive they will be safer. In other words, the markets in the form of record low mortgage rates and record high stock prices are buoying consumer balance sheets, making it possible for those who can to qualify for a mortgage and fueling the increasingly meaningful migration.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2 ... g-rebound/

“According to NAR, home sales jumped 20.7% from May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million in June.
Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic…Each of the four major regions achieved month-over-month growth.”

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aev
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Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 8:43 am

Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by aev »

I know it's nuts. I have several rent properties in the city and the price is climbing fast. out in the country even more. My land just increased at a great %. Although good I'm not looking forward to even more taxes. Looking for more write-offs just makes me work more.
changed to 84373 from trying to follow 85660

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stilljammi
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Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by stilljammi »

Long term they are saying that suburban and rural values are going to rise, urban is going to fall. I think short term, all housing is going to rise and then crash. I'm still a city boy, so I'll be looking forward to the drop in prices for condos. Corona will eventually pass and people will flock back to the cities like they were doing.

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mjedlin66
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Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by mjedlin66 »

Of course coronavirus will eventually pass, or will become a cat-and-mouse seasonal vaccination game like the flu.

But that doesn't mean people will move back to cities. I think teleworking is here to stay. Post-CoVID we'll see *some* companies return to the office, but I think many companies are going to either move to telework-only or at least maintain telework options. The initial investment into telework has been made, so one of the hurdles of mass adoption is cleared.

I live about an hour from Seattle so I guess you would call my area the suburbs. I am a small time landlord and property investor. We have already been seeing skyrocketing prices for 2 years now because the local transit started a "fast ferry" service which cut the trip across Puget Sound from 1 hour down to about 20 minutes. Add in the teleworking options, which is likely impacting tech-central Seattle more than most cities, and now our area looks even better to people who work over there.

I had tenants ask for an early termination. Okay, no problem. I have a property manager who handles all this stuff for me and she is extremely thorough. Relisted the property while it's still occupied. Two couples filled out applications and paid the background check fee within the first 48 hours. Lease signed on day 3.

Crazy.
Owner/creator of TSPcalc.com - "Know your numbers"

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stilljammi
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Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by stilljammi »

I agree telework is here to stay for the time being. I don't think it's permanent by any means, but this forced trial run has worked for the most part.

I still think the city offers a lot and I suspect all those incentives will not be priced in when the prices fall. We went through this before when automobiles became practical and affordable post WW2. With a whole lot of people going to the suburbs, it's just going to re-balance the population from big urban areas to a bunch of moderate-sized urban areas. The small suburb will have morphed into a small city with a downtown, business sector, etc. Folks will eventually go back to the city and gentrification will start back up. Not saying this is going to happen overnight, but long-term, it's a cycle going back and forth.

But for right now, if you own a home in the suburb, it's like owning Microsoft in the 90s.

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IRQVET
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Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by IRQVET »

We fell victim to this very situation (victim isn't the right term, but the correct term escapes me at the moment). We were told by our realtor last month what she felt she could sell our home for, and my jaw hit the floor. I thought there is NO WAY my house could sell for that high.

She explained our area (Southern Oregon) is getting squeezed right now from both north and south. The Californian's are moving north (which isn't anything new) but with Covid, everybody north in the bigger cities of Portland, Seattle, and Salem are trying to leave due to the lawlessness and fears around covid. Which is ultimately driving up costs here, even when the appraised value doesn't come close to the asking price. I was apprehensive, very apprehensive, and my gut told me my realtor was being greedy.

Fast forward 24 hours, and I was wrong! We got one full price offer (at the crazy price) and one offer that was $25K (over the crazy price). I'm sitting here shacking my head in disbelief. Got the skinny on both offers, and they both came from people in the Portland metro area. 50 somethings just trying to escape the madness.

Like I said, "victim" isn't the right term as obviously I'm benefiting from this nonsense, but the housing markets in the rural areas are white hot right now. Its hard to believe what people are willing to pay to live rural.
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer.

Midway
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Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:09 pm

Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by Midway »

If you sell your house, where will you go? Seems like everywhere I would like to move has been discovered and is more expensive than where I am now.

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Tomanyiron
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:39 am

Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by Tomanyiron »

Midway wrote:If you sell your house, where will you go? Seems like everywhere I would like to move has been discovered and is more expensive than where I am now.
How far do you want to move, and what do you want to be near? This is short list, of cities to be in or near to, IMHO.
If California, then Bakersfield or Escondido
Arizona, Mesa.
Oregon, Bend
Colorado, Boulder or Colorado Springs
Montana, Bozeman
Iowa, Iowa City
South Dakota, Sioux Falls
Nebraska, Lincoln
Kansas, Overland Park
Texas, Arlington
Oklahoma, Oklahoma City
North Carolina, Asheville
South Carolina, Greenville

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IRQVET
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Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 12:45 am

Re: Housing Market Migration

Post by IRQVET »

I'm moving from the left coast to the south east, more specifically, the gulf coast. Selling on the west coast, I can darn near buy a place outright or have next to nothing for a mortgage. (fingers crossed)
Operation Iraqi Freedom Veteran
Disclaimer: The contents of this thread are known to the state of California to cause cancer.

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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
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