Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

Post by Winner »

After VNDA increased more than 95% yesterday and today I bet with 100% of my cash balance that it is not going to hit $14 by tomorrow closing and place a calendar CALL spread $14 strike SELL NOV for $1.95 and BUY DEC for $2.63 for debit $.68, based on trademonster strategy I will be looking for probability profit is 100%. It have to gain more than 18% by tomorrow close just for me to buy back as a breakeven at $15.95 on NOV strike.

****

At this time spread is only $.58 (you could easily sell CALL NOV15 for $2.4 - breakeven for NOV is $16.40 by closing business of tomorrow and you still have DEC open) I'm all out of cash otherwise I will buy more.
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BigMike
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

Post by BigMike »

Winner,

I am still trying to understand all of this option trading stuff. That is why I follow your moves as best I can always in an effort to learn.

I checked on VNDA tonight and it looked like it closed at $15.80 today. What did that do to your position? I hope it didn't hurt you too bad? If I read your post correctly you were looking for it to NOT go up that much?

BigMike


BigMike
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

Post by BigMike »

skiehawk11 wrote:Big Mike, I am seeing VNDA current close at 13.04. Am I wrong on that?


Skie,

I just checked and your number appears to be correct (closed on 14/11 @ $13.04). I don't know why but when I looked last night it was showing as $15.80? I guess I must have been looking at the wrong thing. Thanks for getting me straight.

Mike

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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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I closed VNDA on Friday for $1 or 47% ($.32/$.68).

OPEN some COST PUT -> Bought JAN 2016 $115 and Sold JAN 2015 $125 for $.30 credit. This require $1,000 margin per contract expect to profit at least $500 or more on time premium (looking for 100% profit on $500 cash/$500 margin), current the time premium for $125 is more than $8.

I post buy-write strategy (viewtopic.php?f=44&t=9345), the article indicated average return is 13%, which is better than most of retiree want on they tsp return (my projection for my tsp average retun is 12% for the next 13 yrs for MRA or early out is less than a year).

On 10/31, I bought MLNX for $34.89/bought 100 shares at $36.11 and sold CALL $36 strike for per contract $1.22 (1 contract = 100 shares or $122) or 3.38% and it expired worthless. I added a new one earlier in the morning today for $40/bought stock at $41 and sold CALL DEC2013 $44 strike for $1 or 2.5%, currently worth $39.49 (closed at $40.09/CALL $44 strike last trade at $60) for anyone get in now get better price than me. I also sold additional CALL $44 strike $1 for the one I bought on 10/31 so my cost is $36.95=($34.89 - $1 (or $100) + $40 ($41 - $1)/2. So, I collect 3.38% in two weeks for the first trade. The average share cost is $38.56 (($36.11 + $41)/2) and not count the one I pocket 3.38% or $2 on $44 strike (If the stock fall I will sell lower strike to collect more money). If MLNX is trade $44 or more by DEC 20, then I have two option either let it excercise (sell my shares at $44 to collect 7.31% ($3/$41) or convert DEC $44 to JAN 2014 $45 to get at least $.30 credit (and collect additional $1 in JAN). Based on my test, which I could easily collect 2% or more per month, which is way better than left the money in TSP hope to get 12% average return or the article indicated 13% annual return.
This could apply to any stock that have options. Instead just buy and hold for long term, then why not collect additional 2% to 3% ($100+) average on top of the quarterly dividend on retirement accounts. Trade this if you don't want it pulled from you then alway watch out during the earning season - Example if the stock average move up or down is 8%, then sell the strike around 9% or 10%. By the way there is some stocks have mini options consist of 10 shares instead of 100 shares per regular contract such as AAPL. So to begin with $5K in Roth IRA you could buy 100 shares MLNX/sell 1 CALL, 10 shares APPL(Icahn KNOCK the stock down on his remark)/sell 1 mini or 200 to 300 shares on F or BAC and sell 2 or 3 contracts to collect $100 or more per month while you still own the shares that your purpose to buy and hold for long term. If you want to follow TSP, then you could apply this for C fund=SPY, F fund=AGG, I fund=EFA, and there to many close to S fund (since I'm not using this strategy on the fund and will not recommend anyone to follow tsp fund, but you could go to TSP website and get the top 10 on each fund and apply to this strategy). From this link https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fun ... trix.shtml
then select individual fund (F, C, S or I), then select *S fund information sheet (on the bottom right hand corner) and here are the top ten for S fund:

General Motors Co.
Facebook, Inc.
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
Liberty Media Corp.
Transocean, Ltd.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Liberty Global, Inc.
Bunge, Ltd.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
Liberty Interactive Corp.
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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BAC target price $15.50, then $16. I have $15 CALL open

A lot of activities for DEC 6 CALL $14 (5.3K), $15 (22.7K) and $16 (18.4K) strike
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Buy-Write Strategy: As the article I post indicated 13% annually return and here is the chance to get it within 4 weeks for 11.42% or 8 weeks for 18.23%.

Buy VNDA in 100 shares increment and sell one contract for every 100 shares DEC 2013 CALL $12 for for $1 (BID: $.90/ASK: $1.10) / JAN 2014 CALL $13 (Bid: $1/ASK: $1.2). VNDA closed at $11.63, so the cost is $10.63 or 8.6% below the closed price for a protection. If the stock close $12 or more on DEC 20, then lock in 11.42% for 4 wk by let it exercise or just convert to JAN 2014 CALL $13 for breakeven or some credit ($13=18.23%). I refer DEC with potential expire worthless (rather than $13 strike in JAN for higher chance stock will pull from me), then continue to SELL CALL to collect the monthly (INCOME) on time premium.
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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VNDA look very good for 11.42%. It is not too late to go with DEC $13 strike.

Here is another one for BUY-WRITE Strategy is F

Buy stocks and sell JAN 2014 CALL $18 strike for $17.80, very high potential the call will pull away for 6.67% since today volume for JAN $18 strike is 26,8K with 2.8K purchased within 150 minutes of trading day while majority (one investor with 24K) was bought within 10 minute after the open.

I have a credit open for SCTY - PUT
BOUGHT JAN 2015 $50 / SOLD NOV 22 $65 will adjust weekly to max out the profit. This require $1,500 margin per contact (maximum profit $1,2K). I'm looking to lock in couple hundred per contact/per week while waiting to lock in the max profit as it was trade above $65 within 13 trading days (NOV 04).


***I'm bullish on FB continue to go up above $50 by or before JAN 17,2014

So, I bought PUT JAN 2014 $45 and sold NOV 22 $50 for $1.07 credit per contracts and collect a total $3,210 for 30 contracts. I could close tomorrow as even and kept all the credit if it trade above $48 to release the margin. If I can't get out as even then I continue to roll over for NOV 29 for some additional credit.
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner wrote:On 10/31, I bought MLNX for $34.89/bought 100 shares at $36.11 and sold CALL $36 strike for per contract $1.22 (1 contract = 100 shares or $122) or 3.38% and it expired worthless. I added a new one earlier in the morning today for $40/bought stock at $41 and sold CALL DEC2013 $44 strike for $1 or 2.5%, currently worth $39.49 (closed at $40.09/CALL $44 strike last trade at $.60) for anyone get in now get better price than me. I also sold additional CALL $44 strike $1 for the one I bought on 10/31 so my cost is $36.95=($34.89 - $1 (or $100) + $40 ($41 - $1)/2. So, I collect 3.38% in two weeks for the first trade. The average share cost is $38.56 (($36.11 + $41)/2) and not count the one I pocket 3.38% or $2 on $44 strike (If the stock fall I will sell lower strike to collect more money).

Buy to close $44 strike and Sell to open $40 for $1 - Most likely will worth nothing by DEC 20. All of this bring my actual cost to $35.95 ($36.95-$1 for sold $40. My average cost per share is still $38.56, as I pocket 3.38% and another 2.59% and most likely another 2.59% for $40 strike to be worthless by 12/20. I collected average $2.61 per share or 6.77% of the actual cost for less than 5 weeks. Based on this $100K = collect $6,770 and 929 in tsp millionaire club will collect at least $67,700 for five weeks (I could live with this salary in my retirement). My estimate with ONLY 5% contribution to TSP with an average 16% per year then I will be in the club in less than 8 years with current salary without calculate for pay or step increase, but tsp calculator project (2.5% salary increase annually) I will joint them in less than 6 years - this is still an estimate and my goal is very tough to get there since I can't control the closing price and still learning even I increased my balance 3.5X since March 2009 and as I was luck to increase almost 60% in 9 months by the end of 2009 and almost double when I started tracking here from 03/2009. Either way since I started tracking here I was able to double (1X) my tsp balance, but I still need to increase 2.4X of my current balance to joint the club and my goal to reach there before my 50th birthday. By the way next year, I'm eligible to retire base on time of service for RIF, but not MRA.

Based on today closed price of MLNX anyone can get in for the cost of $35.60 (sell 1 contract $38 strike 12/20 for every 100 shares and if it trade above $38 then it will pull the shares to cover which is very high, but still lock in 5.39% for 12 trading days, if trade below $38 then guarantee 3.68%) or to hold for long term then go for the cost $37 (sell $39 strike - the chance for it close above $39 is not as high as $38 strike, so most likely to lock in 2.63% for 12 days, if it close above $39 it's still 5.13% profit).
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner wrote:Buy-Write Strategy: As the article I post indicated 13% annually return and here is the chance to get it within 4 weeks for 11.42% or 8 weeks for 18.23%.

Buy VNDA in 100 shares increment and sell one contract for every 100 shares DEC 2013 CALL $12 for for $1 (BID: $.90/ASK: $1.10) / JAN 2014 CALL $13 (Bid: $1/ASK: $1.2). VNDA closed at $11.63, so the cost is $10.63 or 8.6% below the closed price for a protection. If the stock close $12 or more on DEC 20, then lock in 11.42% for 4 wk by let it exercise or just convert to JAN 2014 CALL $13 for breakeven or some credit ($13=18.23%). I refer DEC with potential expire worthless (rather than $13 strike in JAN for higher chance stock will pull from me), then continue to SELL CALL to collect the monthly (INCOME) on time premium.

I bought 2,000 shares and sold 20 contracts the next day near the cost I mentioned above. Today, I bought 1,000 shares and sold 10 contract at $10 strike for $9.29, so my average cost is a little over $10 and if by 12/20 it trade above $10 (near $12), then I will be happy to let it pull 1,000 share from me for 7% profit (I may convert the last 10 contracts to JAN 2014 CALL $11 or $12 strike with credit and leave the 1st 20 contract to expire) since the main purpose for this trade is to bring my average cost down to $10.10. By the way there is one investor has an open JAN2014 CALL $12 strike and the transaction over $500K. This investor bet on very high potential FDA will approved in JAN and my target for this stock is between $17 to $22.
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner wrote:***I'm bullish on FB continue to go up above $50 by or before JAN 17,2014

So, I bought PUT JAN 2014 $45 and sold NOV 22 $50 for $1.07 credit per contracts and collect a total $3,210 for 30 contracts. I could close tomorrow as even and kept all the credit if it trade above $48 to release the margin. If I can't get out as even then I continue to roll over for NOV 29 for some additional credit.


After I collected additional $.80 or $2,400 for the last two weeks (12 trading days) it is finally pay off as expect to be expire worthless this week, if it is still trade below $50 by Friday, then I continue to collect estimate $.40 extra ($1,200) + $45 strike JAN 2014 is still worth $.70 or $2,100. From the start this trade require $500 margin per contact, but I only require $7,500 + Margin (Actually $7,500 - $3,210 = $4,210 as I collected at the initial trade on 11/21), then collect addition $2,400 for the last two week by convert $50 strike to the end of the following week, so my current requirement is $1,890 (or risk) and based on the JAN 2014 $45 strike is worth $2,100. So far I collect $5,610 for this bullish without even cost a penny.
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner wrote:OPEN some COST PUT -> Bought JAN 2016 $115 and Sold JAN 2015 $125 for $.30 credit. This require $1,000 margin per contract expect to profit at least $500 or more on time premium (looking for 100% profit on $500 cash/$500 margin), current the time premium for $125 is more than $8.


:idea: I posted this one on 11/18, it is not too late to get in on this one for 15 months with $500 margin to collect $7.60 premium ($760) + JAN 2016 $115 Strike will be worth at least $5 ($500) in JAN 2015 for potential to lock in at least 100% profit (based on my project that is ($760 time premium+ $500 JAN 2016)/$500 margin= 2.52 OR 252% profit. The lowest credit or market price is $.30 the middle is $.55 (try to get credit at $.55 if you can).

CLOSED PRICE FOR TODAY $120.04
JAN 2016 $115 BID: $12.05 ASK: $12.30
JAN 2015 $125 BID: $12.60 ASK: $12.85 (Time premium for this is at least $7.60 for you to collect)

Here is another way if by JAN 2015 and COST is still trade near $125 area and you decide to own it then by all me excercise your option to own it at a discount price at $112.40 (if get $.30 credit like me, the more credit you get the less it cost to own) ($125 - $12.60 = $112.40).
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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FB: 12/11 - BUY DEC 27 CALL $53 / SELL $50 DEC 13 CALL $50 FOR NET CREDIT $.03

12/12 Closed $50 this morming as a lost for $1 and still hold on $53 (currently worth $.87), so I still negative $.13 per contract.
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Winner
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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TODAY:

*Closed FB $53 strike for $2.10 to lock in profit $1.13 per contacts for 3 days trade with no money out of pocket.

*Created two butterfly spread for FB DEC 27 with potential maximum profit $2,500 - $250
PUT: $53.50/$53/$52.50 (50/100/50) for $.04 debit for total cost $200
CALL: $56.60/$57/$57.5 (50/100/50) for $.01 debit for total cost $50

*Created diagonal trade by sell PUT DEC 20/buy PUT DEC 27 $52.5 for $0.08 credit
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Re: Option picks - place some of your option here

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Winner wrote:
Winner wrote:Buy-Write Strategy: As the article I post indicated 13% annually return and here is the chance to get it within 4 weeks for 11.42% or 8 weeks for 18.23%.

Buy VNDA in 100 shares increment and sell one contract for every 100 shares DEC 2013 CALL $12 for for $1 (BID: $.90/ASK: $1.10) / JAN 2014 CALL $13 (Bid: $1/ASK: $1.2). VNDA closed at $11.63, so the cost is $10.63 or 8.6% below the closed price for a protection. If the stock close $12 or more on DEC 20, then lock in 11.42% for 4 wk by let it exercise or just convert to JAN 2014 CALL $13 for breakeven or some credit ($13=18.23%). I refer DEC with potential expire worthless (rather than $13 strike in JAN for higher chance stock will pull from me), then continue to SELL CALL to collect the monthly (INCOME) on time premium.

I bought 2,000 shares and sold 20 contracts the next day near the cost I mentioned above. Today, I bought 1,000 shares and sold 10 contract at $10 strike for $9.29, so my average cost is a little over $10 and if by 12/20 it trade above $10 (near $12), then I will be happy to let it pull 1,000 share from me for 7% profit (I may convert the last 10 contracts to JAN 2014 CALL $11 or $12 strike with credit and leave the 1st 20 contract to expire) since the main purpose for this trade is to bring my average cost down to $10.10. By the way there is one investor has an open JAN2014 CALL $12 strike and the transaction over $500K. This investor bet on very high potential FDA will approved in JAN and my target for this stock is between $17 to $22.


Today I convert DEC 2013 $10 strike to FEB 2014 $14 with $.10 credit this bring my total cost down to $10.07 per share and I will be happy to let it excercise with on Feb for almost 40% profit on 1,000 shares (10 contracts). I still have DEC 2013 $12 strike and it should be worthless by this weekend and will be wait and see where it go before I decide extra credit.

If anyone want to try for quick 1.42% to 4.36% for 2 days expire this FRIDAY, then BUY VNDA shares and sell $11 strike and it should not cost more than $10.52 per share based on the closing price. If it trade above $11 by this FRI then that guarantee 4.36% or convert like me to JAN or FEB 2014 $12 strike to get at least $.60 to $2 to maximize the profit by bring your cost down under $10 or $9 per share.
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Fund Prices2021-05-07

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.58 0.00% 0.43%
F $20.72 0.00% -2.27%
C $63.32 0.75% 13.24%
S $82.16 1.32% 10.72%
I $38.76 1.29% 9.51%
L2065 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2060 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2055 $13.84 1.02% 11.49%
L2050 $28.21 0.84% 9.30%
L2045 $12.88 0.79% 8.73%
L2040 $47.05 0.73% 8.19%
L2035 $12.44 0.67% 7.54%
L2030 $41.46 0.61% 6.91%
L2025 $11.77 0.48% 5.47%
Linc $22.89 0.23% 2.76%

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