Seasonal Musings 2021

General TSP Discussion.

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McWinning
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by McWinning »

Aitrus wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:48 am Chindsey’s Mix #1: G Fund in Jun (0.12%), 0.12% YTD, PIP 34.99%
Could you double-check the YTD on this one please?
Thanks for the updates.

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Good catch, thanks. It's 8.14%. I'll updated the post.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

For August 2021
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 July before noon EST

For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund

Since 1988: 0.39%
Last 20 years: 0.29%
Last 10 years: 0.18%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

August is arguably the second best month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.05%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.85%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.53%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.65%, PNR 60%

August is a pretty solid month for the F Fund. Arguably the first or second month of the year, depending on the time frame you’re looking at.

The best years were 2019 (2.60%), 1991 (2.12%) and 2004 (1.88%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).

C Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.45%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.02%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.04%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.81%, PNR 80%

The C Fund has the worst time of the entire year in August and September, with the two months often fighting over who is worse. The return for 2020 was 7.19% (the highest Aug return in the C Fund’s history), which really pulls the last 5 year calculations upward.

The best years were 2020 (7.19%), 2000 (6.19%) and 1994 (4.11%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.47%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.08%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.09%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.13%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 60%

The S Fund does a smidgen better than the C Fund in August, but that’s not saying much. August is still the worst month of the year for the S Fund. Like the C FUnd, the Last 5 year calculation is dragged significatnly upward due to the 7.20% return in 2020.

The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 2020 (7.20%) and 1996 (5.40%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 42%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.56%, PNR 40%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 40%

August is easily hands-down the worst month of the year for the I Fund. No other month is even close to being this bad. I’m not sure about what causes this month to be so bad for overseas markets, but whatever it is, I want no part of it.

The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2020 (5.12%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for August 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the F Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All the active Mixes run to the F Fund for August. That alone should tell you how strong the anti-market trends and history is around this time of year, as if the stats above weren’t enough.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for July 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.77% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jul Total CAGR = 0.39%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.26%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.16%
12-month PIP: 1.09%

The G Fund continues its sub-par performance. At this point, it’s -0.11% behind where it was at this time last year, and last year ended with a total return of 0.98%. 2020’s return was 0.06%.

F Fund: 1.15%, -0.37% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 0.75%, PNR 79%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 80%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 0.60%, PNR 90%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 0.66%, PNR 100%
12-month PIP: -0.52%

July is historically one of the strongest months of the year for the F Fund, and this year was no exception. 2020’s return was 1.49%.

C Fund: 2.37%, 17.96% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 1.39%, PNR 59%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 1.42%, PNR 70%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 2.60%, PNR 90%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 3.03%, PNR 100%
12-month PIP: 36.42%

The C Fund is historically hit and miss in July, and this year was a continuation to the upside. There have now been seven straight positive C Fund Julys in a row - quite the feat considering that peviously the record had been just two months. The long term PNRs are still around the 60% range, but the CAGRs are pretty good. This means that the wins are about evenly split in terms of occurrence, but the wins outpace the losses by a good deal – especially in the last decade. 2020’s return was 5.64%.

S Fund: -1.24%, 14.03% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 0.40%, PNR 50%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 0.50%, PNR 62%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 1.55%, PNR 60%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 1.75%, PNR 80%
12-month PIP: 51.07%

July is normally the worst month of the year in terms of PNR for the S Fund, and not too good in terms of CAGR either. As a result, this year’s underperformance wasn’t a big surprise. 2020’s return was 5.71%.

I Fund: 0.72%, 9.77% YTD
Jul Total CAGR = 1.32%, PNR 68%
Jul 20 year CAGR = 1.04%, PNR 65%
Jul 10 year CAGR = 1.71%, PNR 80%
Jul 5 year CAGR = 1.24%, PNR 80%
12-month PIP: 30.49%

The I Fund had a positive return this year, bringing it right to the edge of strictly meeting the “good” criteria. 2020’s return was 2.33%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies

Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.37%), 19.26% YTD, PIP 36.96%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: I Fund in Jul (0.72%), 14.84% YTD, PIP 31.89%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jul (1.15%), 12.09% YTD, PIP 31.70%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Jul (2.37%), 8.80% YTD, PIP 33.18%
Boltman's Mix: I Fund in Jul (0.72%), 1.28% YTD, PIP 20.97%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: C Fund in Jul (2.37%), 10.70% YTD, PIP 30.81%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Jul (0.13%), 12.26% YTD, PIP 26.04%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Jul (1.15%), 0.36% YTD

Most of the Mixes are in either the C or I Fund for July. Those that were in C had a solid gain, while those in I still had something to show for the month. The field is pretty spread out now, in terms of YTD. Almost all the PIPs are in the 30s. August and September look very similar for everybody, so the next time we see some decent action won’t be until the late fall.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

H3idz
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by H3idz »

Aitrus wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:12 pm For August 2021
Last chance to move: Friday, 30 July before noon EST

For this coming August, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund

Since 1988: 0.39%
Last 20 years: 0.29%
Last 10 years: 0.18%
Last 5 years: 0.19%

August is arguably the second best month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.05%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.70%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.85%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.53%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.65%, PNR 60%

August is a pretty solid month for the F Fund. Arguably the first or second month of the year, depending on the time frame you’re looking at.

The best years were 2019 (2.60%), 1991 (2.12%) and 2004 (1.88%). The worst years were 1989 (-1.48%), 1990 (-1.42%) and 1997 (-0.86%).

C Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.45%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.02%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.04%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.81%, PNR 80%

The C Fund has the worst time of the entire year in August and September, with the two months often fighting over who is worse. The return for 2020 was 7.19% (the highest Aug return in the C Fund’s history), which really pulls the last 5 year calculations upward.

The best years were 2020 (7.19%), 2000 (6.19%) and 1994 (4.11%). The worst years were 1998 (-14.47%), 1990 (-8.65%) and 2001 (-6.27%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.08%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.09%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.13%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.52%, PNR 60%

The S Fund does a smidgen better than the C Fund in August, but that’s not saying much. August is still the worst month of the year for the S Fund. Like the C FUnd, the Last 5 year calculation is dragged significatnly upward due to the 7.20% return in 2020.

The best years were 2000 (11.16%), 2020 (7.20%) and 1996 (5.40%). The worst years were 1998 (-19.38%), 1990 (-10.05%) and 2011 (-8.12%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 42%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.56%, PNR 40%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.39%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 40%

August is easily hands-down the worst month of the year for the I Fund. No other month is even close to being this bad. I’m not sure about what causes this month to be so bad for overseas markets, but whatever it is, I want no part of it.

The best years were 1992 (6.09%), 1993 (5.27%), and 2020 (5.12%). The worst years were 1998 (-12.51%), 1990 (-9.84%), and 2011 (-9.03%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for August 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the F Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

All the active Mixes run to the F Fund for August. That alone should tell you how strong the anti-market trends and history is around this time of year, as if the stats above weren’t enough.
September seasonal strategy mix available? Thanks.

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

H3idz wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:50 am September seasonal strategy mix available? Thanks.
Working on it. Should be up by this evening or tomorrow.

Short version: In September stocks historically perform badly, F/G historically perform well. Details forthcoming.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

H3idz
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by H3idz »

Aitrus wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:28 am
H3idz wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:50 am September seasonal strategy mix available? Thanks.
Working on it. Should be up by this evening or tomorrow.

Short version: In September stocks historically perform badly, F/G historically perform well. Details forthcoming.
Thank you :)

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

For September 2021
Last chance to move: Tuesday, 31 August before noon EST

For this coming September, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund

Since 1988: 0.38%
Last 20 years: 0.25%
Last 10 years: 0.16%
Last 5 years: 0.15%

September is an average month for the G Fund, nothing stellar to write home about. However, recent months haven’t performed very well at all, and that doesn’t bode well. The 2020 return was 0.06%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.60%, PNR 73%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.32%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.03%, PNR 40%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.34%, PNR 0%

Historically, September is a pretty good month for the F Fund. Prior to 2014 there were only three negative years, however, from 2014 – 2019 five of the six years were negative. This has had a pretty stiff dampening effect on the Last 10 and Last 5 stats for the F Fund’s recent history.

The best years were 2003 (2.68%), 1998 (2.36%) and 1988 (2.07%). The worst years were 1994 (-1.47%), 2008 (-1.31%) and 2005 (-1.03%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.22%, PNR 55%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.75%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.50%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.12%, PNR 80%

The C Fund has the worst time of the entire year in August and September, with the two months often fighting over who is worse. The last four years have been kind, and that’s pulled recent numbers up a bit, but the long term still isn’t pretty.

The best years were 2010 (8.92%), 1998 (6.33%) and 1996 (5.60%). The worst years were 2002 (-10.87%), 2008 (-8.94%) and 2001 (-8.05%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.12%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.98%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -1.20%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.25%, PNR 60%

August and September are often in competition for the dubious distinction of being the worst month of the year for the S Fund.

The best years were 2010 (11.47%), 1998 (7.22%) and 1997 (6.93%). The worst years were 2001 (-12.50%), 2011 (-10.73%) and 2008 (-10.32%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR -0.61%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR -0.66%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.53%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.97%, PNR 80%

Even 2016 - 2019 were all good years, September is still a bad month for the I Fund, and is currently the fourth worst month of the year.

The best years were 2010 (9.81%), 2013 (7.41%), and 1991 (5.49%). The worst years were 1990 (-14.08%), 2008 (-12.31%), and 2002 (-10.75%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for September 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Remain in the F Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the G Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the G Fund.
F All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the F Fund.

All the Mixes run to the F or G Funds for September. No surprise, given the negative historical trends over the last 30+ years for this month.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for August 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.11%, 0.88% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Aug Total CAGR = 0.38%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.25%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.16%
12-month PIP: 1.15%

The G Fund continues it’s subpar performance. 2020’s Aug return was 0.05%.

F Fund: -0.18%, -0.55% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = 0.66%, PNR 68%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.78%, PNR 70%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.36%, PNR 50%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.63%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 0.12%

The F Fund has had two negative August returns in a row, which had put a damper on the more recent year CAGR and PNR numbers. 2020’s return was -0.81%.

C Fund: 3.03%, 21.54% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = -0.35%, PNR 62%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.50%, PNR 70%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.90%, PNR 70%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 2.39%, PNR 80%
12-month PIP: 31.13%

August is normally pretty abysmal for the C Fund, but this year the C Fund had a nice return. Given that the C Fund has had abnormally high returns two years in a row, the recent numbers conflict with the longer term history. 2020’s return was 7.19%.

S Fund: 2.00%, 16.31% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = 0.14%, PNR 62%
Aug 20 year CAGR = 0.41%, PNR 60%
Aug 10 year CAGR = 0.91%, PNR 60%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 1.76%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 43.73%

Like the C Fund, the S Fund has had a couple of nice years in a row, drastically affecting the shorter time-horizon CAGR calculations. 2020’s return was 7.20%.

I Fund: 1.76%, 11.70% YTD
Aug Total CAGR = -1.30%, PNR 44%
Aug 20 year CAGR = -0.34%, PNR 45%
Aug 10 year CAGR = -0.28%, PNR 40%
Aug 5 year CAGR = 0.60%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 26.32%

The I Fund had another rare strong showing this year in August. Aside from 2020, the last time there was a return of over 1% to the upside was in 2012 with 3.29% (2016 was positive, but only by 0.08%). Despite these fantastic returns, August is still solidly the worst month of the year for this Fund. 2020’s return was 5.12%

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 19.04% YTD, PIP 37.83%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 14.64% YTD, PIP 32.73%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 11.89% YTD, PIP 32.53%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 8.60% YTD, PIP 34.02%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 1.10% YTD, PIP 21.74%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), 10.50% YTD, PIP 31.64%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Aug (0.11%), 12.39% YTD, PIP 26.11%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Aug (-0.18%), -0.55% YTD

Everybody was in the F Fund, which means that everybody took a small hit. For now, only Jahbulon’s Basic is beating the S Fund, and nobody is beating the C Fund for the year.

Something interesting happened 10 years ago that is affecting the present day Last 10 numbers. On 5 Aug 11, S&P downgraded the United States’ credit rating from AAA to AA+, which is where it reamains to this day. It was the first downgrade to the US’ credit rating since the S&P began assigning credit ratings. It served as a serious gut check for an economy that was still trying to recover from 2008. It spooked a lot of investors who were fearing another 2008-style crash.

I hadn’t started paying attention to my TSP yet, but I still remember reading the headlines. It was the event that started making me take a long, hard look at what I should be doing with my TSP account instead of leaving it in G like I had since the 2008 crash. For Aug - Sep 2011, the C Fund lost -5.44% and -7.03%. The S Fund lost -8.12% and -10.73%. The I Fund lost -9.03% and -10.55%.

How this is affecting the Last 10 numbers is that the August 2011 data is now out of the calculation, so all of the CAGRs popped upward significantly. I expect them to do so again in September if it ends up being anything but a badly negative month.

For those interested in what drove the downgrade, here’s a short synopsis:
In its report Friday, S&P ruled that the U.S. fell short:”The downgrade reflects our opinion that the ... plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.”
...
“The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed.”

However, one of S&P's explicit criticisms of the compromise was that it didn't address the biggest drivers of the nation's debt -- Social Security and Medicare -- and didn't allow for additional tax revenue.
Source:
https://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/e ... /index.htm

In short, the debt-ceiling deal that Congress passed didn’t do enough to address the overall debt, deficit, and revenue problems the US was facing at the time. In S&P’s vew, the lack of significant and meaningful government action to clean up it’s balance sheet resulted in the first downgrade by the S&P in the nation’s history, and it led to a small market crash over the next couple of months. IMO, the situation hasn’t gotten too much better since then.

An interesting side note is that it caused some serious questioning of the impartiality of the S&P itself, with the result that the CEO at the time ended up stepping down, and the next one was gone before the year was out as well.

Other reading:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... downgrades
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/standar ... d=14220820
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... VF20110806
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

strohz
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by strohz »

I always enjoy your monthly analyses, and this was particularly interesting with the extra on the credit rating change. Thanks for doing these!

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Aitrus
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Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

For October 2021
Last chance to move: Thursday, 30 September before noon EST

For this coming October, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.38%
Last 20 years: 0.25%
Last 10 years: 0.16%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

October is an average month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.06%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.37%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.07%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.06%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.32%, PNR 40%

Over the years the F Fund has had good PNRs for the most part, but there have been enough deep negatives that the CAGRs suffer a good deal. As a result, it’s a pretty “meh” month for the F Fund.

The best years were 1989 (2.45%), 1996 (2.21%) and 2001 (2.12%). The worst years were 2008 (-2.40%), 1992 (-1.30%) and 2003 (-1.00%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.17%, PNR 64%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.01%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.65%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.43%, PNR 40%

October is when the C Fund usually starts waking up after a couple of months off. It has a reputation of having some pretty bad hits, but the positive years are strong enough to overcome this detriment to result in some decent CAGRs. October also has the dubious honor of having both the best and worst monthly returns on record for the C Fund for the entire year.

The best years were 2011 (10.93%), 2002 (8.77%) and 2015 (8.45%). The worst years were 2008 (-16.83%), 2018 (-6.84%) and 1997 (-3.38%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.12%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.58%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.36%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR -2.12%, PNR 60%

If the C Fund is just waking up in October, the S Fund hits the snooze button that’s set for another few weeks. Like the C Fund, October has the worst month on record for the S Fund.

The best years were 2011 (14.09%), 2003 (7.65%) and 1998 (5.68%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.99%), 2018 (-10.06%) and 2000 (-8.17%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.90%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.55%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.02%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.84%, PNR 40%

The I Fund shrugs its shoulders and kind of says “meh” in October. There are some good years, but with some serious hits as well. The positive years aren’t enough to bring the CAGRs up into solidly reliable return territory, and the PNRs aren’t stellar.

The best years were 1990 (15.40%), 1998 (10.28%), and 2011 (9.48%). The worst years were 2008 (-20.59%), 2018 (-7.94%), and 1997 (-7.81%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for October 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the F Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Remain in the G Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Move to the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

The last three months of the year is always an interesting sprint to the finish line just after Christmas. The Mixes approach this mad scramble in different ways for the next three months as follows:

Jahbulon’s Mix: C, C, S
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C, C, S
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal: F, C, S
tmj100’s Mix: C, S, S
Boltman’s Mix: C, S, I
Chincsey’s Mix #1: G, C, S
Sell in May and Go Away: C, C, C
G All Year, S in Dec: G, G, S
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for September 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.11%, 0.99% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Sep Total CAGR = 0.37%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.23%
Sep 10 year CAGR = 0.15%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.14%
12-month PIP: 1.20%
2020’s return: 0.06%

September is normally a “meh” month for the G Fund. The G Fund is on track to have the second-worst year on record. 2020 had 0.98%, and 2012 had 1.48%. The G Fund needs to earn at least 0.16% per month for the rest of the year in order to surpass 2012’s return - something it hasn’t doone reliably since early 2019.

F Fund:
-0.86%, -1.41% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 71%
Sep 20 year CAGR = 0.22%, PNR 55%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.13%, PNR 40%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.51%, PNR 0%
12-month PIP: -0.71%
2020’s return: -0.03%

This was the fourth worst September return for the F Fund. September is historically a reliable month for the F Fund when looking at the long-term returns. However, the last half-decade has been harsh. From 1988 – 2015 there were a mere 4 negative years (PNR = 86%). However, 2016 – 2021 has been nothing but negative returns. It remains to be seen if this is the new trend for this time of year, but this six-year losing streak is now the worst in the entire history of the F Fund. Time will tell.

C Fund: -4.65%, 15.89% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.35%, PNR 53%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.57%, PNR 60%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.24%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.83%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 29.28%
2020’s return: -3.80%

Given the C Fund’s history in September, this year’s return isn’t too abnormal. It’s the 7th worst in the C Fund’s Septermber list of returns. September remains the worst month of the year for the C Fund.

S Fund: -4.00%, 11.66% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.23%, PNR 59%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.52%, PNR 55%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.48%, PNR 50%
Sep 5 year CAGR = -0.74%, PNR 40%
12-month PIP: 42.32%
2020’s return: -3.04%

The fact that this year’s negetive return barely cracks the list of top 10 worst years on record says something about the reliability of the S Fund in September, I think. Given this month’s history, this isn’t anything out of the ordinary. September remains the worst month of the year for the Fund by far.

I Fund: -2.81%, 8.56% YTD
Sep Total CAGR = -0.68%, PNR 59%
Sep 20 year CAGR = -0.28%, PNR 70%
Sep 10 year CAGR = -0.30%, PNR 60%
Sep 5 year CAGR = 0.15%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 26.04%
2020’s return: -2.60%

This month’s performance is in line with what can often be expected with this Fund at this time of year..

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.86%), 18.02% YTD, PIP 36.69%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.86%), 13.65% YTD, PIP 31.63%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Sep (-0.86%), 10.93% YTD, PIP 31.43%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.86%), 7.67% YTD, PIP 32.91%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Sep (-0.86%), 0.23% YTD, PIP 20.73%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: G Fund in Sep (0.11%), 10.63% YTD, PIP 31.70%
Sell in May and Go Away: G Fund in Sep (0.11%), 12.51% YTD, PIP 26.17%
G all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Sep (-0.86%), -1.41% YTD

Everybody in the F Fund took a small hit, while those in the G Fund had a minor gain.

I had mentioned last month that 10 years ago in August 2011, the S&P had downgraded the US’s credit rating from AAA to AA+. That had caused a small market correction over a couple of months. I noted that the August 2011 price action had fallen off the calculations for Last 10 Years, resulting in a pop in the CAGRs for that time period. I had also said that unless the returns were deeply negative for Sep 2021, we would likely see the same thing. Well, the Sep 2021 returns for stocks were somewhat negative. As a result, there was a rise in the CAGRs, although not as significant as those in August.

On a related note, Sep 2001 was a bad month for stocks as well. C Fund: -8.05%, S Fund: -12.50%, and I Fund: -9.95%. Thus, we do see a bit of a pop in the Last 20 numbers as well, but it’s not as significant. For the Last 10 timeframe, each individual year has a 10% pull on the calculation used to determine CAGR, but for Last 20, each year has just a 5% pull. This means that it would take a difference that is twice as large to have the same effect on Last 20 as we see on Last 10. The difference is even starker at the Since 1988 timeframe, where each individual year has 1/34th pull (2.94% per year), and that will decrease a bit as the years go on. 1/35th pull (2.86%) in 2022, 1/36th pull (2.78%) in 2023, and so on.

It’s an interesting real-time example of the phenomenon that John Bogle laid out in Common Sense on Mutual Funds. In the book, he explains how short-term average returns are less reliable than longer time horizons. Investors looking only at short-term returns (or relying on mutual fund firms that advertise only their Last 5 or Last 10 numbers) aren’t seeing the full context of what to expect from the market. He notes that at the 20 year mark the returns become consistent with truly long-term average returns (50+ years) to within a percentage point or two, while short term returns (as I recall, I believe he used a 7-year figure, but I could be mistaken - it’s been a while since I read the book) can easily vary widely from the long-term average.

It was reading this book in late 2011 or early 2012 - and that section of the book in particular - that gave me the first ideas for Seasonal Musings. After that, it was finding TSPCenter and the work being done here by TSPKing, Jahbulon, and others that encouraged me to formalize and structure the TSP Fund returns and compare them across various timeframes to see if any trends stood out.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

For November 2021
Last chance to move: Friday, 29 October before noon EST

For this coming November, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.36%
Last 20 years: 0.24%
Last 10 years: 0.16%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

November is one of the worst months on average month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.07%.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.37%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.24%, PNR 55%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.06%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.19%, PNR 20%

November is in the running for worst month of the year for the F Fund. The last 5 years have been particularly unkind.

The best years were 2008 (3.30%), 1990 (2.15%) and 2007 (1.88%). The worst years were 2016 (-2.35%), 2001 (-1.37%) and 1988 (-1.09%).

C Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.96%, PNR 76%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.36%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.94%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 4.63%, PNR 100%

If the starting gun for stocks sounds off sometime in October, November is when the C Fund really starts settling into a solid pace. November is arguably the best performing month of the year, depending on timeframe (April is the other month it competes against). The last negative year was 2011 with -0.21%, and before that was 2008’s market tumble. This trend of lots of good years interrupted by one or two down years seems to be the tendency for the C Fund in November over the last couple of decades.

The best years were 2020 (10.95%), 2001 (7.62%) and 1996 (7.54%). The worst years were 2000 (-7.87%), 2008 (-7.18%) and 2008 (-4.20%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.04%, PNR 76%
Last 20 years: CAGR 3.13%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 4.10%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 6.96%, PNR 100%

The S Fund really starts picking up the pace in November, with very good performance over all timeframes. Since the S Fund took a beating in December 2018, the raw calculations say that November is arguably the best or second-best month of the year if looking at just the Last 10 and Last 5 timeframe measurements.

The best years were 2020 (18.26%), 1999 (8.44%) and 2016 (7.95%). The worst years were 2000 (-17.03%), 2008 (-11.13%) and 2007 (-5.65%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.57%, PNR 61%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.19%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.49%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -2.94%, PNR 60%

Like the rest of the fall/early winter months, November is very ho-hum for the I Fund. The unique nature of Nov 2020’s outstanding return has dragged up the more recent timeframe calculations quite a bit, but it was more than likely a one-off occurrence given the I Fund’s normal performance.

The best years were 2020 (15.54%), 2004 (6.16%), and 1988 (5.85%). The worst years were 1993 (-8.86%), 2008 (-6.72%), and 1990 (-6.05%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for November 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Remain in the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the C Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

The last three months of the year are always an interesting sprint to the finish line just after Christmas. The Mixes approach this mad scramble in different ways for the last three months as follows:

Jahbulon’s Mix: C, C, S
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C, C, S
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal: F, C, S
tmj100’s Mix: C, S, S
Boltman’s Mix: C, S, I
Chindsey’s Mix #1: G, C, S
Sell in May and Go Away: C, C, C
G All Year, S in Dec: G, G, S

As you can see, several of the Mixes follow a C-S pattern for November and December. Good food for thought.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for October 2021

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 1.13% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Oct Total CAGR = 0.37%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.24%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.16%
Oct 5 year CAGR = 0.16%
12-month PIP: 1.26%
2020’s return: 0.06%

October is normally a “meh” month for the G Fund, but this month is in a four-way tie for the best month of 2021.

F Fund:
-0.04%, -1.45% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.36%, PNR 68%
Oct 20 year CAGR = -0.04%, PNR 65%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.04%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.18%, PNR 40%
12-month PIP: -0.33%
2020’s return: 0.42%

October is historically a fairly reliable month for the F Fund in terms of PNRs, but the CAGR isn’t anything special. This year was basically a wash, being well within the range of daily trade activity.

C Fund: 7.00%, 24.00% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 1.34%, PNR 65%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 1.26%, PNR 65%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 1.28%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = 0.29%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 42.88%
2020’s return: -2.66%

This is normally a decent month for the C Fund, but this year was far above the average. This was the fifth best October return since 1988 for the C Fund.

S Fund: 5.43%, 17.73% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.27%, PNR 62%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.59%, PNR 70%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.56%, PNR 70%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.30%, PNR 80%
12-month PIP: 49.31%
2020’s return: 0.50%

Historically, October is pretty flat for the S Fund, and this month has held some pretty big hits in the past. Thankfully, this year wasn’t of them. This was the fifth best on record in October for the S Fund.

I Fund: 2.46%, 11.23% YTD
Oct Total CAGR = 0.95%, PNR 62%
Oct 20 year CAGR = 0.55%, PNR 60%
Oct 10 year CAGR = 0.35%, PNR 60%
Oct 5 year CAGR = -0.96%, PNR 60%
12-month PIP: 34.48%
2020’s return: -3.97%

The I Fund normally performs only so-so in October. Still, a positive is a positive, and this month was indeed a positive, although nothing stellar in terms of the kinds of positive returns that the I Fund is capable of in October.

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: C Fund in Oct (7.00%), 26.28% YTD, PIP 50.25%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: C Fund in Oct (7.00%), 21.60% YTD, PIP 44.69%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Oct (-0.04%), 10.88% YTD, PIP 31.93%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Oct (7.00%), 15.20% YTD, PIP 46.10%
Boltman's Mix: C Fund in Oct (7.00%), 7.24% YTD, PIP 32.71%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: G Fund in Oct (0.13%), 10.77% YTD, PIP 31.80%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Oct (7.00%), 20.39% YTD, PIP 38.70%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Oct (-0.04%), -1.45% YTD

Those in stocks did very well, and boosted their YDG and PIP numbers significantly. Anybody in safety - completely understandable given the sometimes volitile nature of the market in October - missed out and fell behind. If market returns adhere to historical averages and we have Nov and Dec within the normal range of expected returns, then everybody should make it solidly into double digit range. Of course, it hasn’t always happened that both Nov and Dec have positive returns, but they’re fairly common.

For reference, here’s how many times the Funds have had positive returns in both Nov and Dec:

F Fund: 16 of 35 years since 1988 (46%)
C Fund: 20 of 35 (57%)
S Fund: 22 of 35 (63%)
I Fund: 17 of 35 (49%)

And just for fun:
C positive in Nov, S positive in Dec: 22 of 35 (63%)
S positive in Nov, C positive in Dec: 21 of 35 (60%)
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Posts: 2391
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2021

Post by Aitrus »

I'm re-posting this due to the data loss experienced by the site on 11/29 deleted the post the first time I made it.

For December 2021
Last chance to move: Tuesday, 30 November before noon EST

For this coming December, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.39%
Last 20 years: 0.26%
Last 10 years: 0.17%
Last 5 years: 0.28%

December is a so-so month for the G Fund. The 2020 return was 0.07%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.56%, PNR 70%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.39%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.27%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.51%, PNR 80%

December isn’t a good month for the F Fund. Just kind of “meh” in terms of both PNR and CAGR on most time measurements.

The best years were 2008 (3.73%), 1991 (2.96%) and 2002 (2.08%). The worst years were 2009 (-1.55%), 2010 (-1.05%) and 1996 (-0.93%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.57%, PNR 82%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.83%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.30%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.07%, PNR 80%

December is normally one of the best months of the year for the C Fund, but a trio of negative results in 2014 (-0.24%), 2015 (-1.57%), and 2018’s abominable -9.03% have made significant impacts on more recent CAGR/PNR calculations. However, the long-term trend remains intact: December is still a good bet for the C Fund.

The best years were 1991 (11.41%), 2010 (6.68%) and 1999 (5.90%). The worst years were 2018 (-9.03%), 2002 (-5.85%) and 1996 (-1.97%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.58%, PNR 85%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.39%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.26%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.01%, PNR 80%

It’s no secret that I consider the S Fund in December to be one of the best bets in the TSP. The 2018 disastrous return, coupled with 2015’s -3.91% return, have had significant impacts on recent CAGR/PNR calculations. However, prior to that, there have been only 3 other negative returns on record: 2002 (-4.32%), 2007 (-0.40%), and 2011 (-0.04%). Of the five negative years, only three were truly impactful to any significant degree. Having 3 bad years out of 31 on record is not daunting to me at all, although I can see how it might be to others. Human tendency is to view recent events with more importance or impact than they otherwise would have if viewed on the larger scale. Looking past the recent bad returns, we see that 1988 – 2001 was a constant run of positive returns, with groupings of three or four years of very good returns separated by down years. Consider: other “good” S Fund years have as many as 9 or 10 bad years, and the month is still in “good” territory. To me, this bodes very well for the S Fund in December going forward.

The best years were 1999 (13.78%), 1991 (9.90%) and 1998 (8.46%). The worst years were 2018 (-10.70%), 2002 (-4.32%) and 2015 (-3.91%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.22%, PNR 79%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.80%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.49%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 1.56%, PNR 80%

The I Fund is pretty hit-and-miss in December, but the long term results are very positive, while more recent 2011 – 2018 returns were hit pretty hard.

The best years were 1999 (8.88%), 2010 (8.12%), and 2003 (7.68%). The worst years were 2018 (-4.82%), 2014 (-4.13%), and 2002 (-3.27%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for December 2021.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the S Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the S Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Move to the S Fund.

The S Fund’s consistently positive results for December mean that most Mixes overwhelmingly favor it for the last month of the year.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2024-03-27

FundPriceDayYTD
G $18.14 0.01% 1.00%
F $19.09 0.26% -0.68%
C $82.11 0.87% 10.42%
S $82.19 1.48% 6.61%
I $42.68 0.56% 6.21%
L2065 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2060 $16.38 0.84% 8.36%
L2055 $16.39 0.84% 8.36%
L2050 $32.73 0.71% 6.94%
L2045 $14.91 0.67% 6.56%
L2040 $54.37 0.63% 6.20%
L2035 $14.34 0.58% 5.77%
L2030 $47.66 0.53% 5.35%
L2025 $13.14 0.31% 3.40%
Linc $25.60 0.24% 2.79%

Live Charts

Pending Allocations

Under development. For now, you may view Pending Allocations by going to "fantasy TSP" and selecting "Leaderboard sort" of "Pending Allocations".