Seasonal Musings 2022

General TSP Discussion.

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

G All Year / S in Dec and F All Year / S in Dec

I came up with these Mixes during Thanksgiving Week 2014 after having a conversation with my late father. As a retired CSRS employee, he had pension but not much else to his name in terms of retirement assets. These Mixes do just what they say. The idea is to keep your money safe all year but take advantage of December’s Santa Rally to keep ahead of inflation. It’s easy to see how these Mixes are doing throughout the year: just look at the regular G and F Fund returns. Only in December would somebody following these Mixes want to make a decision whether or not to move their funds. I don’t track PIPs for these Mixes because their goal is to beat inflation, not the long-term benchmark of 12% that I aim for with the other Mixes.

Monthly Allocation: G All Year, S in December
Jan: G Fund
Feb: G Fund
Mar: G Fund
Apr: G Fund
May: G Fund
Jun: G Fund
Jul: G Fund
Aug: G Fund
Sep: G Fund
Oct: G Fund
Nov: G Fund
Dec: S Fund

Since 1988
Overall CAGR: 6.86%, PNR 94% (32 of 34)
Last 20 CAGR: 3.88%, PNR 90%
Last 10 CAGR: 2.09%, PNR 80%
Last 5 CAGR: 1.56%, PNR 60%

Best years: 19.95% (1999), 18.12% (1990), 14.21% (1998)
Worst years: -8.32% (2018), -2.11% (2015), 0.07% (2002), 1.84% (2021)

Beat G Fund 29 of 34 times (85%), for a higher gain of 79.51% since 1988.
Best yearly gain over G Fund: 13.96% (1999: 19.95% vs 5.99%)
Worst yearly loss to G Fund: -11.23% (2018: -8.32% vs 2.91%)

Monthly Allocation: F All Year, S in December
Jan: F Fund
Feb: F Fund
Mar: F Fund
Apr: F Fund
May: F Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: F Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: F Fund
Nov: F Fund
Dec: S Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 8.01%, PNR 88% (30 of 34)
Last 20 years: CAGR 5.25%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 3.31%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.01%, PNR 60%

Best years: 23.54% (1991), 18.15% (1995), 17.58% (1998)
Worst years: -12.16% (2018), -2.75% (2015), -2.5% (1994), -0.58% (2021)

Beat F Fund 26 of 34 times (76%), for a higher gain of 75.37% since 1988
Best yearly gain over F Fund: 1999, by 14.17% (Mix: 13.31% vs F Fund: -0.86%)
Worst loss to F Fund: -12.31% (2018: -12.16% vs 0.15%)

Analysis: This strategy isn’t designed to beat Buy and Hold over stocks. It’s designed to beat inflation and preserve the value of a retiree’s money. If you compare the results against the G and F Funds, you’ll see that it’s pretty solid against just leaving your money in G or F. The next safest thing in the TSP other than the G Fund is the S Fund in December, which has only 5 negative years on record as the only speed bumps slowing down a 2+% long term average return. For a very small amount of risk you jump your returns by a relatively massive amount.

For the G Fund, obviously the returns tended to be better on average in the early years of the G Fund, but what the G Fund does in a year these days is about what the S Fund does all by itself in December. The goal with these Mixes is to give a retiree a sense that he/she can preserve purchasing power with very little risk. The F Fund isn’t very risky and has better overall returns than the G Fund, but it might be riskier than many retirees feel comfortable with. Like everything else in this game called investing, it all comes down to personal risk tolerance.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

Other Mixes I’m tracking behind the scenes and won’t be positing about until the end of the year:

Skiehawk’s EMA Mix

This Mix uses a technical indicator as a stop-loss mechanism to move funds to the G Fund if the indicator triggers a move at the beginning of the month, similar to Jahbulon’s SMA Mix. I won’t be posting about this except for the End-of-Year Round-up.

Jan: C Fund
Feb: C Fund
Mar: C Fund
Apr: C Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: C Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: C Fund
Oct: F Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: C Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 10.16%, PNR 79% (27 of 34)
Last 20 years: CAGR 6.42%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 10.32%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 8.98%, PNR 80%

C&F
This Mix uses only the C and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: F Fund
Mar: C Fund
Apr: C Fund
May: C Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: C Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: C Fund
Nov: C Fund
Dec: C Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 14.13%, PNR 85% (29 of 34)
Last 20 years: CAGR 12.52%, PNR 85%
Last 10 years: CAGR 12.71%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 12.47%, PNR 80%

S&F
This Mix uses only the S and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: S Fund
Mar: S Fund
Apr: S Fund
May: S Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: F Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: F Fund
Nov: S Fund
Dec: S Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 13.28%, PNR 88% (30 of 34)
Last 20 years: CAGR 11.40%, PNR 90%
Last 10 years: CAGR 9.39%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 6.19%, PNR 80%

I&F
This Mix uses only the I and F Funds when choosing the best fund for the month.

Jan: F Fund
Feb: F Fund
Mar: I Fund
Apr: I Fund
May: F Fund
Jun: F Fund
Jul: I Fund
Aug: F Fund
Sep: F Fund
Oct: I Fund
Nov: F Fund
Dec: I Fund

Since 1988: CAGR 12.18%, PNR 82% (28 of 34)
Last 20 years: CAGR 10.87%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 7.48%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 5.94%, PNR 60%
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

A Word about TSPCalc.com

One of the reasons I keep this thread going is for the newbies to the TSPCenter forum. If you’re one of these individuals and you’ve read through this long and tedious slog of numbers and figures, then you’ve got the basics needed to understand what’s going on over at TSPCalc. A lot of people on the TSPCenter forum use TSPCalc Strategies instead of the monthly Mixes I post about here. Mixes and Strategies are the same concept, just realize that I call mine “Mixes” and TSPCalc uses the term “Strategies”.

The methodology is the same between what I explained in this thread and the approach TSPCalc takes. The main difference is that I use one data point per month: the final monthly return. In contrast, TSPCalc keeps tabs on every single day’s returns, which exponentially widens the possibilities for deciding which Fund to use. Instead of having to decide which one to use each month, you can instead decide which one to use for any given trading day throughout the year, and are only subject to the IFT limits put in place by the TSP. There’s well over 165k different Strategies as of this writing, with more being created all the time as members try out different ideas using the site’s Seasonal Calculator.

There’s another term you’ll need to learn about to better understand the TSPCalc data: Standard Deviation (or StdDev as it’s abbreviated there). It can be a difficult concept to grasp – and even harder to calculate – but the nuances can come with time. For now, just know that a lower StdDev means that the returns are bunched up closer together rather than spread out. A range of returns ranging from -5% to 10% is narrower than -10% to 20%, for example. The StdDev will probably be lower for the -5% to 10% grouping because StdDev describes the width of the bell curve that those returns would look like if they were charted out on a simple graph. In practical terms, a TSPCalc Strategy that has a high CAGR but a low StdDev means that the annual results will be clustered closer around the CAGR, which conveys a sense of consistency. On the flipside, if a Strategy has a high CAGR and an equally high (or higher) StdDev, then the Mix’s results are all over the place and the CAGR is just the middle point. There will be very high returns and very low returns. The higher the StdDev, the more variance in returns in that Mix’s history. If you want less volatility (a less wild ride on the investing roller coaster), then picking a Strategy with a low StdDev will help smooth out that ride.

If you understand the Seasonal Strategy method I’ve discussed up to this point and want to utilize the TSP program’s IFT rules to their greatest extent, then I encourage you to go over to TSPCalc. Keep an eye on the TSPCenter forums, and whenever somebody mentions a number – such as #130870 – or you see it in their signature block, head over to TSPCalc to plug it in to the calculator and take a look at the results. If you understand CAGR the way I’ve explained it here, then you’ll understand it there. It’s very much worth checking out. Think my Mix results of 15-16% are impressive in this thread? Just wait until you see some of the stuff that members have been able to figure out over there. For example, the one I mentioned above, #130870, has a 2004 - 2021 CAGR of 29.89% and 100% PNR and a StdDev of 4.73% (meaning that most of the returns for 2004 - 2021 fall between 25.16% and 34.62%). That one’s pretty good, but there are others that are even better, depending on what you’re looking for.

Recommended Reading


If you want to do more reading on investing in general and are new to the subject, I suggest you pick up a copy of If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly by William J. Bernstein.

Mr. Bernstein has often stated that he wishes to spread the information as widely as he can, so he’s made it free for Kindle on Amazon, he offers it for free on his site www.efficientfrontier.com, and he encourages others to pass it on whenever they get the chance to do so. In that same spirit of passing on great advice, I have a .pdf copy that I’ll gladly send you if you’d like to read it. Just send me a PM or email and I’ll get it to you. It’s 16 pages long and only takes an hour or so to read, and it could be the most valuable bit of reading you’ve ever done. Mr. Bernstein is a financial advisor for people who have lots of money (he doesn’t accept clients that have less than $10 million), but he wrote the pamphlet for his grandchildren - and millennials in general - because he wants future generations to be financially secure in retirement.

If all you know about investing is what you get from his book, then you’ll be better off than most people and be well equipped to take the steps needed to ensure your financial well-being in your golden years. Again, I can’t stress enough the importance of the knowledge found in this book.

Recommended Watching

I mentioned it already in the I Fund section, but I’ll repeat the recommendation here for anybody who skipped that section (not that I would blame you if you did).

If you are interested in learning more about the world’s economy and the direction it’s headed, I recommend watching presentations on YouTube given by Peter Zeihan or reading one of his books. He’s a world-renowned geopolitical analyst that gives presentations to the US military and business leaders around the world. His data is thorough, logical, and presented at a level the layman can understand easily while still being entertaining. In short, the post-WWII global free trade economy that the world has experienced for the past 7 decades is in the process of ending. The result is that the US and a few of its carefully picked economic allies will prosper, but the rest of the world won’t do very well. I would recommend one of his 45+ minute presentations to get the full gist of what’s going on and why. The shorter presentations often rely on the viewer already understanding a lot of the backstory and what’s going on in order to understand the short presentation’s context. This one from Feb 2020 is good for laying the groundwork - and is eerie in the foreshadowing of what’s happened in the world since. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jT6HFCAFDgU

Final thoughts to start off 2022

And that’s the system folks! It’s a simple concept, but there’s a TON of data there to sift through. Feel free to ask questions in this thread if there’s something you don’t understand or want clarification on. All things considered, I think this is a good system to follow. Remember my criteria for a good system?

Has positive annual returns at least 80% of the time.
Has consistent annual returns of at least 12% CAGR.
Makes sense and follows the data.

A lot of these Mixes meet those criteria, and following any of them that do would not be a bad thing in my opinion. All have data to back up their choices, and most beat buy-and-hold for those that can stomach the rough times and stick with the plan. Some Mixes are more popular than others. The most popular ones are (in order of preference as far as I can tell from forum comments and discussion) gclapper’s Mix, tmj100’s Mix, Jahbulon’s Mix and Boltman’s Mix.

In the end, this project is all about making money and having a secure retirement. If this thread helps even a few people reach that goal (myself included), then I will have considered it time well spent. I don’t get anything from doing this, other than to have other minds assess the work and point out improvements. I’m absolutely in this for the money, but I don’t get a cent for doing it. It’s kind of funny how it works out that way.

I don’t have much more to say, so I’ll leave you with this gem from one of the forum members:

“The Seasonal Strategy has its faults as do most systems. The one thing I like about the Seasonal Strategy, however, is the statistics based approach. Will it keep you from losing money? Nope...What it does give you, however, is your best chance at picking the right fund to be in at the right time based on your level of risk tolerance. You can never be 100% correct 100% of the time. But you can give yourself the best chance by using the statistics involved...you might lose some but you stand a good chance of gaining a lot more than you lose. Cheers and best of luck to you! Choose your strategy wisely!” – Chulke
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

For February 2022
Last chance to move: Monday, 31 January before noon EST

For this coming February, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.35%
Last 20 years: 0.23%
Last 10 years: 0.15%
Last 5 years: 0.16%

Feb is one of the worst months of the year for the G Fund. The 2021 return was 0.08%.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.26%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.30%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.10%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.01%, PNR 40%
2021 return: -1.45%

The F Fund does mediocre in Feb, but it’s a safer bet in terms of PNR than most of the other choices at this time of year.

The best years were 1995 (2.38%), 2020 (1.82%) and 1993 (1.73%). The worst years were 1996 (-1.75%), 1999 (-1.74%) and 1994 (-1.72%).

C Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.32%, PNR 62%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.15%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.30%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR -0.52%, PNR 60%
2021 return: 2.76%

Feb is normally a pretty “meh” month for the C Fund, but the last decade has been worse than usual – especially with 2020’s miserable return skewing the numbers.

The best years were 1998 (7.20%), 1991 (7.07%) and 2015 (5.75%). The worst years were 2009 (-10.64%), 2001 (-9.12%) and 2020 (-8.24%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 1.03%, PNR 62%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.52%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 1.69%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.03%, PNR 60%
2021 return: 5.21%

Of all the Funds the S Fund seems to have the best risk/return ratio in Feb over both the long- and short-term timeframes. The numbers are a bit hedgy and not as solid a fit into the “good month” stipulations as I’d like. Still, it’s better than the other alternatives, I think. The only other realistic choice is the F Fund, if only for the long term PNRs.

The best years were 2000 (15.55%), 1991 (9.10%) and 1998 (7.65%). The worst years were 2001 (-12.15%), 2009 (-10.22%) and 2020 (-8.01%).

I Fund
- A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.28%, PNR 59%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.09%, PNR 60%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.53%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.41%, PNR 60%
2021 return: 2.26%

The I Fund does just kind of middling in Feb. Nothing really to be proud of, but not super negative, either. Pretty much a wash risk/reward wise.

The best years were 1994 (8.33%), 2018 (6.60%), and 2006 (6.14%). The worst years were 2009 (-11.93%), 2008 (-8.52%), and 2020 (-7.74%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for February 2022.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the S Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the S Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the G Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the C Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the F Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the S Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
G All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the G Fund.

Given the tendency of February to not have a clear-cut best option, the Mixes all take different paths. Not surprising, and there aren’t really any bad choices, but not really any good ones either. Each one is a gamble one way or another. For the C and S Funds, keep in mind that the Last 10 and Last 5 numbers are heavily influenced by the dismal 2020 returns resulting from COVID.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

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Seasonal Strategy Results for January 2022

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.13%, 0.13% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Jan Total CAGR = 0.38%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.23%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.17%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 0.16%
2021’s return: 0.07%
PIP: 1.45%

This was an average return for the G Fund in terms of the last few years.

F Fund:
-2.09%, -2.09% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.53%, PNR 74%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.44%, PNR 75%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.38%, PNR 60%
Jan 5 year CAGR = -0.20%, PNR 40%
2021’s return: -0.71%
PIP: -2.83%

January is normally a solid long-term performer for the F Fund. However, it experienced a rare down month to kick off the year. It was the lowest return for Jan in the F Fund’s history.

C Fund: -5.18%, -5.18% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.34%, PNR 54%
Jan 20 year CAGR = -0.44%, PNR 55%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.22%, PNR 40%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 1.39%, PNR 40%
2021’s Return: -1.01%
PIP: 23.27%

The C Fund does kind of “meh” during this time of year over the long run. This time around it suffered a hit to start off the year deeply in the red. This is the fourth worst January in the C Fund’s history, and the worst since 2009’s start of -8.41%.

S Fund: -10.07%, -10.07% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = 0.64%, PNR 60%
Jan 20 year CAGR = 0.00%, PNR 50%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.18%, PNR 50%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 1.18%, PNR 60%
2021’s Return: 2.85%
PIP: -1.68%

This year the S Fund started off with a terroble return. This is the worst January in the S Fund’s history. The next worst years were -8.72% in 2016, and -8.53% in 1990.

I Fund: -3.96%, -3.96% YTD
Jan Total CAGR = -0.65%, PNR 46%
Jan 20 year CAGR = -0.75%, PNR 50%
Jan 10 year CAGR = 0.19%, PNR 50%
Jan 5 year CAGR = 0.68%, PNR 40%
2021’s return: -1.09%
PIP: 8.22%

January is normally in the bottom third of yearly performers for the I Fund, so this return isn’t surprising. It’s the ninth worst January in the I Fund’s history.

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: F Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 24.39%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: F Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 19.78%
TSPCenter.com's Default Setting: F Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 9.22%
tmj100’s Mix: F Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 8.51%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 6.72%
Chindsey’s #1 Mix: F in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD, PIP 9.11%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Jan (-5.18%), -5.18% YTD, PIP 19.65%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: G Fund in Jan (-2.09%), -2.09% YTD

All of the popular Mixes were in F Fund for Jan, so everybody took a hit. The market has been entirely negative to start off the year, with the G and F Funds doing the best.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

For March 2022
Last chance to move: Monday, 28 February before noon EST
For this coming March, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.39%
Last 20 years: 0.25%
Last 10 years: 0.17%
Last 5 years: 0.18%
2021 return: 0.11%

March is a fairly decent month for the G Fund. However, like the past few years, I’m not expecting very much at all.

F Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.00%, PNR 56%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.03%, PNR 50%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.14%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.13%, PNR 40%
2021 return: -1.23%

March is arguably the worst month of the year for the F Fund, especially when longer term time measures are considered. Lowest PNR and CAGRs of the entire year.

The best years were 2019 (1.93%), 2009 (1.38%) and 2000 (1.32%). The worst years were 1994 (-2.45%), 2002 (-1.66%) and 2021 (-1.23%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.93%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 1.05%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.33%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.88%, PNR 60%
2021 return: 4.38%

March is a decent month for the C Fund because the springtime season upswing often gets underway partway through the month. It’s close to being completely within “good” standards on all long-term time measures, but the more recent measurements are heavily influenced by 2020’s massive -12% loss due to COVID-19.

The best years were 2000 (9.74%), 2009 (8.81%) and 2016 (6.79%). The worst years were 2020 (-12.40%), 2001 (-6.33%) and 1994 (-4.39%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.50%, PNR 65%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.90%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.95%, PNR 50%
Last 5 years: CAGR -4.86%, PNR 20%
2021 return: -0.39%

The S Fund does fairly well during March, and for the same reasons as the C Fund. However, the long-term results leave the S Fund just a little bit behind the C Fund. This is because the mid and small-cap portions of the market sometimes don’t get their spring earning season underway until very late in the month, or sometimes not until April. Like the C Fund, the recent time calculations are heavily influenced by the 2020 crash due to COVID, although the S Fund suffered a much deeper slide than the C Fund did.

The best years were 2009 (8.64%), 2016 (8.24%) and 2010 (7.39%). The worst years were 2020 (-21.40%), 2001 (-9.18%) and 1997 (-5.22%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.63%, PNR 65%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.71%, PNR 65%
Last 10 years: CAGR -0.45%, PNR 60%
Last 5 years: CAGR -1.95%, PNR 60%
2021 return: 2.35%

The I Fund starts to do better in March, but not as good as either the C or S Funds. The recent years are likewise affected by the March 2020 COVID market reaction.

The best years were 1993 (8.56%), 2009 (7.20%), and 2016 (6.59%). The worst years were 2020 (-13.87%), 1990 (-10.54%), and 1992 (-6.75%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for March 2022.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the C Fund
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Move to the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Move to the S Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Remain in the S Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
F All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the F Fund.

With March historically showing signs of promise for the market for the coming spring, most Mixes move into stocks for the month.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

Seasonal Strategy Results for February 2022

Note: A "good" month for the F Fund is CAGR 0.5% or better, and PNR 70% or better. A "good" month for C, S and I Funds is CAGR 1% or better, and PNR 70% or better. See 2nd post in the thread for description of CAGR. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months to Negative Months.

General Funds
G Fund:
0.14%, 0.27% Year to Date (YTD), PNR remains 100%
Feb Total CAGR = 0.35%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.22%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 0.15%
Feb 5 year CAGR = 0.15%
2021’s return: 0.08%
12-month PIP: 1.51%

This month’s return was far below the historical normal average for this month. At this point, the G Fund is ahead of it’s 2021 rate, but lagging behind the historical norm.

F Fund: -1.08%, -3.15% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.23%, PNR 66%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.20%, PNR 65%
Feb 10 year CAGR = -0.02%, PNR 50%
Feb 5 year CAGR = -0.35%, PNR 40%
2021’s return: -1.45%
12-month PIP: -2.47%

The F Fund doesn’t do all spectacularly in Feb, and this year was a bad one. This was the fifth worst Feb on record since 1988.

C Fund: -2.99%, -8.02% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.23%, PNR 60%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.09%, PNR 60%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 0.57%, PNR 60%
Feb 5 year CAGR = -1.88%, PNR 40%
2021’s return: 2.76%
12-month PIP: 16.37%

Feb is arguably the third worst month of the year for the C Fund, so this result isn’t too surprising. This year saw the seventh worst year on record for the C Fund since 1988.

S Fund: 0.03%, -10.04%% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 1.03%, PNR 63%
Feb 20 year CAGR = 0.65%, PNR 65%
Feb 10 year CAGR = 1.29%, PNR 80%
Feb 5 year CAGR = -0.45%, PNR 60%
2021’s return: 5.21%
12-month PIP: -6.52%

The S Fund has a very “meh” kind of record in Feb. Given how other options perform worse - including the F Fund - the S Fund has enough stability in long-term CAGR/PNR numbers that some folks like to include it in their strategy over going to the G Fund. This year it was basically flatline, even though it was technically a positive month - albiet just barely.

I Fund: -2.61%, -6.47% YTD
Feb Total CAGR = 0.20%, PNR 57%
Feb 20 year CAGR = -0.07%, PNR 55%
Feb 10 year CAGR = -0.23%, PNR 50%
Feb 5 year CAGR = -2.21%, PNR 60%
2021’s return: 2.26%
12-month PIP: 3.06%

Like the rest of the market, the I Fund had lackluster performance for the past month.

Currently Tracked Seasonal Strategies
Jahbulon's Basic Mix: S Fund in Feb (0.03%), -2.06% YTD, PIP 18.26%
gclapper’s M3 Mix: S Fund in Feb (0.03%), -2.06% YTD, PIP 13.88%
TSPCenter.com's Seasonal Mix: G Fund in Feb (0.14%), -1.95% YTD, PIP 9.28%
tmj100’s Mix: C Fund in Feb (-2.99%), -5.02% YTD, PIP 2.44%
Boltman's Mix: F Fund in Feb (-1.08%), -3.15% YTD, PIP 7.12%
Chindsey’s Mix #1: S Fund in Feb (0.03%), -2.06%, YTD, PIP 3.73%
Sell in May and Go Away: C Fund in Feb (-2.99%), -8.02% YTD, PIP 12.95%
F all year, S in Dec Mix: F Fund in Feb (-1.08%), -3.15% YTD

The past month’s performance was largely negative. The only Funds to have positive returns were the G and S Funds, although the S Fund was a practically flat 0.3%. The year is starting off kind of slow for the market in general, and with the Russian invasion of Ukraine (and thus Russia’s contribution to the global economy being put on hold for a while due to sanctions / war efforts), that may not change anytime soon.

Russia is the #1 exporter of a number of top-tier items (natural gas, crude oil, etc.), #2 exporter in a smaller number of commodities such as wheat (depending on the weather), iron ore, nickel, paladium-group metals, etc. and #3 in coal and. Russia doesn’t really export finished goods, it exports raw commodities, so any market production based on Russian-sourced starter products is going to see a reduction in the avability of those items. In terms of energy, Europe is addicted to Russian natural gas and oil. Without it, Europe grinds to a crawl.

Ukraine is in the top 10 of the world’s wheat exporters, mainly to the Middle East and various points around the Meditteranean. While not significant on the global scale, Ukraine’s wheat is important to places that import the majority of their calories from elsewhere. This disruption will make it that much harder for people in those places to eat, and news reporting of that would likely affect global markets.

How did Europe allow this to happen? In a word: Green. In a phrase: Fear of the Greta Thunbergs of the First World. Europe was shamed into trying go Green, but it didn’t work. After shutting down all of their traditional oil relationships and trying to go green over the last decade, Europe tried to use solar and wind in places where solar and wind don’t work well enough to power first-world economies (the sun doesn’t shine very much in Germany, for example). So they had to switch back to oil and natural gas, and Russia was there with plenty of stock to sell. Since Europe was facing massive energy shortages and blackouts, they had little choice but to tap into Russian oil markets just to keep the lights on.


Combined with a declining demography that’s the fastest aging on the planet and a geography that makes it difficult to protect without a large military force, Russia feels it can do what it likes to shore up it’s borders by securing natural chokepoints and securing them with a shrinking military force. Since it has Europe by the gas tanks, Russia is gambling that it can do this with minimal negative reaction from Europe and the wider world.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Aitrus
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:03 pm

Re: Seasonal Musings 2022

Post by Aitrus »

My apologies for being late on this month's post. I've been extremely busy getting ready to end my time at one job and start up at another job. That includes a cross-country move, and all the attendant issues that come along with it - de-cluttering, selling as much as we can to lessen how much stuff we have to pay to move, etc. Fortunately, April is a great month for stocks historically speaking.

For April 2022
Last chance to move: Thursday, 31 March before noon EST

For this coming April, the individual funds have performed on average as follows:

G Fund
Since 1988: 0.38%
Last 20 years: 0.24%
Last 10 years: 0.16%
Last 5 years: 0.17%
2021 return: 0.13%

April is a so-so month for the G Fund.

F Fund
– A “good” month is a CAGR of 0.5% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 0.44%, PNR 68%
Last 20 years: CAGR 0.52%, PNR 75%
Last 10 years: CAGR 0.58%, PNR 80%
Last 5 years: CAGR 0.54%, PNR 80%
2021 return: 0.82%

The F Fund doesn’t do all that great in April. It’s pretty “Meh” on the CAGR front given the decent PNRs, but it’s still borderline in terms of meeting the “good” standards.

The best years were 1989 (2.05%), 2002 (1.89%) and 2020 (1.78%). The worst years were 2004 (-2.54%), 1990 (-0.94%) and 1994 (-0.81%).

C Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.17%, PNR 79%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.45%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.63%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 4.63%, PNR 100%
2021 return: 5.33%

April is a fantastic month for the C Fund, easily among the best 3 months of the year. It’s had a single negative year since the last significant loss in 2005: 2012 with -0.62%. That means a 2006 - 2020 run of straight positive years with one small hiccup in 2012.

The best years were 2020 (12.81%), 2009 (9.58%) and 2003 (8.26%). The worst years were 2002 (-6.06%), 2000 (-2.98%) and 1990 (-2.52%).

S Fund – A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.01%, PNR 74%
Last 20 years: CAGR 2.54%, PNR 70%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.17%, PNR 70%
Last 5 years: CAGR 4.89%, PNR 100%
2021 return: 4.23%

The S Fund has a very good history in April. 2020’s massive return of 15.81% only served to bolster this month’s already positive numbers.

The best years were 2020 (15.81%), 2009 (15.00%) and 2001 (10.58%). The worst years were 2000 (-12.03%), 2004 (-3.94%) and 2005 (-3.72%).

I Fund - A “good” month is a CAGR of 1% or better, and a PNR of 70% or better.
Since 1988: CAGR 2.65%, PNR 85%
Last 20 years: CAGR 3.10%, PNR 80%
Last 10 years: CAGR 2.78%, PNR 90%
Last 5 years: CAGR 3.40%, PNR 100%
2021 return: 3.09%

April is hands-down the best month of the year for the I Fund, no other month is even close. If I had to pick a single month to invest in the I Fund, April would be it - no question.

The best years were 2009 (12.13%), 2003 (9.82%), and 1993 (9.34%). The worst years were 2000 (-5.36%), 2010 (-2.35%), and 2004 (-2.31%).

Note: For CAGR explanation, see 2nd post in the thread. PNR is the ratio of Positive Months vs Negative Months. A Fund that was positive in March for 4 out of 10 years would have a PNR of 40%.

Individual Seasonal Mix Allocations
Here is where the various seasonal mix allocations are going to for April 2022.


Jahbulon’s Basic Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
gclapper’s M3 Mix: Move to the I Fund.
TSPCenter.com’s Seasonal Mix: Remain in the C Fund.
tmj100’s Mix: Move to the I Fund.
Boltman’s Mix: Remain in the S Fund.
Chindsey’s Mix #1: Move to the I Fund
Sell in May and Go Away: Remain in the C Fund.
F All Year, S in Dec: Remain in the F Fund.

All of the Mixes really start to deviate from each other in April. They seem to scatter to the different stock Funds, and this time of year is when we start to see bigger differences in how each one performs for the year. But they all agree on one thing: March - May is a definite positive time to be in the market.
Seasonal Musings 2022: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=19005
Recommended Reading: http://tspcenter.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=13474
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters" Epictetus

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Fund Prices2022-08-09

FundPriceDayYTD
G $16.99 0.01% 1.49%
F $19.09 -0.23% -8.61%
C $62.80 -0.42% -12.72%
S $67.39 -1.59% -19.24%
I $33.24 -0.45% -15.72%
L2065 $12.73 -0.60% -14.49%
L2060 $12.73 -0.60% -14.48%
L2055 $12.73 -0.60% -14.48%
L2050 $26.31 -0.51% -12.35%
L2045 $12.09 -0.47% -11.56%
L2040 $44.48 -0.44% -10.68%
L2035 $11.85 -0.40% -9.72%
L2030 $39.78 -0.37% -8.70%
L2025 $11.52 -0.25% -5.91%
Linc $22.83 -0.15% -2.80%

Live Charts

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